SPC AC 240051
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central/southern High Plains, interior Northwest, and
south Texas.
...Southwest KS vicinity...
Convection may persist through much of the night across parts of
western KS, in response to a weak midlevel shortwave trough and
strengthening low-level jet. Veering wind profiles will provide
sufficient deep-layer shear for occasional storm organization,
though generally modest buoyancy and a tendency for much of the
convection to develop/persist to the cool side of increasing outflow
may tend to limit the coverage and magnitude of the severe threat. A
narrow corridor near and east of Dodge City appears to have the
greatest severe risk through dusk, though isolated severe gusts and
hail will continue to be possible across a larger portion of the
central/southern High Plains through much of the evening.
...Interior Northwest...
Strong to locally severe storms remain possible early this evening
from eastern OR into southeast WA and western ID. Large-scale
forcing is not particularly strong, but MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support occasional
storm organization, with a threat isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts. The threat should diminish later tonight with the onset of
nocturnal cooling/stabilization across the region.
...South Texas...
Tropical Depression Bertha is centered over the Houston vicinity
this evening. A continued weakening trend is expected through the
evening (reference NHC advisories for more information). To the
west/southwest of Bertha, modestly enhanced midlevel flow persists
this evening, per regional VWPs. Convection with locally damaging
gusts cannot be ruled out through dusk, with some threat possibly
persisting into late evening into parts of Deep South Texas.
..Dean.. 07/24/2026
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 231725
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.
...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.
Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.
...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized
storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.
..Thornton.. 07/23/2026
WUUS02 PTSDY2
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
SPC AC 231920
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible across portions of
southeastern Arizona on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
High amplitude ridging will build in across the central US on
D3/Saturday. West to northwesterly flow aloft will move through the
northern periphery of the ridge across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley.
...Southeastern Arizona...
Surface high pressure across the Four Corners will bring favorably
moist east to southeasterly flow into southeastern Arizona.
Convection will likely develop along the high terrain and spread
westward with time through the afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear
around 20-25 kts may allow for isolated organized storms capable of
severe gusts, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates amid inverted-v soundings.
...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region...
Several embedded disturbances will rotate through the flow across
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. Moderate to strong
instability is progged to extend across this region, however,
warming in the 850-700 mb will likely result in strong capping
across much of the region from the Great Lakes into the Midwest and
Ohio Valley. This will likely inhibit convective development and
overall severe potential in these regions.
..Thornton.. 07/23/2026
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
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