ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281618

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 281700Z - 291200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of central/eastern
   WY where guidance has come into better agreement in the potential
   for sustained elevated wind/RH conditions this afternoon. RH values
   are already falling into the low 30s, and should fall to near 10-15%
   by this afternoon as winds increase to 15 mph. 

   ...Gulf Coast...
   Morning surface observations are sampling near-record low dewpoint
   values along the Gulf Coast and into AL. Winds have increased in
   response to the approach of Hurricane Ian to the southeast, with
   gusts up to 30 mph already being reported. Critical conditions
   remain likely for much of the Gulf Coast and will be most prevalent
   for south-central AL into the western FL Panhandle. 

   ...Southeast Oregon into Northwest Nevada...
   The KMAX and KRGX VWPs have shown an increase in low to mid-level
   winds over the past 2-3 hours as the upper wave moves ashore. Such
   winds will overspread the northern Sierra/southern Cascades by late
   afternoon, in line with the latest guidance. Elevated to locally
   critical conditions remain likely.

   ...Southern to Northern Plains...
   Dry conditions and receptive fuels remain prevalent across much of
   the Plains with RH reductions into the 20-30% expected by late
   afternoon for most locations. While winds will generally remain
   below 15 mph, a few locations may see periods of elevated fire
   weather conditions where winds can exceed 15 mph. This potential
   appears most likely across southern to central OK and through the
   southern Red River Valley of the north along the ND/MN border,
   though confidence in a more robust threat remains too limited for
   additional highlights.

   ..Moore.. 09/28/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   The broad upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the
   Plains, today. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will move
   into Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a stout surface high
   will move into the upper Midwest. A cold front will be draped across
   the northern Gulf into north Florida. Hurricane Ian will continue
   into central Florida.

   ...Central Gulf Coast...
   The combination of the strong surface high to the north and the
   strong pressure gradient around Hurricane Ian will drive moderately
   strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast. With these
   areas remaining dry, fuels are receptive to fire spread. RH below
   30% should occur over much of the region, particularly areas that
   are not impacted by high level outflow clouds from Ian. There is a
   corridor along/near the Gulf Coast that could see RH as low as 20%.
   This area is most likely to see critical fire weather as sustained
   winds near 15-20 mph with higher gusts probable.

   ...Southeast Oregon into northwest Nevada...
   The approach of the upper-level trough will promote a surface trough
   in the Columbia basin and drive moderate downslope winds of 15-20
   mph. RH of 15-20% is expected. Critical conditions are possible, but
   will be localized and brief.

   ...Central/northern Plains...
   As a lee trough develops in the Canadian Rockies, southerly winds
   may increase to 15-25 mph in parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska.
   Fuels have become marginally drier after recent rains. However, fire
   weather concerns are expected to be mitigated by cooler temperatures
   and upper-level cloud cover. The overlap of low RH and the stronger
   winds is not expected to be widespread. Locally elevated to near
   critical conditions are possible in central Wyoming. However, fuels
   are generally marginal and duration of these conditions will be
   short-lived.