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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 22 00:59:01 UTC 2018.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 22 00:59:01 UTC 2018.SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms may impact portions of north-central and
southeastern Arizona this afternoon, accompanied by some risk for
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts.

...01Z Outlook Update...
The ongoing Marginal risk area has been confined to a small part of
Pima/Cochise Counties and vicinity in Arizona.  Ongoing storms and
extensive overturning have lessened the severe threat here, though
steep mid-level lapse rates may result in a lingering hail threat
for the next couple of hours, though continued overturning and
nocturnal cooling should result in a limited threat headed into the
overnight.

A separated Marginal risk area has been added in areas of northern
Arizona north of Flagstaff.  Steep mid-level lapse rates and
favorable shear profiles have resulted in marginal supercell
structures this afternoon producing hail and perhaps a wind gust or
two.  This threat should persist over the next couple of hours, but
wane thereafter due to nocturnal cooling and attendant low-level
stabilization.

..Cook.. 10/22/2018

 




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