SPC AC 230539
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.
...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across
northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper
low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the
surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with
modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain.
Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend
region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through
the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north
of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture.
...Big Bend Region to Central Texas...
Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of
the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by
evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front
across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the
front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms
may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will
quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the
boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day
in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support
effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a
combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2
to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for
storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the
potential for severe convection.
A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for
upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it
propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for
damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear
parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM
solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable
phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively
low probability scenario.
..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
SPC AC 230636
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday
through Saturday night.
...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify
significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates
behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave
perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern
Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level
troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday
night.
As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front
will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in
its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant
latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and
the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture
return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top
the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some
possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central
US much of Saturday.
...South Texas Coast...
As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains
forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will
rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South
TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will
allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level
lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more
consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger
buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the
immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe
risk appears quite limited.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 230830
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.
...Synopsis...
Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue
to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft
will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded
perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being
consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this
shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift
east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore
of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong
arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability
and some potential for strong to severe storms.
...Gulf Coast...
As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing
shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface
dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into
southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface
warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the
advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening
boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day
across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA.
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be
favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~
500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a
risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the
boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the
prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The
cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe
risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern
CONUS.
..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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