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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271621

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

   Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA...LOS 
   ANGELES...AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...Northern Plains...
   Morning satellite and radar data shows greater than expected cloud
   cover and shower activity over much of the elevated area. While
   winds are strong in the cool and relatively dry post front airmass,
   light overnight precipitation will limit overall confidence in the
   potential for widespread elevated fire weather conditions. As a
   result, the elevated area has been trimmed considerably to the areas
   with the least observed precipitation. Several localized pockets of
   elevated fire weather potential will remain possible this afternoon
   where strong surface winds of 25-35 mph and 20-30% humidity can
   develop over drier fuels.  

   Elsewhere the risk areas remain valid with only minor adjustments
   from the latest forecast guidance. Please see the previous
   discussion for more details.

   ..Lyons.. 09/27/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Rockies/northern
   Plains through the day with a belt of moderate to strong mid-level
   flow along the periphery of this trough. At the surface, strong high
   pressure will build into the Northwest/northern Rockies with lee
   troughing in the Plains.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Strong northwesterly flow is expected to develop from eastern
   Montana into the Plains this afternoon due to a combination of deep
   mixing and a strengthening pressure gradient between the lee trough
   in the Plains and the strong high pressure in the northern Rockies.
   Winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected. Relative humidity is not
   expected to be overly dry (20 to 30 percent), but the strong winds
   should more than compensate for marginally dry surface conditions
   warranting an elevated delineation.

   ...Southwest...
   A lee cyclone is expected to develop and slide south in West Texas
   this afternoon. The pressure gradient between this low pressure
   center and high pressure in the northern Rockies will lead to gusty
   winds of 15 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 15 to 22 percent.
   Therefore, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected.

   ...Northern California...
   Early this morning, the gradient has started to strengthen in
   northern California with a 9 mb pressure gradient between MHS and
   RDD. This pressure gradient will continue to strengthen through the
   day today as high pressure continues to strengthen in the Northwest
   and northern Rockies. Therefore, gusty northerly winds are expected
   in the northern Sacramento Valley. Critical conditions are expected,
   especially on the western edge of the valley. Late tonight, critical
   conditions are expected to spread westward across the coastal
   Mountains as the pressure gradient becomes more offshore. Some
   guidance suggests critical conditions may reach nearly to the coast,
   and therefore, the critical delineation is now near the coast in
   some locations. Some downslope flow will develop along the Sierra
   foothills with some elevated to locally critical conditions
   expected.

   ...Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino County Mountains in
   southern California...
   A weak offshore gradient is expected to persist through much of the
   day today with some elevated conditions expected. Critical
   conditions are expected to begin late tonight as the LAX-DAG
   gradient increases to 4-5 mb by 12Z Monday.

   

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