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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: STO
Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 141157
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
357 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather this morning with areas of valley fog. Light rain
spreading over the north state today and tonight with breezy
south winds and light snow over the mountains. A moderate storm
system moves through NorCal late Sunday into Monday with mountain
travel impacts likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough off the coast with southerly flow aloft pulling high
cloud cover over nearly all of the CWA this morning. Even with
this cloud cover, valley fog has formed from about Oroville
southward but so far nothing too dense. May get a few light
sprinkles during the morning hours from the subtropical cloud
cover but should not see anything significant. Increasing gradients
ahead of the through will bring breezy south winds especially
over the highest terrain and a wind advisory remains in place
above the 7000 foot level late this morning through the evening.
Pacific frontal band associated with the offshore trough is
forecast to reach the north coast by mid day today then push
inland this afternoon and overnight. Precipitation with this weak
system is still expected to be fairly light with only light snow
expected at the highest elevations. Therefore, travel impacts over
the Sierra are expected to be minimal. GFS and ECMWF have been
consistent in bringing a secondary shortwave trough across norcal
on Saturday which may be strong enough to ring a few light
showers out during the day but again precipitation amounts should
remain quite light.

Next and stronger Pacific trough is forecast to approach the
coast on Sunday. Pre-frontal moisture is again expected to bring
light precipitation to the forecast area during the day but
precipitation should remain fairly light during the daytime hours.
South winds will pick up again during the day Sunday but are
currently not expected to be quite as strong as expected today.
Main cold front is expected to push into the coast range late
Sunday afternoon and then across Norcal during the night. This
moister system will bring moderate precipitation to the forecast
area. Snow levels with this system will be too high to have a
significant travel impact on the coast range but low enough to
impact the Sierra Cascade passes. GFS and ECMWF a bit more
consistent with each other on latest runs bringing a slight split
to the frontal band as is moves eastward across the state. Latest
snow amount forecast puts snowfall totals from early Monday
through early Tuesday at several inches to a little over a foot or
borderline between heavy snow warning and advisory criteria. Will
put out a statement regarding mountain travel impacts but some
winter hazard product will likely be needed once snow total
estimates can be better fine tuned with successive model runs.
Frontal band moves quickly east of the forecast area by Monday
afternoon with a transition to light showers during the day. Upper
ridge begins rebuilding Monday night pushing any precipitation
threat to the far northern forecast area.
&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)



Little change to the extended forecast this morning as models
continue to depict uncertainty for the rest of the week. The
ECMWF continues to be the more bullish of the two models and tries
to push another frontal system into northwest California on
Tuesday. If this solution were to pan out it would clip our most
northern counties; however, the GFS supports ridging over the
area. If the GFS pans out, we`d like see drier and warmer weather
with the potential for some valley fog. The forecast right now is
a blend of the two models for the middle of the week. As we head
towards the weekend, the models continue to struggle to come into
agreement. Both suggest that a low develops over the Pacific;
however, they vastly differ on timing and strength.
&&

.AVIATION...


The forecast seems to be on track this morning as there are
pockets of MVFR and locally IFR visibilities for areas south of
KSAC. A frontal system will move into the region this morning
which will bring increasing winds. Precipitation will begin to
move into Northern California after 18Z this morning which will
reduce both ceilings and visibilities.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather




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