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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 17 09:56:02 UTC 2019.MD 0106 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA
MD 0106 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Areas affected...Central into eastern IA

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 170646Z - 171045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates, is
expected to continue for a few more hours.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough continues to impinge on
the discussion area, with strong divergence noted at 300 mb
associated with the left-exit region of a pronounced jet streak. As
such, adequate upper-level support for ascent remains in place to
encourage the lifting of saturated parcels through a deep dendritic
growth layer (-12 to -17 C), where heavy snow will remain possible,
including at least brief occasions of 1 in/hr snowfall accumulation
rates. 

As sunrise approaches, the intensity of the primary band of snow is
expected to wane, with much lower snowfall rates expected per latest
high-resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   40889127 41239317 41709455 42649404 42989286 42679145
            42099056 40949059 40889127 

  SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected over a portion of the Southeast
States as well as California.

...Southeast States...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central plains will move
east northeast today, reaching the OH and TN Valleys later this
afternoon and evening, preceded by a minor impulse. A southerly
low-level jet will strengthen across the southern Appalachians
within exit region of an intense upper jet located within base of
the shortwave trough. A few thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12Z over
the TN Valley in association with the lead impulse. In wake of this
feature, low-level theta-e advection along the warm conveyor belt
will promote a corridor of very marginal instability in the presence
of weak mid-level lapse rates. Additional showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop within cold frontal zone as it
advances eastward later today and evening. 

...California through Great Basin region...

Steep mid-level lapse rates resulting from cold air aloft will
persist within the broad circulation of a large upper trough,
contributing to very weak instability with 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE.
Vorticity maxima moving through this feature will promote areas of
showers as well as a few embedded thunderstorms. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible farther east into the Great basin,
especially as the boundary layer destabilizes this afternoon.
However, coverage will probably remain less than 10%.

..Dial/Squitieri.. 02/17/2019

  SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that one branch of split westerlies
emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will undergo at least some
amplification across the U.S. during this period.  Within the base
of larger-scale mid-level troughing inland of the Pacific coast,
another in a series of digging short wave impulses is forecast to
progress across the Southwestern international border area, before
gradually turning eastward/northeastward toward the southern U.S.
High Plains by late Monday night.

Downstream, it appears that short wave ridging within the
mid-latitude westerlies will build in phase with the subtropical
stream, across the lower Plains into the lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys.  This is on the northwestern periphery of a subtropical
ridge centered near/east of the Bahamas, which is forecast to remain
prominent through this period.

Models indicate that increasing mid-level confluence, between the
building ridge and a digging trough within a branch of westerlies to
the north, will support the southeastward development of a center of
expansive cold surface ridging across the northern Plains through
southern portions of the Great Lakes region.  Along the
quasi-stationary shallow southwestern periphery of this air mass, it
appears that a warming and moistening southerly return flow off the
western Gulf of Mexico will contribute to a gradual erosion of this
air mass near coastal areas.  

Farther inland, as the return flow strengthens Monday night
(including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb), an east-west zone of
steepening isentropic ascent, near the leading edge of the more
substantive elevated moisture return, is expected to become the
focus for increasing thunderstorm development.  It appears that this
may be associated with CAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg, though
continuing elevated moisture return and steepening mid-level lapse
rates may contribute to increasing CAPE in its wake (to its  south).
However, the higher potential instability may coincide with
increasing mid-level inhibition associated with warming aloft.  As a
result, while some hail may be possible in the stronger storms, the
potential for severe hail currently seems negligible.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Kerr.. 02/17/2019

  SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley late Tuesday through Tuesday night, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
As another strong short wave impulse digs off the British Columbia
coast, toward the U.S. Pacific Northwest, models indicate that a
fairly significant downstream impulse will emerge from the
persistent larger-scale western U.S. upper troughing during this
period.  It appears that strongest associated mid-level height falls
will spread from the Southwestern international border area, near El
Paso, TX early Tuesday, through the middle Missouri Valley by 12Z
Wednesday, as the northwestern periphery of subtropical ridging
(centered east of the Bahamas) maintains considerable strength.

On this track, strongest mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling
will remain focused well to the cool side of a quasi-stationary
frontal zone near the northwest Gulf coast.  However, warming and
moistening associated with a strengthening southerly return flow off
the western Gulf of Mexico, above the surface front, appears likely
to contribute to considerable erosion of the southwestern flank of
the initially expansive cold surface ridging centered across the
Upper Midwest into lower Great Lakes.

Models continue to indicate the gradual development of weak surface
troughing along the strengthening low-level jet axis (including
50-70 kt at 850 mb), across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the
lower Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.  Across parts of Louisiana
and Mississippi, this corridor may become a focus for weak
boundary-layer destabilization by Tuesday evening, as surface dew
points begin to increase through the lower/mid 60s F.  Although this
probably will take place in the wake of the strongest 850 mb flow
(forecast to shift into the lower Ohio Valley), lower to
mid-tropospheric wind fields may remain sufficiently strong and
sheared to contribute to an environment at least marginally
conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

The evolution of a narrow squall line appears possible Tuesday
night, with isolated supercells perhaps also possible within and
just ahead of the line, accompanied by at least some risk for a
tornado or two, in addition to potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2019

 




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