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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: STO
Regional NWS Weather Office: Sacramento, CA

000
FXUS66 KSTO 171028
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
328 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A heating trend is expected early this week, peaking on Tuesday,
followed by less hot weather. Isolated mountain thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough which has brought afternoon mountain
thunderstorms in recent days shifts south and east of the area
later today. This should limit the bulk of the thunderstorm
activity this afternoon and evening to the northern Sierra south
of I80, though a slight potential continues over the Lassen
National Park. Easterly flow may move some showers and isolated
thunderstorms towards the upper elevations of the Motherlode and
locally down to near Sonora late in the afternoon and early
evening. Eastern Pacific ridging will then extend over the area,
bringing dry weather and increasing temperatures across the area
on Tuesday.

High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be 5 to 8
degrees warmer than yesterday. The Delta breeze continues to blow
but is expected to be a little weaker today. Breezy northerly
winds over the northern Sacramento Valley will develop with the
upper level ridge building to the north, with gusts up to 20 to
25 mph this afternoon on the west side. This will lower minimum
humidity levels into the teens in that area. The northerly winds
continue on Tuesday with additional drying, which will bring some
increased local fire weather concerns in the afternoon and early
evening.

Temperatures are expected to peak on Tuesday, with a trough
then approaching the Pacific Northwest. This will flatten the
ridge on Wednesday and then extend into Norcal on Thursday. Valley
temperatures on Tuesday will reach the upper 90s over the
northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Sacramento Valley with a
weakened Delta breeze. Higher temperatures are forecast over the
northern Sacramento Valley with northerly flow keeping morning
temperatures in the 70s and afternoon highs peaking around 105.
This could bring some heat impacts, especially to sensitive
groups. The record for the 18th (Tuesday) at the Redding Airport
is 110, set in 2017. This was followed by daily records of 113 on
the 19th, 111 on the 20th, 110 on the 21st and 109 on the 22nd,
all set in 2017. So this will be a minor heat event in
comparison.

The Delta breeze strengthens again Tuesday into early
Wednesday, bringing some rapid relief to influenced area. Some
heat persists longer over the northern Sacramento Valley, with the
Redding high on Wednesday projected at 103. More widespread
cooling arrives Thursday, with Valley highs in the more seasonable
upper 80s to upper 90s. This means the heat event will be
a relatively short one. EK

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)



Current ensemble guidance is in better agreement than yesterday on
the pattern for the extended period. Both the GEFS and European
ensemble show a low pressure system digging into the intermountain
west Friday and Saturday. This will allow temperatures to remain
near normal through the extended period, with Valley highs in the
90s and mountain highs in the 60s to 80s. However, this pattern
will bring gusty north winds to the Sacramento valley Friday.
Minimum relative humidities will remain in the teens and 20s for
the Valley. Although nighttime RH recoveries remain decent, the
gusty winds along with dry daytime RH could lead to increased fire
weather concerns on Friday. HEC
&&

.AVIATION...



VFR conditions expected for interior northern California for the
next 24 hours. Isolated mountain showers and thunderstorms
possible Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather




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