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SPC Activity Chart
Hazard Fri (04/24) Sat (04/25) Sun (04/26) Mon (04/27) Tue (04/28) Wed (04/29) Thu (04/30) Fri (05/01)
Severe Enhanced Enhanced Enhanced Severe No Area No Area No Area No Area
Fire Critical Elevated Critical No Area No Area No Area No Area No Area

Forecast Discussion - Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 241630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the
   southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley.
   Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible.
   The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches)
   should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex
   region.

   ...Oklahoma/North Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
   A persistent band of non-severe thunderstorms this morning, and its
   related outflow, continue to settle southward across southeast
   Oklahoma, south-central/southeast Arkansas into northwest
   Mississippi. The southeastern-most portion of the convective line
   may re-intensify across the ArkLaMiss today as the boundary layer
   warms, with some potential for a secondary round of upscale-growing
   storms into tonight across generally the same ArkLaMiss/Lower
   Mississippi Valley region. This includes damaging winds and some
   tornado potential, primarily QLCS-related, especially into this
   evening/tonight via a somewhat stronger wind field.

   The western periphery of the ongoing complex and its outflow should
   continue to decelerate, stall, and modify through the afternoon,
   setting the stage for a semi-corridor of heightened severe potential
   via this modifying outflow in conjunction with the surface triple
   point to this west, with intensifying storm development anticipated
   toward the 4pm-6pm/21z-23z time frame across southeast Oklahoma and
   nearby ArkLaTex. This will be in the presence of ample buoyancy and
   steep mid-level lapse rates. Wind profiles will further support
   intense supercells capable of large to very large hail, along with a
   tornado risk, accentuated by backed low-level winds near the outflow
   boundary and east of the triple point. With time, some clustering
   may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection
   spreads east-southeastward.

   Additionally, locally intense storms may also focus farther west
   across southern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity along/north of the
   southward-sagging front where relatively rich low-level moisture
   will persist in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.

   ...Texas Dryline - North/Central TX to Hill Country/Rio Grande...
   A highly conditional scenario exists in vicinity of the
   south/southwestward-extending dryline late this afternoon/early
   evening, with a concerning (mostly hail) severe potential should
   storms develop. Short-term guidance varies on the aggressiveness of
   eastward-mixing/dryline through peak heating, although the 12z Fort
   Worth sounding sampled respectable warm-sector moisture content this
   morning (upper quartile climo; 14.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio).
   Regardless, a concerning high degree of instability (3000+ J/kg
   MLCAPE) will exist near/east of the dryline late this afternoon. 

   Short-term models remain rather sparse on explicit indications of
   near-dryline convective initiation. However, sufficient dry line
   convergence and post-dryline heating/mixing could plausibly lead to
   isolated but intense thunderstorm development in the presence of
   negligible capping/boundary-layer inhibition. And while mid-level
   capping will be more prevalent, especially with southward extent,
   upstream 12z soundings from Midland/El Paso (both around -14C 500mb)
   suggest that some additional mid-level cooling is probable. Notably
   stronger mid/high-level winds were also observed in these RAOBs with
   50+ kt winds and 100+ kt winds at 500mb/250mb, respectively.

   Several sub-regional zones of potential isolated deep convective
   development are at least plausible, including in closer proximity to
   the surface triple point across North Texas/Metroplex general
   vicinity, extending into parts of central Texas where low-level
   mixing may be less impactful, and lastly in the immediate vicinity
   of the Rio Grande, potentially influenced by possible storm
   development across the border. If/where storms do develop late this
   afternoon/early evening, very large hail could occur along with
   localized severe-caliber wind gusts.

   ...Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
   A weak/convectively influenced mid-level shortwave trough will move
   northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today.
   Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning
   across the mid Mississippi Valley, but multi-layer cloud cover
   remains prevalent. Modest-caliber low-level moisture will continue
   to advect north-northeastward through the day ahead of the front,
   supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely
   organized clusters/cells that develop/intensify this afternoon may
   pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move
   northeastward this afternoon and evening. The residual clouds and a
   weakening low-level wind field should curb the overall magnitude of
   the severe risk, hence maintenance of MRGL/Category 1 risk.

   ...Western Nebraska...
   A couple of stronger storms may develop late this afternoon/early
   evening near a southeastward-moving front, further influenced by a
   mid-level impulse embedded within the base of the large-scale trough
   centered over the Canadian Prairies. In the presence of a strong
   deep-layer wind field, modest-caliber CAPE atop a well-mixed
   boundary layer could potentially yield an isolated severe gust/hail.

   ..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/24/2026

    

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
   SPC AC 240534

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
   ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
   for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
   the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

   ...Discussion...
   Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
   suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
   deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
   move subtly northward or northwestward through this period.  It
   appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
   elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
   short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
   border through northwestern Quebec.  To the southwest of the
   residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
   perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
   digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

   In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
   wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
   southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
   through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
   Sunday.  Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
   rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
   through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley.  Models
   continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
   mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
   perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
   portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.

   In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
   strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
   appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
   ridging.  Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
   lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
   surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
    Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
   of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
   a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
   Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
   near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.

   ...Central/Southern Great Plains...
   Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and
   boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
   River add uncertainty to this forecast.  Stronger mid-level ridging
   and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
   subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
   through the day.

   At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
   by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
   thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
   destabilization.  Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
   highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
   east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
   to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
   destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
   occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
   strong cloud-bearing layer shear.

   Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
   from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
   hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential.  However,
   increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
   organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
   late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
   southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
   Arkansas.

   ..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

   WUUS02 PTSDY2 

   

        
   SPC AC 240730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING
   INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail
   and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday
   evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains,
   before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the
   middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

   ...Discussion...
   A remnant elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation/shear axis may
   tend to shift north-northeastward through Saskatchewan/Manitoba
   through this period, while larger-scale troughing along an axis
   inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity
   weakens through this period.  However, mid/upper ridging across
   southern/central Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains
   and lower Mississippi Valley appears likely to maintain considerable
   strength, while a notable short wave perturbation accelerates out of
   the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley, within strong
   southwesterly flow between the two features.

   Models suggest that stronger mid-level height falls will generally
   overspread the eastern Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska
   vicinity of the high plains late Sunday afternoon into evening,
   before reaching southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley by
   12Z Monday, accompanied by a developing low within the northern
   portion of deepening surface troughing extending southward into the
   southern Great Plains.  Another low, developing by Sunday afternoon
   across the southeastern Colorado/Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region
   may reach portions of central Kansas.

   In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
   initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
   north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
   advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
   Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon.  Downstream, models
   suggest that a warm frontal zone may become better defined by early
   Sunday evening across southern Kansas into the Ozark Plateau
   vicinity, before tending to shift northward.

   ...Great Plains... 
   Although though there is not a strong signal yet evident within
   latest model output concerning potential convective evolution during
   this period, at least isolated to perhaps widely scattered supercell
   development may initiate along the dryline as far south as northwest
   Texas by late Sunday afternoon, in the presence of destabilization
   and strengthening shear.  By early Sunday evening, this probably
   will include enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs
   beneath a strengthening southerly low-level jet.  This may become
   supportive of increasing potential for a couple of strong tornadoes,
   in addition to large hail, with increasing storm coverage probable
   across the western Kansas vicinity.

   Gradually, large-scale forcing for ascent, focusing along the warm
   front, may support one or two upscale growing clusters of storms
   spreading into the middle/lower Missouri Valley overnight, with
   damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent severe hazard along
   with perhaps some continuing risk for tornadoes.

   ..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

   WUUS03 PTSDY3 

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z