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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 10 03:15:01 UTC 2020.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 10 03:15:01 UTC 2020.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms will persist this evening over parts
the Midwest, Great Lakes and the central High Plain. Other strong to
severe storms are possible later tonight across parts of Kansas and
OK. Isolated large hail and damaging wind are the primary threats.

...Midwest and Great Lakes region...

Line of multicell storms will continue to pose some threat for
isolated strong to damaging wind through mid evening as they move
through remaining corridor of moderate instability. Activity should
begin to weaken by 03Z as the boundary layer stabilizes.

...Central High Plains...

Storms will continue moving off the higher terrain and into the High
Plains within a low-level upslope regime and an environment
characterized by moderate instability and supercell wind profiles.
Isolated damaging wind and large hail remain possible this evening,
but activity should begin to diminish after 03Z as convective
inhibition increases.

...Kansas and Oklahoma...

An outflow boundary has advanced through much of OK and now extends
from the northwest part of the state southeastward through
southeastern OK. Towering cumulus has been observed on visible
imagery, but capping evident on the 00Z Norman RAOB suggests it may
be difficult to initiate storms along this boundary given presence
of only modest and shallow convergence and the onset of nocturnal
cooling. Storms will most likely develop later this evening or
tonight as the low-level jet increases and augments isentropic
ascent north of the boundary across KS into northern OK. Moderate
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates will support some threat
for isolated large hail, and a few locally strong to damaging gusts
will also be possible.

Otherwise, small cluster of storms moving into northwest TX will
pose a risk for downburst winds and hail through about 02Z before
weakening as the surface layer stabilizes and convective inhibition
increases.

..Dial.. 07/10/2020

 






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