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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290609

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid to upper-level trough is expected to traverse the
   Intermountain West and Great Basin throughout today. West to
   southwest surface winds around 15 to 20 mph will again develop
   across portions of western NM, and near the Four Corners region, as
   a lee surface trough slowly deepens during the afternoon. Low teens
   to single-digit RH are anticipated within a deeply mixed air mass,
   and will combine with these breezy conditions over increasingly
   receptive fuels within the Elevated area. This area was extended
   slightly northwestward to include portions of far
   southern/southeastern UT, and far northern/northeastern AZ where ERC
   percentiles are beginning to creep above 80.

   ..Barnes.. 05/29/2024
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290613

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Mid-level flow will continue to weaken across the Southwest
   Thursday, as a mid to upper-level negatively tilted trough
   progresses east northeastward over the northern Rockies. An
   associated Pacific cold front will make its way as far south as
   southwestern UT Thursday morning, and only weak westerly surface
   winds are expected ahead of it through the afternoon across most of
   AZ and NM. The exception may be near the Sacramento Mountains of NM,
   where sustained wind speeds near 15-20 mph are anticipated late in
   the afternoon/early evening. This is also where single-digit RH will
   reside. However, confidence is too low to introduce an Elevated area
   at this time since meteorological fire spread conditions will be
   brief and fairly isolated.

   ..Barnes.. 05/29/2024


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282051

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ... Large-scale fire-weather conditions look to be minimal over the
   next week ...

   A mid-level ridge across the Intermountain West early in the week
   will give way to a broadly zonal pattern by late week. No
   synoptic-scale troughs are expected to traverse through the flow,
   leaving little mid-to-upper-level support for increased surface
   winds across the Southwest. That said, smaller-scale perturbations
   in the zonal flow, particularly those moving along the northern
   periphery of the subtropical ridge, may result in locally
   elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions on any given day --
   especially given the single-digit relative humidity.

   By early next week (Days 7/8), numerical guidance suggests a
   larger-scale trough will move through the northern United States.
   The exact timing/evolution/path of this trough will determine if an
   increase in synoptic-scale surface winds across the Southwest will
   occur. Presently, numerical guidance continues to indicate
   widespread uncertainty in timing/strength/location of this
   developing trough. Early next week will bear watching in future
   updates as it pertains to potentially needing probabilities of
   critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024
      




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