308
FXUS66 KSTO 082238
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
238 PM PST Sun Feb 8 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Light precipitation today into tonight with rain and light
    mountain snow showers, highest over the mountains and N.
    Sacramento Valley

  - A stronger system will bring widespread precipitation across
    the area, with snowfall bringing moderate travel impacts over
    the northern Sierra and southern Cascades late Monday through
    Wednesday

  - A likely wetter and colder system arrives Friday through next
    weekend, bringing significant travel impacts for the holiday
    weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...There was a very brief period of morning fog around
daybreak in the Sacramento metro area and the northern San
Joaquin Valley, as well as the Delta. A weak shortwave is brushing
through the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent northern
mountains today, bringing light scattered showers in that area. A
light dusting of snow is possible over the higher mountains
(7000-8000 feet) tonight. Temperatures this afternoon are again
quite mild, with Valley, Delta and foothill highs in the mid to
upper 60s, and even some lower 70s in a few spots.

...Monday through Wednesday...As the shortwave exits overnight
into early morning Monday, some breezy northerly winds will
develop, with gusts to around 20-25 mph in the Central Valley by
afternoon. The northerly winds should limit widespread fog
development, though more winds sheltered areas on the eastern side
of the Valley could see some patchy dense fog. The best potential
for this is over the eastern portion of the northern San Joaquin
Valley. Most areas will be dry Monday, with mostly cloudy skies,
cooler, more seasonable temperatures. The next system approaches
from the eastern Pacific Monday afternoon, with some rain and
snow showers developing ahead over the Sierra.

This stronger, more significant trough passes through on Tuesday
into early Thursday, bringing widespread rain showers,
moderate mountain snow, breezy winds and cooler temperatures
Sunday through the middle of next week. This system has trended
slower, with the heaviest snow now a little later, expected
Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday. A Winter Weather
Advisory continues to be in effect from 10 pm Monday through 4 pm
Wednesday for the northern Sierra and the southern Cascades and
Lassen Park above 5000 feet. Snow levels start around 5000 to 6000
feet early Tuesday, dropping to around 4500 feet Wednesday.
Snowfall totals have increased, with 4 to 10 inches above 5000
feet, 10 to 18 inches above 6000 feet, and up to 2 feet possible
over higher peaks. Expect delays and chain controls on mountain
freeways such as I-80 and US Highway 50. Rainfall amounts in the
Valley have recently trended higher are expected to be generally
around a half inch to an inch, though they could be locally
higher in thunderstorms. This should limit impacts from rainfall
to be mainly slippery travel on roads. The latest probability of
thunderstorms has increased to 1520 % for Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday, centered over the southern Sacramento Valley,
the northern San Joaquin Valley and into the foothills.

...Friday and onward...

A potentially wetter and colder system arrives Friday through
next weekend, which could bring heavy snow. The colder air means
lower snow levels, possibly into the upper foothills. With
increased travel due to the Presidents Day holiday, next weekend
could see significant travel impacts. There remains uncertainty
about this storm, especially the timing, which has recently trended
a little later more into early the next week. Stay tuned as more
details become available!

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook favors below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the
February 15th through 21st timeframe, leaning towards the active
weather pattern continuing through the 3rd week of February.

[Monday-Wednesday 4PM] Sierra Chances for 4" of Snow or More:
90-100% [Monday-Wednesday 4PM]

Sierra Chances for 8" of Snow orMore:85-95%
[Monday-Wednesday 4PM]

Sierra Chances for 12" of Snow or More:50-80%

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions continue the rest of today into tonight.
Light rain showers are possible over the northern Sacramento
Valley through 06Z this evening as a weak weather system passes
through. Increasing northerly winds from the departing weather
system should limit dense fog development in the early morning
hours, though some areas of MVFR conditions in BR are expected
tonight across the southern Sacramento Valley into the northern
San Joaquin Valley from mist through 18z Monday. The northern San
Joaquin Valley could briefly see conditions worsen to IFR to LIFR
conditions around 15-18z Monday. Breezy north winds are possible
after 18z Monday, gusting up to around 15-20 kts over the western
side of the Sacramento Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$