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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281618

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of central/eastern
   WY where guidance has come into better agreement in the potential
   for sustained elevated wind/RH conditions this afternoon. RH values
   are already falling into the low 30s, and should fall to near 10-15%
   by this afternoon as winds increase to 15 mph. 

   ...Gulf Coast...
   Morning surface observations are sampling near-record low dewpoint
   values along the Gulf Coast and into AL. Winds have increased in
   response to the approach of Hurricane Ian to the southeast, with
   gusts up to 30 mph already being reported. Critical conditions
   remain likely for much of the Gulf Coast and will be most prevalent
   for south-central AL into the western FL Panhandle. 

   ...Southeast Oregon into Northwest Nevada...
   The KMAX and KRGX VWPs have shown an increase in low to mid-level
   winds over the past 2-3 hours as the upper wave moves ashore. Such
   winds will overspread the northern Sierra/southern Cascades by late
   afternoon, in line with the latest guidance. Elevated to locally
   critical conditions remain likely.

   ...Southern to Northern Plains...
   Dry conditions and receptive fuels remain prevalent across much of
   the Plains with RH reductions into the 20-30% expected by late
   afternoon for most locations. While winds will generally remain
   below 15 mph, a few locations may see periods of elevated fire
   weather conditions where winds can exceed 15 mph. This potential
   appears most likely across southern to central OK and through the
   southern Red River Valley of the north along the ND/MN border,
   though confidence in a more robust threat remains too limited for
   additional highlights.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   The broad upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the
   Plains, today. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will move
   into Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a stout surface high
   will move into the upper Midwest. A cold front will be draped across
   the northern Gulf into north Florida. Hurricane Ian will continue
   into central Florida.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   The combination of the strong surface high to the north and the
   strong pressure gradient around Hurricane Ian will drive moderately
   strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast. With these
   areas remaining dry, fuels are receptive to fire spread. RH below
   30% should occur over much of the region, particularly areas that
   are not impacted by high level outflow clouds from Ian. There is a
   corridor along/near the Gulf Coast that could see RH as low as 20%.
   This area is most likely to see critical fire weather as sustained
   winds near 15-20 mph with higher gusts probable.

   ...Southeast Oregon into northwest Nevada...
   The approach of the upper-level trough will promote a surface trough
   in the Columbia basin and drive moderate downslope winds of 15-20
   mph. RH of 15-20% is expected. Critical conditions are possible, but
   will be localized and brief.

   ...Central/northern Plains...
   As a lee trough develops in the Canadian Rockies, southerly winds
   may increase to 15-25 mph in parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska.
   Fuels have become marginally drier after recent rains. However, fire
   weather concerns are expected to be mitigated by cooler temperatures
   and upper-level cloud cover. The overlap of low RH and the stronger
   winds is not expected to be widespread. Locally elevated to near
   critical conditions are possible in central Wyoming. However, fuels
   are generally marginal and duration of these conditions will be
   short-lived.
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281841

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   The forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments
   needed across parts of the Gulf Coast based on latest hi-res
   ensemble guidance. Pockets of elevated conditions remain possible
   across much of the Plains within a broad southerly flow regime, but
   latest trends in guidance continue to suggest RH values will
   generally remain above 25% for most locations. See the previous
   discussion below for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level trough across the Northwest will continue eastward
   into the northern Rockies. A surface trough will develop in central
   Montana into the central High Plains in response to this feature.
   The upper Midwest surface high will shift into the Northeast. Along
   the Gulf Coast, the surface winds will again be enhanced by the
   surface high to the north and the strong surface pressure gradient
   associated with Hurricane Ian to the southeast.

   ...Alabama/Florida Panhandle/southwest Georgia...
   Lingering 15-20 mph winds are still possible Thursday afternoon. RH
   below 30% still appears probable with some values perhaps as low as
   20%. Cloud cover associated with Ian becomes more likely with
   eastward extent. Elevated fire weather will be most likely where
   skies remain clear.

   ...Central Plains...
   The surface pressure gradient will again favor enhanced southerly
   winds in parts of Kansas into South Dakota. Forecast soundings
   indicate greater potential for cloud cover than on Wednesday.
   Guidance is generally too moist for highlights and even the
   typically dry models depict only marginally reduced RH during the
   afternoon.


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282015

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

   Aside from regional fire weather concerns across parts of the Plains
   on D3/Friday, the fire weather potential will remain limited for
   much of the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues
   to depict a breakdown of the upper ridge over the central CONUS over
   the next several days. The shortwave trough moving into the Pacific
   Northwest will gradually decay as it meanders east, resulting in
   generally weak pressure gradient winds at the surface. Extended
   guidance also hints at predominantly dry conditions for much of the
   CONUS outside of the Pacific Northwest, the central to northern
   Rockies, and the East Coast, which may support additional curing of
   fuels over the next seven days.

   ...D3/Friday - Southern High Plains...
   South to southwesterly winds are expected to increase to 15-20 mph
   from west TX into the central Plains in response to a deepening
   surface low over the western Dakotas. Minimal moisture return into
   the southern Plains will support a dry return flow pattern with RH
   values falling into the 15-25% range from the OK/TX Panhandles into
   western KS. Fuels across this region remain receptive after several
   days of minimal rainfall, and should support fire weather concerns.
   Elevated conditions appear probable with brief periods of critical
   conditions possible as winds gust to 20-25 mph. Areas of elevated
   conditions may emerge over the weekend across the southern to
   central Plains, but poor agreement among ensemble members regarding
   the degree of diurnal mixing/RH reductions limits confidence in a
   more robust fire weather threat.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2022
      




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