SPC AC 050033
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected near/along the northern Gulf Coast
tonight.
...01z Update...
Low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing east-northeast across
the lower MS Valley early this evening. A corridor of weak
convection is noted ahead of this feature from southeast LA into
southwest AL. The deepest, more robust updrafts over southeast LA
are generating a few flashes of lightning. Surface-based buoyancy is
not expected to materialize inland through sunrise, and any
thunderstorm activity near the Gulf Coast will be driven in large
part by warm advection, and should remain elevated. Midlevel
instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for
severe.
..Darrow.. 12/05/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 041728
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.
...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.
...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any
surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
SPC AC 041911
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.
...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.
As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
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