Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.

...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
central Florida Peninsula through early evening.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.

...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a
stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower
Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the
surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of
the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into
central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible
convective development.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the
forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the
low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding
observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as
central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight
Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply
does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that
moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a
tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures
aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F
dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave
trough may promote isolated storm development by late
afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase
effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to
near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively
quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026