ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191921

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   The previously drawn elevated area in place over northeastern CA,
   northwestern NV, and southern OR was removed. While RHs will still
   fall to near 10-15%, the latest forecast guidance has trended weaker
   with winds during the afternoon across the region on Day 2/Thursday.
   Outside of localized terrain-enhanced wind, widespread afternoon
   winds of 10-15 mph are expected to remain below elevated thresholds.
   Thus, only brief and localized elevated fire environment conditions
   are expected over much of the Intermountain West on Day 2/Thursday
   afternoon.

   ..Stearns.. 08/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper-level troughing will persist over the northeastern CONUS on
   Day 2/Thursday, with an embedded mid-level shortwave yielding
   increased precipitation chances over a drought-stressed environment
   in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The established upper ridge
   over the Great Basin will continue to amplify, delivering above
   normal temperatures and dry conditions to the Interior West.
   Meanwhile, an upper trough will deepen along the West Coast,
   ushering stronger southwesterly flow into the northwestern CONUS. 

   Across northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and southern
   Oregon, daytime high temperatures will range from 90-100 F or
   greater amid 10-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly winds and RH
   values of 10-15%. These meteorological conditions will overlap a
   receptive fuelscape, promoting an Elevated fire weather threat. RH
   values of 15-20% and 10-20 mph southwesterly winds will also overlap
   portions of southeastern Nevada; however, recent monsoonal moisture
   has contributed to less receptive fuels, precluding the expansion of
   Elevated highlights.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An established ridge over the Intermountain West will amplify and
   the pressure gradient will continue to tighten on Day 3/Friday as a
   trough approaches the west CONUS coast. A mid-level low pressure
   system will near the Pacific Northwest coast on Day 3/Friday as the
   upper-level jet max peaks over southern/central OR. This will
   provide widespread lift to portions of the Cascade Mountains and
   then much of central/eastern WA under the left exit region of the
   jet streak on the evening/night of Day 3/Friday. The trough will
   begin to lift northeastward as it becomes slightly negatively-tilted
   going into Day 4/Saturday. High pressure remains in place over much
   of the southwestern half of the CONUS with shortwave trough passages
   periodically moving across the crest of the high through the
   northern states. While slight differences in timing of the
   aforementioned trough remain, the overall pattern evolution remains
   similar amongst various ensemble forecast guidance. As we turn the
   corner toward next week, the ridge broadens and builds over the
   Intermountain West once again. Forecast certainty in any particular
   solution decreases thereafter given greater ensemble spread.

   ...Pacific Northwest/Northern California/Great Basin...
   The Pacific Northwest and immediately neighboring areas of northern
   California and the Great Basin will remain the foci through at least
   the first half of the extended forecast. Starting on Day 3/Friday
   and continuing through Day 4/Saturday, expect multiple consecutive
   days of gusty southwesterly winds combined with warm and dry weather
   as the aforementioned large trough approaches from the west.
   Increasing above-normal temperatures through Day 3/Friday will give
   way to cooler conditions as the trough approaches and moves onshore
   Day 4/Saturday. Given the jet aloft and surface conditions that
   would support deep daytime mixing, a favorable pattern remains in
   place for dry and breezy weather to overlap very dry fuels across
   northeastern CA, southern OR, and northwestern NV. 40% Critical
   probabilities were maintained on Day 3/Friday through Day 4/Saturday
   along with a widespread 10% probability of Dry Thunderstorms over
   much of the Pacific Northwest and the nearby northern Rockies.
   Additionally, where winds appear strongest (sustained at 20-25 mph
   from the southwest) over the tri-state CA, OR, NV area, 70% Critical
   probabilities were maintained on Day 4/Saturday. While a
   thunderstorm or two favoring the higher terrain of the Cascades (and
   pyro-aided convection amid initially hot, dry, and windy surface
   conditions) can't be ruled out on the afternoon of Day 3/Friday, the
   best convective potential will occur starting around 06Z on Saturday
   (Friday night) as the jet max approaches. This pattern of
   aforementioned upper-level support, limited but adequate
   (precipitable water values near 0.5-0.7") moisture, fast-moving
   (25-35 mph) storms, and dry fuels (ERCs near the 80-95th percentile)
   remains in place on Day 4/Saturday. With minimal precipitation
   expected from the previous day, an area of 10% Dry Thunderstorm risk
   was introduced over portions of the northern Pacific Northwest
   region and the nearby far western extent of the northern Rockies
   region.

   ...Southern Plains...
   On Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday, a cold front will move across the
   southern Plains, increasing fire weather risk in southwesterly flow
   ahead of the front as it progresses southeastward. Current ensemble
   forecast guidance suggests sustained 10-20 mph south to
   southwesterly winds will combine with afternoon RHs near 15-20%
   across the TX/OK Panhandles and surrounding areas with critically
   dry fuels.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Evolution of the post-frontal northwesterly winds over the northern
   High Plains remains a concern on Day 5/Sunday. Across much of the
   central MT, sustained northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph will occur.
   Some forecast guidance shows these strong and gusty winds extending
   even farther across eastern MT. This area will be watched closely
   with future outlook issuances.

   ..Stearns.. 08/19/2026