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United States Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook & Discussion
United States Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

United States Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Discussion

 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022
 
Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon May 23 2022 - 12Z Tue May 24 2022 

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND TEXAS...AND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF 
COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...South-Central Plains...

An amplifying upper trough over the west sharpens a trough axis 
just east of the Four Corners region and a pair of shortwave 
troughs ejecting east out ahead of this upper trough will create 
large scale ascent over the southern Plains within the low-mid 
levels courtesy of PVA and WAA. The region will reside beneath the 
diffluent right-entrance region of a sharpening downstream jet 
streak Monday evening through Tuesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, 
a strengthening area of low pressure slides south down the eastern 
New Mexico/Texas border and will combine with a strong dome of 
high pressure over the Midwest to enhance a low level jet 
transporting moisture rich, 850mb theta-e advection from south of 
Texas through the South-Central Plains with a low level focus near 
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. PWATs of 1.5", locally 1.75" will 
spread north across Texas and Oklahoma through southern Kansas 
while MUCAPE up to 1,000 J/kg sets up over northern Oklahoma and 
into southern Kansas. As 850mb frontogenesis unfolds in the Texas 
and Oklahoma Panhandles, a push of low level moisture overriding 
the front will result in blossoming areas of convection. The 
colder an drier temps aloft over the TX/OK Panhandles will support 
more of a hail threat, but farther northeast, skinny CAPE profiles 
and saturated soundings favors efficient warm rain processes. One 
note is bulk effective vertical wind shear values of 35-50 knots 
could lead to dry air entrainment, especially in the more southern 
and western flanks of the Marginal/Slight Risks areas. The robust 
vertical ascent aloft combined with suitable instability and 
plenty of moisture aloft suggests hourly rainfall rates that 
exceed 1"/hr, with a chance for some cells to generate 1.5"hr 
rates at times - both of which are supported by the 12Z HREF. Over 
the span of several hours, this could lead to instances of flash 
flooding Monday evening and continue through Monday night as the 
LLJ feeds ongoing activity. The north side of the Slight Risk area 
was trimmed south a bit over Kansas given increased confidence in 
MUCAPE being limited a bit farther south in the low level 
convergence. 

...Central Texas...

Farther south, an impulse on the southern-most flank of the upper 
trough will shift east over northern Mexico and also assist in 
drawing Gulf moisture to west TX by Monday morning. PWATs of 
1.5-1.75" will overtake the heart of Texas on Monday, which is 2 
standard deviations above normal and is also above the 90th 
percentile for the date. MLCAPE values are likely to reach 2,000 
J/kg with vigorous convection flaring up likely before during the 
morning hours in the western and southern parts of the state 
before shifting east due to southwesterly mean layer flow and 
westerly upwind propagation vectors. Rainfall rates exceeding 
2"/hr are possible and depending on the speed of the upper trough, 
various segments of convection may have a long enough residency 
time to prompt a larger flash flood response. Recent rainfall from 
Saturday and today has saturated the soils a little more as well, 
making some antecedent soil conditions a little more vulnerable in 
a area hit the hardest in recent days. For these reasons, chose to 
further expand the Slight Risk north and south given the potential 
for the LLJ Monday night to allow for extensive areas to 
regenerate activity. Considered one Slight Risk for south Texas 
through southern Kansas, but given that most of the area has been 
dry, wanted to maintain two focused areas at this time. 


...Southeast...

A quasi-stationary boundary stretching from North Carolina to the 
Deep South will have plenty of atmospheric moisture with peak 
PWATs around 2" expected to track from the central Gulf Coast, 
setting the stage for additional rounds of deep moist convection 
from the Southeast on west along the Gulf Coast. Maintained the 
Slight Risk from the central Gulf Coast well into the Southern 
Appalachians where a funneling of tropical moisture ahead of the 
upper trough currently over the central Gulf Coast continues to 
shift inland. Sufficient buoyancy in the form of MUCAPE is also 
present with values up to 2,000 J/kg. Parts of the immediate Gulf 
Coast may be more susceptible to flash flooding with soils being 
far more saturated from the weekend convective activity. There are 
also lower hourly FFG in the southern Appalachians and into the 
Tennessee Valley. Skinny CAPE profiles and light wind shear also 
bolsters the potential for efficient warm rain processes, further 
supporting an area of Slight Risk.

Jackson
 
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt





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