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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 22 09:57:02 UTC 2024.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 22 09:57:02 UTC 2024.SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday from parts
of the Texas Caprock eastward across northwest Texas and far
southwest Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge will build into the Rockies on Tuesday, as
mid-level flow remains from the west-northwest across the southern
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across
western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. South of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 50s F across
northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop, with MLCAPE
expected to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings
on Tuesday in the afternoon have a capping inversion in place.
However, increasing low-level convergence along the front may be
enough for isolated convective initiation. Any storms that form
would be high-based, and in an environment with moderate deep-layer
shear and steep lapse rates. This could support a potential for
isolated supercells with large hail. A strong wind gust or two would
also be possible. The capping inversion should keep any severe
threat in a relatively narrow window, from late afternoon into the
early evening.

..Broyles.. 04/22/2024

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Isolated thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for strong
wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of
the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the High
Plains on Wednesday, as flow at mid-levels remains
west-northwesterly across the southern Plains. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place across much of Texas into Oklahoma,
with a warm front located from west Texas Panhandle eastward into
central Oklahoma. South of the front, surface dewpoints will be in
the 60s F. A north-to-south corridor of moderate instability is
expected to develop across west Texas during the day, with weaker
instability extending eastward across much of Texas and Oklahoma.
Forecast soundings near the instability axis in west Texas during
the late afternoon suggest that a capping inversion will be in
place. The cap could weaken enough in areas that heat up the most,
to allow for isolated convective development. Forecast soundings
near Midland and Lubbock by 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking near
2000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear at 40 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates.
If a cell can overcome the cap, then isolated supercell development
would be possible, with a threat for hail and strong wind gusts.
This threat is highly conditional. 

Further northeast along the warm front in central Oklahoma, some
model solutions suggest that elevated storms will develop during the
afternoon or evening. Forecast sounding in central Oklahoma have
MUCAPE near 1500 J/kg, with effective shear around 50 knots. This
could be enough for a marginal hail threat.

..Broyles.. 04/22/2024

  Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward away from the
Great Plains on Thursday, as an upper-level trough moves through the
Desert Southwest. Mid-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly
over the southern and central Plains on Thursday, as a dryline sets
up during the day. East of the dryline, moderate instability appears
likely by afternoon from parts of west Texas northward into western
Oklahoma and central Kansas. Isolated thunderstorm development will
be possible in some areas to the east of the dryline. Moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the southern and central
Plains, suggesting a few supercells with large hail and wind damage
may occur. An isolated tornado threat could also develop.

On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great
Plains, with a mid-level jet moving over a moist and unstable
airmass. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon from north-central/northeast Texas northward into the
lower to mid Missouri Valley. The trough is forecast to be
negatively tilted, and be associated with strong large-scale ascent
and moderate deep-layer shear. This will likely support scattered
strong to severe storms, with the greatest severe threat across
northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be
possible during the afternoon and evening.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the
southern and central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, moisture
advection is expected to replenish a moist airmass in the southern 
and central Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from parts of north Texas
northward into Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Moderate deep-layer
shear over an unstable airmass should support scattered strong to
severe storms. MCS development could occur across parts of the warm
sector Saturday evening.

From Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move
from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A severe threat
could develop Sunday afternoon ahead of the system along and near a
moist axis from the Ark-La-Tex north-northeastward into the Ozarks.
The severe threat, associated with the trough, would be further east
on Monday. At this time, there is considerable spread among model
solutions, concerning the timing of the trough on Sunday and Monday.
A slower solution, which some models suggest could happen, would
result in a large spatial displacement from current model forecasts.
For this reason, predictability remains too low to add a severe
threat area on either day.


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