Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2020

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail are expected
from far east Texas across central and southern Louisiana this
evening. Other severe storms will occur across the southern and
middle Texas Coastal Plains through tonight.

...Far East Texas/Central and Southern Louisiana...
The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a shortwave
trough moving through east Texas. An MCS is ongoing ahead of the
trough in far east Texas and western Louisiana. The airmass ahead of
the MCS is moist with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is
contributing to moderate to strong instability which is evident on
the 00Z sounding at Lake Charles. That sounding has 3300 J/kg of
MUCAPE with a steep lapse rate in the 850 to 700 mb layer. In
addition to the moisture and instability, the sounding also has 0-6
km shear near 50 kt. This should be favorable for severe storms this
evening. As the MCS tracks eastward across central and southern
Louisiana, the stronger cells within the MCS should be accompanied
by damaging wind gusts and hail. Have introduced a slight risk from
far east Texas eastward across much of the southern half of
Louisiana to the west edge of Lake Pontchartrain.


...Southern and Middle Texas Coastal Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
from north-central Mexico extending northeastward into the southern
Plains. A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along
the southern edge of this plume in south-central Texas. A moist
airmass is located from near the cluster eastward to the southern
Texas Coast where surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. This is
contributing to moderate instability with the 00Z sounding at Corpus
Christi showing 3200 J/kg of MUCAPE. In addition, the sounding has a
steep lapse rate in the 850 to 500 mb layer with 0-6 km shear near
50 kt. This will support supercells with large hail and damaging
wind gusts. As the cluster gradually moves eastward toward the
southern Texas Coast this evening, the wind damage threat should be
maintained as cells congeal, especially if an organized line segment
can form.

..Broyles.. 04/10/2020