Current SPC Activity Chart

Current Severe US Wx Maps

SPC Activity Chart
Hazard Sun (10/25) Mon (10/26) Tue (10/27) Wed (10/28) Thu (10/29) Fri (10/30) Sat (10/31) Sun (11/01)
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Fire Extreme Extreme No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area

Forecast Discussion - Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 251600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z


   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward over the
   Carolinas today, and an associated surface cold front will move
   southward across the Carolinas in its wake.  There will be a window
   of opportunity for isolated thunderstorms today in the zone of
   ascent across eastern NC, and where surface heating/destabilization
   will be greater along the front into central SC (prior to the onset
   of subsidence late today).  Farther south, the threat for occasional
   thunderstorms will persist across south FL within a tropical
   moisture plume (PW values in excess of 2.3") that extends
   north-northeastward from tropical storm Zeta in the western
   Caribbean Sea.

   Downstream from an amplified northeast Pacific ridge, and midlevel
   trough will continue to dig southward over the Great Basin.  A
   confluent northern stream will help maintain a large/cold surface
   high immediately east of the Rockies, with the consolidated
   baroclinic zone on the leading edge of the cold air mass expected to
   extend from southwest TX to southeast OK by the end of the period. 
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon into
   tonight in the vicinity of the Four Corners in the zone of ascent of
   ascent preceding the Great Basin trough, and in advance of an
   ejecting southern-stream now just off the southern CA coast. 
   Farther east, elevated thunderstorm development is expected the last
   3-6 hours of the forecast period in response to strengthening warm
   advection and destabilization atop the shallow cold air mass across
   northwest TX and OK from 06-12z.

   ..Thompson/Gleason.. 10/25/2020