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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: STO
Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA

137
FXUS66 KSTO 172117
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
117 PM PST Mon Feb 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy morning fog development possible again into Tuesday
morning, with light precipitation still expected on Wednesday. A
trend toward above normal temperatures and dry weather is then
anticipated late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest GOES-West satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies
across interior NorCal as the region remains loosely influenced by
broad troughing aloft. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are
generally expected to prevail the remainder of the day, gradually
clearing into Tuesday morning as ridging aloft begins to build in.
As the ridge does build in, a period of breezy northerly winds is
expected on Tuesday, with some gusts to 15 mph possible at times.
The timing of decreasing cloud cover and increasing winds will
have a strong bearing on potential for Valley/adjacent foothills
fog development into Tuesday morning. Still, some 40 to 70 percent
HREF probabilities of dense fog development exist from Marysville
southward, although the eastern Valley and adjacent foothills are
the currently favored locations for this.

After the potentially soupy start to Tuesday, partly to mostly
sunny skies in conjunction with additional warming from the
northerly breeze, near to slightly above normal high temperatures
are expected by the afternoon. Readings in the low to mid 60s are
anticipated across the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with even 40s
to mid 50s at higher elevations. This brief dry and warm period
then looks to become abruptly interrupted by a transient shortwave
trough moving into Wednesday. Ahead of this system, breezy
southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph are expected, before shifting
to a northerly direction late Wednesday into Thursday.

Additionally, some precipitation impacts look to accompany this
midweek system. The quick moving nature of the trough will limit
overall precipitation totals, but the comparatively further
southward trajectory is expected to yield more widespread
precipitation potential. All in all, precipitation totals of 0.25
to 0.5 inches are expected from the Interstate 80 corridor
northward, with a trace to a few hundredths possible further
southward in any isolated showers that are able to sustain
themselves further. With fairly persistent snow levels around 5000
to 6000 feet, most accumulating snowfall is expected above 5500
feet, with appreciable accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible
above 6000 feet. While snowfall accumulations are expected to
remain light, current guidance indicates much of the snowfall
occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours, which may
result in some mountain travel impacts during the Wednesday
evening commute.

While some ensemble discrepancies exist regarding the shortwave
ejection into Thursday, ridging aloft is expected to build in
behind it. Main differences between ensembles at this time pertain
to the magnitude of northerly wind gusts on Thursday, with some
members indicating gusts . Otherwise, dry and warming weather
begins to take hold as ridging builds in, with similarly near to
slightly above normal high temperatures as Tuesday expected by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
Ensemble guidance remains largely in agreement on ridging aloft
amplifying through the end of the week and into the weekend. This
will usher in a more pronounced period of persistent warm and
overall dry weather into next weekend. As a result, above normal
temperatures are favored across the extended forecast period.
Generally 20 to 40 percent probabilities of reaching 70F
throughout the Delta, Valley, and foothills expand to 40 to 70
percent probabilities for Sunday and next Monday. While no strong
signals for wind impacts are anticipated with this pattern shift,
some breezy north to east winds driven by diurnal trends would
generally be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the late afternoon with light north to
west winds less than 12 kts developing after 03z Tuesday. Areas of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions return after 06z Tuesday due to fog and
low stratus in the Central Valley. Westerly gusts up to 15-20 kts
along the Sierra Crest through Tuesday morning.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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