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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 170636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


   A weak mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the Southwest today.
   This will lead to increasing mid-level flow across New Mexico and
   the southern High Plains. In addition, lee cyclogenesis is expected
   which will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the
   Southwest and southern High Plains. As a result, breezy conditions
   will develop amid 5 to 13 percent relative humidity. At this time,
   the strongest winds are forecast east of the dryline beneath a
   strengthening low-level jet. A dry environment with deep mixing is
   expected immediately east of the dryline which should allow some of
   this stronger flow to mix to the surface. 

   In addition, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in northern
   and northeastern Montana. While fuels remain mostly unreceptive
   across Montana, ERC values are nearing or exceeding the 90th
   percentile in portions of north-central Montana. Therefore, a small
   elevated delineation has been added across this area for this small
   region of more favorable fuels.

   Thunderstorms are expected to form in the vicinity of a dryline
   across west Texas into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this afternoon.
   These storms will develop in an airmass with PWAT around 0.6 to 0.75
   inches. Therefore, these storms should be drier, especially
   initially, with the threat for lightning induced fire starts.

   ..Bentley.. 05/17/2022

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 170636

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


   Weak high pressure will build into the Southwest on Wednesday with
   weak flow aloft. This should keep wind concerns mostly muted across
   the region. Dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions
   of southern and southeast Wyoming, but fuels are not that dry in
   this region. 

   Some dry thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
   Colorado and northeast New Mexico on Wednesday. Most CAM guidance
   shows isolated to scattered storms developing on the higher terrain
   before moving eastward in an environment with PWAT around 0.6
   inches. Therefore, these storms should be dry and may result in new
   fire starts.

   ..Bentley.. 05/17/2022

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 162158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   Fire-weather concerns will generally be focused over the Southwest
   into the southern/central High Plains during the extended forecast
   period. Currently, confidence in the development of Critical
   conditions is highest on Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday over these areas. 

   ...Day 3/Wednesday...
   A southern-stream midlevel trough and modest midlevel westerly flow
   will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, where
   widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop by the afternoon. While
   elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible over the
   region, the lack of a tighter surface pressure gradient limits
   confidence in the development of critical conditions. 40 percent
   probabilities have been maintained where the best overlap of
   dry/breezy conditions are expected over southern NM into the TX
   Trans-Pecos region. Elevated conditions will also be possible over
   parts of northwest TX behind an eastward-advancing dryline, though
   confidence in critical conditions is too low to introduce
   probabilities. Over parts of the Northeast, a dry/breezy
   post-frontal airmass could favor elevated conditions during the
   afternoon, however, critical conditions are not expected at this
   time and recent rainfall casts uncertainty on the overall
   fire-weather threat.

   ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...
   A large-scale trough and strong westerly midlevel flow will move
   east-southeastward across the western CONUS, while a lee surface low
   deepens over the central High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. As the
   strong/deep westerly flow overspreads a very warm/dry antecedent
   airmass across the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains,
   an expansive area of critical conditions should develop. 70 percent
   Critical probabilities are in place where 20-30 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 5-15
   percent minimum RH atop critically dry fuels.

   On Day 5/Friday, the large-scale trough will advance eastward across
   the central CONUS, while strong midlevel flow persists over the
   Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the same time,
   the aforementioned lee surface low and attendant cold front will
   move southward across the southern High Plains. West of the surface
   low and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating amid the
   deep/strong westerly flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH and
   20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across parts of eastern
   AZ into western NM. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been
   added for these areas, and additional expansions may eventually be

   ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
   Very warm/dry conditions will persist across the Southwest, though
   large spreads amongst the global model guidance casts uncertainty on
   where breezy surface winds will overlap the dry boundary-layer
   conditions. With that said, generally westerly midlevel flow should
   favor lee troughing and breezy conditions over the southern/central
   High Plains, though current indications are that the drier
   conditions will be displaced to the west.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

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