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7 Day Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation

latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation



12 Month Animation SST El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO)

Animation of the Latest SST in the El Niño Southern Oscilation


EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
9 November 2023
 

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

 

Synopsis:  El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024).

Above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] were indicative of a strong El Niño, with anomalies increasing in the central and east-central Pacific in the past month. The latest weekly Niño index values were +1.4°C in Niño-4, +1.8°C in Niño-3.4, +2.1°C in Niño-3, and +2.2°C in Niño-1+2 [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies increased slightly [Fig. 3] associated with the initiation of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which strengthened above-average subsurface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly in the western and central Pacific. Convection/rainfall was enhanced around the International Date Line, extending into the eastern Pacific. Suppressed convection/rainfall strengthened around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the station-based SOI remained negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a growing El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024 [Fig. 6]. Based on latest forecasts, there is a greater than 55% chance of at least a "strong" El Niño (≥ 1.5°C in Niño-3.4 for a seasonal average) persisting through January-March 2024. There is a 35% chance of this event becoming "historically strong" (≥ 2.0°C) for the November-January season. Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with a 62% chance during April-June 2024; [Fig. 7]).






Typical La Nina Weather Pattern

La Nina Winter Time Pattern Image



Typical El Nino Weather Pattern

El Nino Winter Time Pattern Image



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