Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 111949Z - 112345Z
SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
possible through early evening.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
this afternoon.
..Moore.. 02/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 39697503 39597727 39497808 39297861 39027876 38647871
38157822 37727772 37477737 37357681 37327624 37597546
37947527 38287504 38927472 39397424 39607435 39667473
39697503
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]]>
Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:42:02 +0000https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0082.html/20250211
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0081.html
SPC MD 81MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0081
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2025
Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina...eastern West
Virginia...and western to central Virginia
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 111726Z - 112230Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to become more widespread in the
lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains across far northwest North Carolina,
far eastern West Virginia, and western to central Virginia through
the afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour
appear likely.
DISCUSSION...A broad swath of stratiform precipitation (largely
driven by strong warm advection between 925-700 mb) continues to
spread east/northeast across the TN Valley and into the
southern/central Appalachians. Sub-freezing temperatures throughout
the column this morning across WV/VA have resulted in several inches
of snowfall per recent reports. However, mPING reports of sleet
across northern NC/southern VA suggest that the 925-850 mb freezing
lines are beginning to migrate northward. This trend is expected to
continue through the afternoon hours as a subtle mid-level impulse
(currently over the Mid-South) continues to propagate northeast
along the mid-level baroclinic zone and augments southerly flow/warm
air advection. This will result in gradually warming mid-level
temperatures as the primary precipitation shield shifts east. At the
surface, cold air damming along the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains,
combined with very limited diurnal heating and low-level wet-bulb
cooling, has maintained sub-freezing temperatures from far northwest
NC into VA. Although surface temperatures in 12 UTC guidance appear
to be running too warm compared to 17 UTC observations, recent
RAP/HRRR solutions have captured temperature trends well and suggest
a transition from snow to sleet, and eventually freezing rain, will
begin by around 18 UTC in the immediate lee of the higher terrain.
Sleet/freezing rain should spread east through the afternoon with
freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.04 in/hour likely for most
locations (though locally higher rates are possible).
..Moore.. 02/11/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 36018168 36048189 36138204 36288208 37188155 37598122
38158082 38368054 38548010 38587977 38537922 38397875
38027804 37717768 37467757 37277762 37147771 37067797
37017821 37037856 37027879 37007932 36927975 36608042
36018168
Read more
]]>
Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:42:02 +0000https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0081.html/20250211
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
SPC Feb 11, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Latest U.S. Mesoscale Discussion
The fire danger meter is for Placerville, California, which is the location of El Dorado Weather. The meter uses the Composite Burn Index or CBI. Listed within the meter is the current temperature and humidity for Placerville, two very important factors in measuring the fire danger. Also shown for the Placerville area is the Sierra Fire Forecast Text.
The rest of the page items are National fire watching tools. This includes the Fire Advisory Map, Fire Detection Map, Forest Fire Causes, and the US Fire Detection Text.
The fire dectection text lists the state, county, nearest town to the fire, and the distance in miles from the town to the fire.
The fire advisory map list the current fire danger or fire conditions severity for the lower 48 states, and shows color coded fire severity for all the national locations.
The Fire Detection Map shows all the current wild fire detections in the United States. Also listed is the exact longitude and latitude for each fire location, the nearby towns, the type of land cover such as deciduous broadleaf forest, mixed forest, or grasslands etc for example.
The pie graph is pretty self explaintory as it stands, and demonstrates a comprehensive chart of all of the causes of forest fires.