Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.

...Northern/Central Florida...
A closed low-latitude upper low will continue to spread eastward
from east TX toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and broader Gulf
Coast region through tonight. Multiple extensive
northeast/southwest-oriented bands of convection are ongoing this
morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of an
eastward-moving cold front. A warm/moist conveyor ahead of the front
will maintain persistent scattered thunderstorms while a gradual
moistening of the boundary layer occurs. 

Prevalent ongoing convection over much of northern FL should
effectively limit the northward extent of appreciable
destabilization, and thus, the potential for surface-based severe
storms. This suggests that west-central/north-central portions of
the FL Peninsula should have the most probable severe risk today,
which could continue into this evening. Deep-layer shear will
increase to around 35-45 kt across this region by the afternoon,
which will support continued organization of inland-spreading
convection into the western/north-central FL Peninsula. Isolated
strong to damaging winds will likely be the primary threat given the
linear storm mode. A tornado could also occur with circulations
embedded within the line as strong flow in the 0-3 km layer supports
enlarged low-level hodographs.

...Coastal Georgia to Eastern Carolinas...
Strengthening southerly low-level winds by this evening will
transport greater low-level moisture over the coastal Carolinas,
where the potential for near-surface-based thunderstorms may
increase along the immediate coast as surface dewpoints reach the
mid to perhaps upper 60s. Some threat for isolated strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a tornado may exist tonight into early Saturday
morning near the coast associated with the low-level jet and
increased low-level shear.

...Mid-South into MS/AL...
While a couple of strong storms may persist across southern AR early
today, storm intensity should wane this morning as instability is
exhausted in vicinity of the upper low and occlusion.

Farther east into AL, stronger mid/upper-level winds are forecast
this afternoon, and a pocket of weak instability (MLCAPE around 500
J/kg) may develop amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower
60s ahead of a cold front. While a strong low-topped storm could
occur across southern AL this afternoon, the overall severe
potential currently appears low.

..Guyer/Goss.. 12/14/2018

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.

...FL...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.  Morning radar
loop shows widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting the west
coast of the FL Peninsula, with activity spreading eastward across
the SLGT risk region.  This will significantly limit
heating/destabilization.  Nevertheless, forecast soundings show weak
but sufficient CAPE values and strong deep-layer shear today into
tonight.  This may result in a few organized cells within the
broader precipitation shield.  Rotating/bowing segments capable of
damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado spinup are the main concerns
today.  The threat should end from west to east across the FL
Peninsula this afternoon and evening.

..Carolina Coast...
Strong surface pressure-falls are forecast over the eastern
Carolinas later today.  This will result in strengthening southerly
low level winds and rapid destabilization along the immediate coast.
Model solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms offshore
this evening and tonight.  If a few of these stronger storms can
spread inland, a marginal risk of damaging winds would be present.

..Hart/Broyles.. 12/14/2018

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact coastal North Carolina early
Saturday, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep yet filling upper low will move from northern AL and MS
toward the Appalachians providing lift and cooling aloft to much of
the Mid Atlantic. A stationary front will be situated over the
eastern Carolinas with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast,
with a cold front extending southward across southern FL. A broad
zone of 40 kt southwesterly winds at 850 mb will maintain modest
warm advection ahead of these boundaries, with marginally favorable
shear profiles for a brief supercell or two near the outer banks of
NC during the afternoon. Other storms are likely with heating over
southern FL, but lapse rates aloft, as well as lift, will not favor
much of a severe threat there.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Jewell.. 12/14/2018