U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 170636
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Southwest today.
This will lead to increasing mid-level flow across New Mexico and
the southern High Plains. In addition, lee cyclogenesis is expected
which will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the
Southwest and southern High Plains. As a result, breezy conditions
will develop amid 5 to 13 percent relative humidity. At this time,
the strongest winds are forecast east of the dryline beneath a
strengthening low-level jet. A dry environment with deep mixing is
expected immediately east of the dryline which should allow some of
this stronger flow to mix to the surface.
In addition, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in northern
and northeastern Montana. While fuels remain mostly unreceptive
across Montana, ERC values are nearing or exceeding the 90th
percentile in portions of north-central Montana. Therefore, a small
elevated delineation has been added across this area for this small
region of more favorable fuels.
Thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of a dryline
across west Texas into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this afternoon.
These storms will develop in an airmass with PWAT around 0.6 to 0.75
inches. Therefore, these storms should be drier, especially
initially, with the threat for lightning induced fire starts.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2022
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 170636
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Weak high pressure will build into the Southwest on Wednesday with
weak flow aloft. This should keep wind concerns mostly muted across
the region. Dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions
of southern and southeast Wyoming, but fuels are not that dry in
this region.
Some dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
Colorado and northeast New Mexico on Wednesday. Most CAM guidance
shows isolated to scattered storms developing on the higher terrain
before moving eastward in an environment with PWAT around 0.6
inches. Therefore, these storms should be dry and may result in new
fire starts.
..Bentley.. 05/17/2022
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Fire-weather concerns will generally be focused over the Southwest
into the southern/central High Plains during the extended forecast
period. Currently, confidence in the development of Critical
conditions is highest on Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday over these areas.
...Day 3/Wednesday...
A southern-stream midlevel trough and modest midlevel westerly flow
will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, where
widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop by the afternoon. While
elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible over the
region, the lack of a tighter surface pressure gradient limits
confidence in the development of critical conditions. 40 percent
probabilities have been maintained where the best overlap of
dry/breezy conditions are expected over southern NM into the TX
Trans-Pecos region. Elevated conditions will also be possible over
parts of northwest TX behind an eastward-advancing dryline, though
confidence in critical conditions is too low to introduce
probabilities. Over parts of the Northeast, a dry/breezy
post-frontal airmass could favor elevated conditions during the
afternoon, however, critical conditions are not expected at this
time and recent rainfall casts uncertainty on the overall
fire-weather threat.
...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...
A large-scale trough and strong westerly midlevel flow will move
east-southeastward across the western CONUS, while a lee surface low
deepens over the central High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. As the
strong/deep westerly flow overspreads a very warm/dry antecedent
airmass across the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains,
an expansive area of critical conditions should develop. 70 percent
Critical probabilities are in place where 20-30 mph sustained
westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 5-15
percent minimum RH atop critically dry fuels.
On Day 5/Friday, the large-scale trough will advance eastward across
the central CONUS, while strong midlevel flow persists over the
Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the same time,
the aforementioned lee surface low and attendant cold front will
move southward across the southern High Plains. West of the surface
low and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating amid the
deep/strong westerly flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH and
20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across parts of eastern
AZ into western NM. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been
added for these areas, and additional expansions may eventually be
needed.
...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
Very warm/dry conditions will persist across the Southwest, though
large spreads amongst the global model guidance casts uncertainty on
where breezy surface winds will overlap the dry boundary-layer
conditions. With that said, generally westerly midlevel flow should
favor lee troughing and breezy conditions over the southern/central
High Plains, though current indications are that the drier
conditions will be displaced to the west.
..Weinman.. 05/16/2022
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