ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160635

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   The northwestern upper trough will move into the central Rockies on
   Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds will be roughly perpendicular to
   the terrain. In the Plains, a surface low will develop/deepen in the
   northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern
   High Plains.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Confidence in the degree of RH reduction is not overly high, but
   given the favorable downslope wind pattern, pockets of 15-25% are
   possible. With fuels continuing to dry in the region, they will be
   at least marginally receptive to fire spread. Winds are the more
   confident portion of the forecast. 15-20 mph can be expected for
   most areas, especially the eastern Plains of Colorado. Within
   terrain-favored areas, 20-25 mph is more probable along with even
   higher wind gusts. These stronger winds will promote elevated fire
   weather despite somewhat limited RH reduction and fuel
   receptiveness.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   RH of 10-20% can be expected within the region as temperatures
   should be warmer than farther north. Winds should still be
   relatively strong, particularly near the terrain. 15-20 mph will be
   most common with terrain gaps likely being higher. Elevated
   meteorological conditions could reach into parts of the Texas
   Panhandle/South Plains, but current fuel indices suggest limited
   risk for ignitions/spread at this time.

   ..Wendt.. 12/16/2025

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually increase through the
   work week and into the weekend across the south-central CONUS,
   though uncertainty remains high regarding which days/areas will see
   the greatest fire weather threat. Latest long-range guidance
   continues to trend towards an amplifying upper wave over the central
   U.S. Late Wednesday into Thursday with an attendant cyclone
   intensifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes region. A second,
   though lower amplitude, upper trough will progress across the
   country late Friday into Saturday, supporting a second surface low
   developing during the same period. These two systems will support
   rain/snow chances across much of the country with the exception of
   the Southwest and southern Plains where dry conditions will prevail.

   ...D3/Wednesday to D6/Saturday - Southern High Plains/Plains...
   The fuel landscape is expected to gradually improve through the work
   week as temperatures warm to the 75-90th percentiles of seasonal
   normal and promote steady drying of dead/dormant fine fuels. The
   intensification of a surface low over the northern High Plains on
   D3/Wed will promote strengthening southwesterly winds across the
   central to southern High Plains. Antecedent dry conditions coupled
   with increasing winds should promote areas of elevated fire weather
   conditions across northeast NM to southeast CO. 40% risk
   probabilities have been introduced where ensemble agreement shows
   the highest potential for a prolonged fire weather threat.

   A cold front is forecast to push into the central/southern Plains
   through D4/Thursday. Strong northwest winds are expected behind the
   front with some reduction in RH likely within the post-frontal air
   mass across southern KS into OK and northwest TX. While some
   guidance, notably recent runs of the GFS, show widespread elevated
   to critical fire weather conditions, other solutions are less
   bullish on the overlap of 20+ mph winds and sub-25% RH. Although the
   potential for critical conditions is noted, the disparity between
   deterministic solutions and weak ensemble signals limit confidence
   in this potential.  

   A rapid return to a southerly dry return flow regime is expected by
   D5/Friday across the southern Plains as a surface low intensifies
   over the Dakotas. A cold frontal passage is anticipated on
   D6/Saturday with dry/windy conditions possible within the
   pre-frontal air mass. 15-20 mph winds appear probable both days
   across eastern NM into northwest TX, OK and southern KS, through
   large spread regarding RH reductions within both regimes is noted.
   As with D4/Thursday, poor agreement in wind speed/RH reductions
   among deterministic guidance and weak ensemble signals suggest the
   predictability of the fire weather threats on either day remains
   limited at this range.

   ..Moore.. 12/15/2025