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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   A cut off low over the Southwest is expected to move eastward as it
   merges with a strengthening subtropical jet stream south of a second
   upper trough over the northern US and southern Canada. Enhanced
   westerly flow aloft will move out of the southern Rockies and over
   the Plains deepening a lee cyclone. This will promote dry and breezy
   conditions over parts of the southern Plains with elevated
   fire-weather conditions likely.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Beneath the southern stream upper low, a lee cyclone will deepen
   over the southern High Plains this afternoon. Trailing the low, a
   developing dryline will serve as the eastern terminus of dry
   westerly flow across parts of eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles.
   Warm temperatures with westerly winds of 15-25 mph and 15-20 percent
   RH will overlap a confined region of dry fuels across TX/OK. This
   should support several hours of elevated to locally critical
   fire-weather conditions. Some uncertainty remains on the exact
   dryline positioning later this afternoon. Isolated convection is
   also possible suggesting some precipitation may occur on the eastern
   edge of the Elevated probabilities.

   ...Northern Plains/Midwest...
   Gusty post-frontal winds are likely today across the northern Plains
   and upper Midwest. However, cooler surface temperatures and cloud
   cover will likely keep RH minimums above 35%. Still, some pockets of
   drier air could support brief localized fire-weather concerns in
   pockets of supportive fuels given stronger northwest wind gusts of
   20-30 mph.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Gusty southerly winds and a drier than normal air mass are likely to
   develop this afternoon over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Piedmont.
   A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the deepening upper low
   over southern Canada could support gusts of 10-15 mph. While RH will
   be below 40%, area fuels remains rather limited owing to recent
   precipitation. This should preclude broader fire-weather concerns,
   though some localized risk remains possible.

   ..Lyons.. 05/04/2026
      

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040637

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0137 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Flow aloft will increase over much of the southern US Tuesday as the
   southern stream upper low merges with the second trough over the
   northern and central US. As the upper-level troughs deepen, a
   surface low over OK will move southward ahead of a surging cold
   front over the Plains, while gusty winds are expected over parts of
   the eastern US.

   ...West TX...
   The cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Tuesday,
   pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into Central/West
   Texas. South of the front, westerly winds of 10-20 mph are expected
   along with RH below 25%. This could support some localized
   fire-weather concerns. However, recent plentiful rainfall has
   tempered marginal fuels such that widespread fire-weather conditions
   appear unlikely. Additional precipitation and cooler temperatures
   north of the front should limit fire-weather potential over the
   central US.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   As the upper trough over the central US consolidates, another day of
   gusty southerly winds is likely over parts of the Mid Atlantic. Warm
   daytime temperatures and minimal moisture ahead of a cold front
   could support localized fire-weather conditions over parts of the
   Carolinas and VA. However, fuels remain limited and any fire-weather
   conditions should be short lived, precluding highlights.

   ..Lyons.. 05/04/2026


U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032108

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0408 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   An upper low will transition to an open wave as it traverses the
   Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Concurrently, an upper trough will sag
   into the Midwest and Great Lakes region before merging with southern
   stream troughing over the Mid-South on Day 4/Wednesday. However,
   guidance has started to differ on the evolution of the upper wave
   over the Southwest, one solution depicting an upper low to break off
   and reside over northern Mexico through Day 6/Friday. Despite these
   differences, the overall pattern should continue to provide chances
   for precipitation across the central Plains and portions of the
   Eastern U.S. through mid-week, dampening broader fire weather
   concerns. An upper ridge is expected to build across the Pacific
   Northwest on Day 5/Wednesday, resulting in above normal temperatures
   and dry conditions to prevail for much of the western CONUS through
   the forecast period. 

   A deep upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and an
   approaching shortwave across the Mid-South should enhance dry
   southwesterly flow on Day 3/Tuesday for portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic, promoting widespread breezy conditions. However, an
   ongoing transition to green up and recent appreciable rainfall
   hinders a broader fire concern. 

   A cold front is expected to stall across the TX Panhandle Day
   3/Tuesday, pushing dry and breezy conditions farther south into
   Central/West Texas as southwesterly flow aloft amplifies. On Day
   4/Wednesday, the upper trough will migrate atop the southern Plains
   and West TX as an area of surface convergence develops east of the
   Front Range. This feature is expected to send a secondary cold front
   through the TX Panhandle on Day 4/Wednesday, while downslope
   westerly winds and a dry airmass persists over West TX. Recent
   plentiful rainfall and marginal fuels precludes the introduction of
   probabilities on both days.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/03/2026
      




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