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ALL SPC Mesoscale Analysis Curently in Effect
U.S. Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm & Fire Wx Alerts

WW 101 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 250740Z - 251400Z
WW 0101 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
240 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Arkansas
  Northeast Louisiana
  Western Mississippi

* Effective this Thursday morning from 240 AM until 900 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A broken convective line will continue to steadily
progress northeastward across the region overnight. A gradually
destabilizing air mass downstream along with strong shear will
support well-organized storms and bowing segments. Damaging winds
are the most probable hazard, although a tornado risk may exist with
line-embedded circulations.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of
Greenwood MS to 20 miles south southwest of Natchez MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 100...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
23035.

...Guyer

  WW 100 TORNADO LA TX 250455Z - 251100Z
WW 0100 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern and western Louisiana
  Far southeast Texas

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1155
  PM until 600 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell crossing the Sabine River may
continue to pose a near-term tornado threat. Additional storms
forming in a line to its south may intensify as well with an
associated damaging wind and brief tornado risk through dawn.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles south southwest of Fort Polk
LA to 50 miles east northeast of Shreveport LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25025.

...Grams

  WW 0101 Status Updates
WW 0101 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 47

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TQE TO
20 WNW LNK TO 40 W BIE TO 15 N HLC.

WW 47 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 110600Z.

..DIAL..04/11/19

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...ICT...GLD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 47 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NEC001-019-023-035-037-059-061-079-081-083-099-121-125-137-141-
143-181-185-110600-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BUFFALO             BUTLER              
CLAY                 COLFAX              FILLMORE            
FRANKLIN             HALL                HAMILTON            
HARLAN               KEARNEY             MERRICK             
NANCE                PHELPS              PLATTE              
POLK                 WEBSTER             YORK                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

  WW 0100 Status Updates
WW 0100 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 100

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE LFK TO
40 WSW IER TO 20 NW IER TO 25 SW MLU TO 35 NW MLU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440

..MOSIER..04/25/19

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC003-011-021-039-043-059-061-069-073-079-085-111-115-127-
250840-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                BEAUREGARD          CALDWELL            
EVANGELINE           GRANT               LA SALLE            
LINCOLN              NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
RAPIDES              SABINE              UNION               
VERNON               WINN                


TXC241-351-403-457-250840-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JASPER               NEWTON              SABINE              
TYLER                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
  No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 25 08:16:02 UTC 2019.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a wind damage and isolated tornado
threat are expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley
through the central Gulf Coast region Thursday.

...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Region...

Dynamically driven MCS is progressing across the ArkLaTex region
early this morning. This complex of storms is forecast to propagate
across the lower MS Valley ahead of a pronounced short-wave
trough/associated surface front. Over the next 12+ hr,
boundary-layer moisture is expected to increase across the warm
sector, downstream of this feature. Latest guidance suggests PW
values well in excess of 1.5" will advance inland ahead of the front
and extensive clouds/precip should limit pre-frontal heating across
the warm sector. Even so, modest 12hr mid-level height falls are
expected to spread across the lower MS Valley/central Gulf State
region which reflects large-scale forcing for ascent that will
spread across lower latitudes during the day.

Early-day MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period.
Several organized line segments may ultimately evolve ahead of the
short wave which could produce bowing structures and perhaps a few
tornadoes. Forecast soundings across the lower MS Valley through the
Gulf Coast region exhibit strongly sheared profiles which would
favor organized rotating updrafts, including supercells; however,
the main storm mode should primarily reflect a larger complex of
storms due to the high PW content air mass and large scale forcing.
Damaging winds can be expected with bowing-type structures. More
meaningful tornado threat will be affiliated with any supercell
structures that manage to develop within the modestly buoyant
regime.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/25/2019

  SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage threat are
expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula, the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Florida Peninsula...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern Gulf Coast States
on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across
Georgia and the Florida Panhandle during the morning, and onto the
Florida Peninsula during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s F will result in destabilization across
much of the Florida Peninsula by late morning. In spite of the moist
airmass, deep-layer shear is forecast to be on the weak side for
organized convection. NAM forecast soundings suggest the environment
will support marginally severe multicells. As low-level lapse rates
become steep ahead of the front during the early afternoon, a few
isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible.

...Carolinas/Mid Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the lower Great Lakes
and central Appalachian Mountains on Friday. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60 to 65 F range should
result in some destabilization by midday. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front and move eastward, approaching the
Atlantic coast during the afternoon. Although instability is
forecast to remain weak, moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low-level lapse rates, evident on NAM forecast soundings, may
support a marginal wind damage threat with the stronger multicell
line segments. The threat should end by early evening as the cold
front moves offshore.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Broyles.. 04/25/2019

  SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage and hail threat
may develop across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma on
Saturday.

...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma...
A west-northwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place across most
of the CONUS on Saturday. A shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly east-southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley as a cold
front advances southeastward across the southern Plains. The front
is expected to be positioned around the Red River by late afternoon.
Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the lower to mid 60s F
should contribute to a pocket of moderate instability across north
Texas by afternoon. Forecast soundings across north Texas show a
capping inversion in place for much of the day, which could weaken
by around 00Z/Sunday. This may be enough to allow for isolated
convective initiation along the front. If this occurs, then the
moderate instability combined with 30 to 40 kt of 0-6 km shear and
steep mid-level lapse rates would be favorable for isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail. Due to the conditionality of this scenario,
will keep the threat level at marginal across north Texas and
southern Oklahoma for Saturday.

..Broyles.. 04/25/2019

  SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND MOST OF
NORTH DAKOTA...

...Synopsis...
An upper-level ridge will be present across the western CONUS on
Friday with an amplifying trough across the east. At the surface, a
weak surface low pressure will move through the Ohio Valley with a
surface high moving into the northern Plains.

...Far northeast Montana and much of North Dakota...
The surface pressure gradient will tighten as a high pressure center
moves toward the northern Plains this afternoon. This increasing
pressure gradient combined with downward transport of strong
mid-level winds due to the deep, well-mixed boundary layer in the
northern Plains will lead to gusty winds in eastern Montana and much
of North Dakota. In addition, this dry, continental airmass will
lead to relative humidity in the 15 to 20 percent range. Surface
wind speeds are expected to peak around 25 mph during the afternoon.
While winds will likely be as strong in northeast North Dakota,
slightly higher moisture and cooler temperatures due to expected
cloudcover will likely limit the threat for critical conditions in
this region.

...Dry Lightning Potential - Higher Elevations in California into
the Great Basin...
Some drier thunderstorms will be possible today from the California
transverse ranges into the Sierras and the Great Basin. Numerous
storms produced lightning across the Great Basin today and
conditions are expected to be similar tomorrow. The large fire
potential will be low from these storms as most of the storms are
expected to be confined to higher elevations where snowcover and
moist fuels will limit the potential for large fire spread.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

  SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...Synopsis...
Northwest flow aloft will be present across most of the CONUS on
Friday. A mid-level shortwave embedded within this flow will cross
the Rockies during the day. This will lead to some lee troughing in
eastern Colorado and Wyoming and strengthening winds across much of
the Intermountain West. A dry low-level airmass will remain across
Arizona and southern Utah where some of these stronger winds are
likely. Therefore, an elevated fire weather has been added for
northern Arizona and southern Utah for winds in the 20 to 25 mph
range and relative humidity in the 15 to 20 percent range.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

 




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