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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 167 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 120135Z - 120900Z
WW 0167 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
835 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Deep South Texas
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 835 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue to
build southward across Deep South Texas through the evening and
overnight period.  Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be
possible in the more intense cells.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles south of Mcallen
TX to 10 miles west northwest of Corpus Christi TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 165...WW 166...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.

...Hart

  WW 165 SEVERE TSTM TX 112040Z - 120300Z
WW 0165 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Parts of south central Texas and the Edwards Plateau

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along
and to the cool side of a slow-moving front, while other storms in
northeast Mexico will approach the border.  The initial more
discrete storms could be supercells with an attendant threat for
isolated very large hail.  By this evening, there will be the
potential for some upscale growth through storm mergers, and some
increase in the threat for damaging winds.  Prior to the upscale
growth, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out with supercells
along the front.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest
of New Braunfels TX to 45 miles west southwest of Laredo TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 164...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Thompson

  WW 0167 Status Updates
WW 0167 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 167

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LRD
TO 25 S ALI TO 20 NW CRP.

..BROYLES..05/12/21

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 167 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC047-061-215-261-273-355-409-427-489-120540-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROOKS               CAMERON             HIDALGO             
KENEDY               KLEBERG             NUECES              
SAN PATRICIO         STARR               WILLACY             


GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-250-120540-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO 

LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX 

LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX 

COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OUT
20 NM 
  WW 0166 Status Updates
WW 0166 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 166

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N LCH TO
30 E POE.

..BROYLES..05/12/21

ATTN...WFO...LCH...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC003-120440-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0165 Status Updates
WW 0165 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 165

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW LRD
TO 20 ESE COT TO 30 S SAT TO 30 WNW AUS.

..BROYLES..05/12/21

ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 165 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC013-021-055-091-123-131-149-177-187-209-249-255-285-287-297-
311-453-479-491-493-120240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATASCOSA             BASTROP             CALDWELL            
COMAL                DEWITT              DUVAL               
FAYETTE              GONZALES            GUADALUPE           
HAYS                 JIM WELLS           KARNES              
LAVACA               LEE                 LIVE OAK            
MCMULLEN             TRAVIS              WEBB                
WILLIAMSON           WILSON              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  MD 0600 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
MD 0600 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1047 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167...

Valid 120347Z - 120545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 167
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
over the next few hours across south Texas. The severe threat will
shift southeastward into the central part of WW 167.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Brownsville shows a
severe line segment about 50 statute miles to the west of Corpus
Christi. The line is located along the western edge of a pocket of
strong instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500
J/kg range across the eastern part of south Texas. Low-level flow
has increased near this pocket of instability. For this reason, the
intensity of the line is expected to be sustained as it approaches
the coast near Brownsville late this evening. Damaging wind gusts
and isolated large hail will be possible with the stronger parts of
the line. The wind damage threat may become the greater threat as
the line continues to organize.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28159728 27939870 27829946 27559957 26909936 26339902
            26069857 25969733 25959711 26579722 27089733 28159728 

  SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH TEXAS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe gusts and large hail are possible tonight over south Texas,
and strong to locally severe gusts resulting in wind damage are
possible across southern Louisiana.

...South TX...
Strong high-level westerly flow will remain across northern Mexico
into TX and the western Gulf through early Wednesday morning. 
Although forcing is characterized as weak, cold pool consolidation
will probably continue with an expanding thunderstorm cluster over
interior south TX.  The 00 UTC Brownsville raob exhibited an 18 g/kg
lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio---supporting storms this evening. 
The activity is forecast to grow upscale and probably reach the
coast later tonight with a risk for severe gusts and wind damage. 
Please refer to MCD #598 for the short-term details regarding the
forecast severe risk in south TX.

...Louisiana vicinity...
A mid-level disturbance moving east across east-central TX is
forecast to move into the lower MS Valley later tonight.  An
organized thunderstorm cluster over the Sabine River Valley will
continue to move east-southeast into rich low-level moisture.  The
00 UTC Lake Charles raob showed 2500 J/kg MLCAPE whereas the Slidell
raob showed only 750 J/kg MLCAPE.  Based on short-term model
guidance, it seems plausible a wind-damage threat will continue into
the late evening across southern parts of Louisiana before gradually
weakening as it encounters weaker instability near Lake
Pontchartrain and southern MS late tonight.

...Southern GA vicinity...
A weak mid-level impulse moving east across the northeast Gulf Coast
will continue east to the GA coast by late tonight.  The 00 UTC
Tallahassee, FL raob showed 1800 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-kt effective
shear---supportive of organized multicells.  Strong to locally
damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms as a cluster of
storms moves east across southern GA this evening into the early
overnight.

..Smith.. 05/12/2021

 






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