WW 275 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 052245Z - 060500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
545 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
North-Central and Northeast Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Southern and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this evening
along/near the Kansas/Nebraska border. The strongest thunderstorms
should pose a threat for large to very large hail (up to 2 inches in
diameter) and severe/damaging winds (up to 65-75 mph). A tornado or
two is also possible along/near a stationary front.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Hastings NE to 30 miles east of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27020.
...Gleason
WW 274 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 052025Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
325 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Minnesota
West-Central Wisconsin
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across
west-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. These
storms will likely continue eastward/southeastward throughout the
afternoon, posing a threat for large hail and damaging gusts from
central/southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of
Redwood Falls MN to 30 miles north of Camp Douglas WI. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30025.
...Mosier
WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0275 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0274 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 274
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N VVV TO
30 NW STC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
..DEAN..06/05/26
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 274
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-037-039-049-053-059-067-073-079-085-
093-103-109-123-127-129-131-139-141-143-145-147-151-157-161-163-
165-169-171-173-052340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN
CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO
DAKOTA DODGE GOODHUE
HENNEPIN ISANTI KANDIYOHI
LAC QUI PARLE LE SUEUR MCLEOD
MEEKER NICOLLET OLMSTED
RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE
RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE
SIBLEY STEARNS STEELE
SWIFT WABASHA WASECA
WASHINGTON WATONWAN WINONA
WRIGHT YELLOW MEDICINE
WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-063-081-091-093-095-107-109-119-
121-052340-
MD 0991 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI AND SOUTHERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 0991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/northern WI and southern Upper MI
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...
Valid 052224Z - 060030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and isolated hail may
spread east-southeastward into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of occasionally strong storms is ongoing at
2215 UTC across parts of northwest WI. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
effective shear of 30-35 kt are marginally supportive of organized
convection, though relatively weak midlevel lapse rates and
low-level flow have hindered potential for a more substantial severe
threat thus far. With time, expanding outflow within a steep
low-level lapse rate environment could support an increasing threat
for damaging wind as convection moves east-southeastward, and
isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest embedded
updrafts.
An isolated severe threat will spread to the north and east of WW
274 into early evening. The need for a new watch is uncertain given
current trends, but these storms will be monitored for an uptick in
storm organization through 00 UTC.
..Dean/Gleason.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46128990 46298865 46198805 46088782 45938764 45808757
45438765 45238772 45148777 44638820 43888891 43718978
43929106 44179168 44419196 44599232 44819138 45409040
46128990
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
MD 0990 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Areas affected...far northern Kansas...much of southern
Nebraska...southwest Iowa and far northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 052055Z - 052300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will develop from far northern Kansas across much
of southern and eastern Nebraska after about 22-23Z. Damaging winds
and hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows CU development within the
surface trough over western KS and intersecting the stationary front
extending from southern NE into IA. Initial development is most
likely from northern KS into south-central NE in the next 1-2 hours,
with additional activity increasing along the stationary front as a
modest low-level jet increases this evening.
Localized hail at or above 2.00" may occur, along with an eventual
mixed-mode damaging wind threat as storms travel within the
moderately unstable zone near the boundary. Visible imagery and
surface observations show ample moisture in place, which is also
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is a bit
marginal for supercells, but deep-layer mean winds speeds as well as
the increasing southerly winds at 850 mb should support accelerating
eastward propagating clusters, and perhaps some cells splits.
..Jewell/Mosier.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 40429476 39939525 39699925 39699999 39960009 40479990
40819962 41099881 41329786 41779616 41819549 41769505
41419483 41159473 40429476
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of
the central Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys. Strong to severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible
in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the ongoing thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest KS, near the
intersection of weak lee troughing and the western edge of a remnant
outflow boundary extending across southern NE. Upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints are already in place east/southeast of this surface low
and outflow boundary. Southerly/southeasterly flow will persist
throughout the day, maintaining a large fetch of low-level moisture
advection from the southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. Steeper
mid-level lapse rates are also emerging out of the central High
Plains, spreading gradually eastward over these moist low-levels
throughout the day. As a result, a corridor of strong to very strong
buoyancy is anticipated from south-central NE/north-central KS along
the IA/MO border into far west-central IL by the late afternoon.
Expectation is that the outflow boundary will gradually retreat
northward while the cold front progresses slowly southeastward
across SD and NE. Convective initiation is anticipated along both of
these boundaries, beginning over north-central KS/south-central NE
near the surface low at the outflow boundary/cold front
intersection. Most guidance indicates this initiation will occur
after 00Z, but earlier initiation appears possible given moist
low-levels, robust heating, and mesoscale convergence. Recent RAP
soundings indicate minimal convective initiation by 21Z.
Once initiation occurs, strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg)
will support intense updrafts capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Modest deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear less
than 30 kt) could limit storm organization, with a trend towards a
more outflow-dominant mode. The generally modest mid-level flow also
suggests upscale growth into an organized convective line is low.
Even so, a combination of convergence along the outflow and/or cold
front, as well as modest warm-air advection, will contribute to
additional storm development eastward into the Mid MS Valley.
...Upper Midwest...
Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending from
north-central WI southwestward through central SD. A low exists
along this boundary near the ND/SD/WI border intersection. This low
is forecast to track eastward along the front as it gradually shifts
southeastward, moving in tandem with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Buoyancy will be
more limited here than areas farther south, but still sufficient for
a few stronger, more organized storms, particularly since the
deep-layer vertical shear will be stronger. Discrete storms with
large hail as the primary risk are possible early in the convective
cycle. Thereafter, a trend towards more bowing segments with
damaging gusts is expected. Multiple rounds of storms are possible,
and the overall coverage is expected to be high enough to merit
introducing 15% hail and wind probabilities.
...Lower MI...
An MCV (associated with an overnight MCS) is moving across northern
IL/far southern WI this morning. Activity associated with this MCV
is currently weak and non-severe, but potential for
re-intensification exists this afternoon as activity moves into
northern IN and southern lower MI. Cloud cover introduces some
uncertainty regarding daytime heating and resultant buoyancy.
However, if sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates
and mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic
damaging winds.
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the northern Plains. More
isolated severe storms capable locally damaging wind gusts may occur
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a mid-level trough will move from the East Coast to the
Atlantic with a strong ridge across the Great Lakes. A large scale
trough will be in place across the western CONUS with an embedded
shortwave trough moving from the Northwest to the northern Rockies
through the day. At the surface, a lee trough will extend along the
High Plains from eastern Montana to West Texas.
...Northern Plains and Vicinity...
Moderate to strong instability will develop across the northern
Plains with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Farther west, wrap-around
moisture will result in modest destabilization into northeast
Wyoming and eastern Montana. Storms will first develop in this area.
While instability will be less within this zone, stronger mid-level
flow will support storm organization including the potential for
supercells. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary
threat. In addition to this activity, additional storms are expected
along the dryline/front in central North Dakota where instability
will be greatest and temperatures are expected to warm into the
upper 80s to low 90s.
...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating and upper 60s dewpoints will support modest
destabilization ahead of the surface front across eastern Virginia
and vicinity on Sunday. Mid-level forcing associated with the
southeastward moving trough will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat from these storms with the threat
expected to wane after sunset.
..Bentley.. 06/05/2026
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND SOUTHWEST...
An isolated dry thunderstorm area was added across northeastern
Colorado with this update. While some areas of the Front Range and
High Plains have received above average rainfall in May, the plains
to the northeast saw less. Recent guidance from local partners
suggests that though some green up is occurring, underlying fuel
load is sufficiently dry to carry fire. Precipitable water values
range around 0.9-1" but isolated coverage and generally fast storm
motions will likely lead to little measurable precipitation.
Elevated highlights were also expanded to cover potential for
dry/windy conditions in the afternoon.
Critical conditions are expected across much of the Great Basin into
the Southwest Saturday afternoon. No changes were made to these
outlook areas. See previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026/
...Synopsis...
The upper trough over the Northwest is forecast to deepen and
intensify as it spread eastward into the Northern Rockies and
southern Canada Saturday. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will
move southeastward, overspreading a dry and hot air mass over much
of the western US. This will promote widespread elevated and
critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels from the Great basin
to the Southwest.
...Great Basin, Intermountain West and the Southwest...
As the upper trough over the Northwest/northern Rockies intensifies,
a belt of stronger flow will overspread the hot and dry surface
conditions across the Western US. The mid-level jet max will aid in
efficient mixing of strong winds to the surface. Sustained southwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph are anticipated. With continued poor overnight
recoveries, RH values in the single digits and low teens are
expected on a widespread basis. Sustained critical fire weather
conditions are expected across portions of eastern NV, southern UT,
and northern AZ.
Weaker flow aloft farther south and east will still promote
widespread elevated conditions with 10-20% RH and surface gusts of
15-20 mph. Potentially enhanced by local terrain across southern AZ
into the Four Corners, some potential for brief critical conditions
may develop given drying fuels and increasing burn period duration.
...ID and Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the upper trough will impinge on the western edge of
surface moisture moving westward into the higher terrain. This
ascent and diurnal heating could support isolated thunderstorm
development across southern and eastern ID. Likely high-based, these
fast-moving storms would have limited precipitation efficiency.
Isolated dry lightning strikes would be possible. Currently,
convection appears more likely farther northeast where moisture is
more robust.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis...
A deepening upper-level trough will bring multiple rounds of
enhanced flow across portions of the western US from the
Intermoutain West into the Great Basin and Southwest. Multiple
periods of critical fire weather will be likely from D3/Sunday
through D6/Wednesday. Beyond the mid-week, flow aloft weakens
gradually. A few areas of locally critical conditions may persist
across the southwest D7/Thursday.
...Day 3/Sunday...
The upper-level low will advance towards the Northern Rockies, with
a trailing cold front further south and east. The strongest winds
aloft will overspread eastern UT, northern and eastern AZ, and
western CO. Expect sustained southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph to
overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15 percent,
across the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The 70 percent Critical
probability remains across southern and eastern UT, northern AZ, and
western CO. 40 percent Critical probabilities encompass the
remaining portions of southeast NV, northwest NM, and central WY
where fuels are receptive. While confidence is not yet high enough
to warrant a drawn area, a non-zero chance of mixed dry/wet
thunderstorms over northern UT will be watched with future forecast
guidance.
Strong mid-level flow will also overspread portions of southern
Idaho on D3/Sunday. A secondary 70% critical region was introduced
across the Snake River Plain. In this region, strong westerly
surface flow around 20-30 mph will overlap relative humidity
reductions to around 10-15 percent and critically dry fuels.
...Day 4/Monday...
The region enters a temporary synoptic transition phase between the
departing northern Rockies trough and the next approaching Pacific
system. Broad and persistent southwesterly flow will continue across
Southwest and Great Basin. Deeply mixed profiles under clear skies
will generate localized breezy conditions with 15 to 25 mph gusts
amid relative humidity reductions to 5 to 15%. The 70% area was
maintained with this update across southern Utah into northern
Arizona with a slight expansion into western Colorado. 40% Critical
probabilities encompass the remaining portions of southeast NV,
western CO, and central WY where fuels are receptive.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday...
Medium-range models and ensemble guidance show strong consensus for
a secondary, potentially more intense trough digging into the
western US again by mid-week. Ahead of this feature, an amplified
pressure gradient will trigger strong south/southwest surface winds.
This will likely cause continued widespread critical fire weather
conditions across a large swath of the Great Basin and Southwest. A
70 percent Critical probability was maintained across southern UT
and northern AZ D5/Tuesday where confidence is highest. Slight
expansion of the 70% was given in western Colorado where confidence
in stronger winds has increased. A 40 percent Critical probability
also continues Tuesday and Wednesday in nearby areas including far
eastern NV and portions of central WY.
A small 40% area was introduced across northern Arizona into
southern Utah D7/Thursday. Consensus is increasing that continued
overlap of dry/windy conditions will continue into this period.
After multiple rounds of windy/dry conditions fuels in the region
will be critically dry.
..Thornton.. 06/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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