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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 10:38:01 UTC 2020.No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 10:38:01 UTC 2020.SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected Thursday over portions of the central
Gulf Coast states, and possibly into the southern Appalachians late.

...Discussion...
An upper trough -- and evolving closed low -- over the central U.S.
will be the primary feature of interest this period with respect to
the convective forecast, as it shifts gradually eastward and reaches
the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region through latter stages
of the period.  Elsewhere, flanking ridges will prevail, though an
eastern Pacific short-wave trough should reach the Pacific Northwest
overnight.

At the surface, a weak closed low, along the northern extent of an
inverted trough extending northward from the Gulf of Mexico, should
evolve during the second half of the period over the Missouri
vicinity, and then reach the Mid Mississippi Valley by 24/12z.  The
trough/weak front will cross the Lower Mississippi Valley through
the day, and then the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley
region overnight.

At this time, it remains likely that surface-based instability will
remain confined largely to the northern Gulf of Mexico, with only
minor potential for any higher theta-e air to creep inland.  While a
non-zero severe risk appears to exist over the immediate coastal
areas, primarily across Louisiana's most southern extent, no risk
area will be introduced at this time as potential still appears
unlikely to reach even MRGL risk levels through the period.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:     <5%     - None

..Goss.. 01/22/2020

  SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the southern and
middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.

...Discussion...
While a northwestern U.S. upper-level short-wave trough dampens as
it moves inland and then east-northeastward toward the Canadian
Rockies, a more substantial eastern U.S. trough will shift gradually
northeast with time.  The embedded low is forecast to shift
gradually northeastward across the Mid South and Ohio Valley, while
a weak/trailing surface cold front/trough crosses the Southeast. 
With time, weak secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected in the
vicinity of the Carolinas, near the triple point of the
main/occluding Ohio Valley low.  This secondary low should reach the
Chesapeake Bay by Saturday morning, as the trailing boundary moves
offshore.

With cold low-level air expected to remain slow to erode from the
Southeast, given antecedent polar high pressure, little inland
destabilization potential is evident.  The weak low-level lapse
rates -- and stable boundary layer expected in areas away from the
coasts -- suggest no more than minimal severe-weather risk at this
time.  As such, no risk areas will be drawn, with just a general
thunder area from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic.

..Goss.. 01/22/2020

  Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2020

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the global models appear to be in good large-scale
agreement through day 6 and into day 7 (Monday/Tuesday Jan. 27-28).

On days 4-5, an upper low is expected to progress eastward across
the Northeast toward the northwestern Atlantic, while secondary
troughing gradually evolves in the wake of this system, over the
eastern third of the country.  Meanwhile farther west, upper ridging
will shift out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains, as
eastern Pacific troughing noses inland Day 5.

By the start of day 6 (Monday), gradual cyclogenesis is progged over
the central/southern High Plains area, within broader lee troughing.
The developing low should begin to shift eastward into the lower
Plains, as upper troughing advances.  

On day 7, models begin to diverge, both with the evolution of the
upper system as it approaches the Plains, and with the associated
surface cyclone's strength/location/evolution.  While convective
potential should increase over the southern Plains Day 7, and
possibly into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast States
Day 8, rapidly diverging model solutions during these latter stages
of the period present considerable uncertainty with respect to the
convective forecast.  As such, this evolving system will require
monitoring in subsequent forecasts, but no assessment of severe risk
can confidently be offered at this time.

 






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