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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 2 20:02:02 UTC 2021.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 2 20:02:02 UTC 2021.SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible today through tonight across parts of the
central/northeastern Gulf Coastal Plain eastward to coastal Georgia,
southern South Carolina and northern Florida.

...Southeast...
A compact upper low continues to track eastward across OK/AR, with
large-scale lift affecting much of the southeast states today.  This
is resulting in a region of showers and isolated thunderstorms from
southeast LA into MS/AL/GA/FL.  This activity will persist through
the afternoon/tonight while moving slowly eastward.

Models are in agreement that a deepening surface low will track
across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with the associated warm
front just off or barely on shore over the FL panhandle this
evening.  This may result in a few strong storms in the coastal
waters or perhaps slightly inland.  However, most CAM solutions
suggest the risk of a surface-based storm moving ashore is rather
low, so will maintain the ongoing forecast of less-than 5% coverage
of severe.  If a surface-based storm could affect the Big Bend area
of FL, it would pose a risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado.

..Hart.. 03/02/2021

  SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across parts of the
central/northeastern Gulf Coastal Plain eastward to coastal Georgia,
southern South Carolina and northern Florida.

...Discussion...
Minimal changes were made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for
parts of the Southeast.

..Smith.. 03/02/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021/

...Southeast...
A compact upper low continues to track eastward across OK/AR, with
large-scale lift affecting much of the southeast states today.  This
is resulting in a region of showers and isolated thunderstorms from
southeast LA into MS/AL/GA/FL.  This activity will persist through
the afternoon/tonight while moving slowly eastward.

Models are in agreement that a deepening surface low will track
across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with the associated warm
front just off or barely on shore over the FL panhandle this
evening.  This may result in a few strong storms in the coastal
waters or perhaps slightly inland.  However, most CAM solutions
suggest the risk of a surface-based storm moving ashore is rather
low, so will maintain the ongoing forecast of less-than 5% coverage
of severe.  If a surface-based storm could affect the Big Bend area
of FL, it would pose a risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado.

  SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low located to the west of southern CA/Baja Wednesday
morning will move east and reach southern UT/northern AZ by daybreak
Thursday.  Showers and a few weak thunderstorms are forecast over
the eastern Pacific in association with the mid-level cold pocket. 
This area of activity will probably move ashore coastal southern CA
during the late morning through mid afternoon as strong large-scale
ascent and modestly steep lapse rates overspread southern coastal
CA.  
Farther east, a weakening mid-level shortwave trough will depart the
Carolina coast during the morning.  A rain shield is forecast for
coastal SC during the morning within a zone of strong low-level warm
air advection well north of a surface frontal zone.  Near and south
of the front, weak instability may enable a low chance for a couple
of thunderstorms over the central portion of the FL Peninsula
primarily during the morning hours before weakening
convergence/upper support diminish by the early afternoon.

..Smith.. 03/02/2021

 






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