Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 03 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 04 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

...Portions of the East Coast and Ohio Valley...

An axis of anomalous PW values, 2+ standard deviations above the
mean, 2 to 2.25" PW values, will stretch from North Florida,
northeastward across the coastal Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and from
eastern New York State into New England will support locally heavy
rainfall. A slight risk remains over portions of the northern Mid-
Atlantic (including portions of NY) into southwest New England
where recent heavy rains have lowered FFG values/saturated soils.

During the day the closed low is forecast to slow/stall while
maintaining an area of anomalous PW values east of this closed
low, across the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic, Southern
New England and south into the coastal southern Mid-Atlantic. A
broad marginal risk area was depicted in this anomalous PW axis for
locally heavy rains and isolated runoff issues.

...Southwest/Southern High Plains...

Convection will become less suppressed as the ridge builds to the
east allowing for more monsoonal moisture and instability to reach
the Southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains. Locally heavy rainfall
with isolated runoff issues possible for this period. A Marginal
Risk spans from southeast Arizona into New Mexico and south-
central Colorado.

...Portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest...

Areal average of 1-2 inches expected as a surface front advances
southeastward from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper
Lakes and south through the Central Plains. Moist southerly low
level inflow into the front at this time may support organized
convection, heavy rains and isolated runoff issues. A Marginal Risk
is in affect for northern Minnesota, easter North Dakota and
northeast South Dakota.

Campbell/Roth

Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt