Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SMALL PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are anticipated from central New Mexico into
parts of western Texas late Sunday into Sunday night.

...Discussion...
An amplified upper trough will move across the Great Basin on
Sunday, while another wave to the south moves across northern Baja
CA and into AZ. By late in the day, gusty south winds will increase
across the Rockies and into the southern High Plains, as low
pressure develops over WY through 00Z.

During the late evening and overnight, a prominent cold front will
move out of AZ and into NM as the parent wave aloft continues
northeastward across NM and into the central to southern High
Plains. The surface low is forecast to deepen overnight into CO,
with a surface trough into eastern NM and western TX through 12Z
Monday.

After a full day of heating, low-level lapse rates will be steep,
and gusty winds overnight should maintain relatively warm
temperatures ahead of the cold front. Dewpoints from the upper 40s
to mid 50s F should also be maintained ahead of the front, with
thunderstorms developing near the cold front after about 03-06Z.
Deep-layer shear will be strong, with supercell wind profiles.
Instability will be marginal over central NM, perhaps supporting
locally severe gusts or marginal hail, with a potentially greater
concentration of severe storms into eastern NM where low-level
moisture will be more abundant with MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. The
strongest cooling aloft will spread over northern NM and into the TX
Panhandle, and this is where a potentially greater hail and wind
threat could develop. Both cellular and possibly QLCS storm mode
will be possible, with storms tied to the cold front. A small
corridor of higher severe probabilities could be added in later
outlooks as trends warrant.

..Jewell.. 10/30/2026

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on
Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into
the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid
60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and
cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main
severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold
front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely.
Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient
low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear
structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will
be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.

By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with
more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS
Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold
front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for
damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but
substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and
widespread clouds/precip.

This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern
states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over
some of the Gulf Coast states.

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Fire-weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS today,
given widespread precipitation and a limited overlap of dry and
windy conditions.

..Weinman.. 10/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...