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County Warning Area [CWA]: STO Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA 000 FXUS66 KSTO 182108 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 208 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .Synopsis... Warm and dry weather through most of this week. Widespread rain and high-elevation snow along with cooler weather returns by the end of the week. && .Discussion... Mostly clear skies this afternoon, with a ridge of high pressure dominating the pattern aloft. Besides some towering cumulus along the south-central Sierra and some thin high clouds through this afternoon, expect mostly clear skies. Winds will remain mostly light as well through tomorrow. Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through at least Wednesday this week as the strong blocking ridge over the PacNW and NorCal gradually weakens throughout the week. In addition to bringing warm weather, the high will likely suppress deep convection over NorCal. Highs will continue to be around 5-15 degrees above average on Tuesday. The ridge is forecast to weaken beginning mid-week allowing a return of temperatures closer to average the second half of the week. A few late-day showers may be possible over the northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday, but more widespread precipitation chances will likely hold off until the end of the week. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... An upper level trough pattern takes shape late week into the weekend, bringing widespread precipitation chances Friday through Sunday. WPC guidance indicates 0.40-1.5" of precipitation in the Valley, with 1-3.5" inches over the foothills and mountains Friday through early Monday morning. The heaviest precipitation is expected late Friday. Snow levels begin around 6000-7000 feet Friday, lowering to 3500 to 4500 feet over the weekend. NBM shows a 50-70% probability of at least 12 inches of snow over the Sierra above 6000 feet. Snow accumulations of 1-2 feet are possible above 6000 feet, with 3-10 inches down to around 5000 feet. Latest NBM advertises a 10-25% probability of thunderstorm development in the Valley and foothills on Saturday. Lingering mountain showers are possible through Monday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with light, variable winds mainly below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
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