Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona
into southwest New Mexico.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across
the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front
advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A
north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead
of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of
the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will
result in scattered to widespread convective development this
afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take
place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional
more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley.
By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected
to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians.

Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee
northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level
speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing
to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated
tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The
tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms
form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is
expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can
become organized, with this potential persisting into the early
evening.

...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New
Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid
60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to
develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher
terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and
moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New
Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during
the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will
likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today
across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to
mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up
this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability
could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds are possible from the
upper Ohio Valley into the Carolinas and parts of Georgia Sunday
afternoon and evening. A more conditional severe risk exists across
parts of North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota late Sunday
night.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level low initially over the lower OH Valley Sunday morning is
forecast to evolve into an open wave while slowly moving through the
OH and TN Valleys. That feature will be loosely linked to a
strengthening mid-level trough over eastern ON into QC. Elsewhere,
an intense upper low will move from AB into SK with an attending
belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb spreading from the northern Rockies
into the northern High Plains. 

At the surface, an area of low pressure will move through the OH
Valley with a trailing wind shift/weak front moving across the TN
Valley and Gulf Coast states. There is also a signal for a diffuse
warm front to lift north through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England. Farther northwest, a cold front will advance into the
northern Plains.  


...Upper Ohio Valley into the Southeast...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning
from the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians within the
warm-conveyor air stream preceding the OH Valley low. The presence
of a moist and at least modestly unstable environment with little to
no capping will allow showers and storms to persist through the day
in some areas. Where cloud breaks can occur, increased daytime
heating will support corridors of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. 
 
More intense storms appear possible during the afternoon within the
areas of greater instability, from near and east of the surface low
in the upper OH Valley south along and ahead of the front into GA.
The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast near the
surface low, where some storm organization appears possible, given
sufficient destabilization. Another area of potential interest is
along the diffuse warm front, which is forecast to lift through the
southern Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon into evening. While
deep-layer shear will be somewhat limited, locally backed surface
winds combined with a broadening and strengthening low-level jet may
enhance low-level shear in the vicinity of the boundary. 

Locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard with the
most intense storms during the afternoon into evening. However, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the warm front. The
probability of that occurrence currently appears to be less than 2%.
 

...Northern Plains...

While boundary-layer moisture content will remain somewhat limited,
the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates is expected to yield
an axis of moderate instability ahead the front with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Despite pre-frontal temperatures warming into the
90s to around 100, afternoon storm development remains uncertain due
to capping at the base of an EML and the absence of forcing for
ascent. Some of the 00Z models indicate a greater possibility of
isolated storm development (mainly elevated) late Sunday night as
the cap is gradually eroded by increasing height falls aloft.
Strengthening vertical shear combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates and MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg suggests a conditional risk for
severe storms capable of large hail and perhaps locally damaging
wind gusts. The level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained due to
uncertainties in storm development and potential coverage.

..Mead.. 08/01/2026