SPC AC 081234
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Within broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, an embedded
shortwave trough will move across the southern Appalachians to
coastal VA/NC by this evening. A surface cold front will sag south
across the remainder of the FL Peninsula. In the wake of earlier
convection, daytime heating will be needed for the redevelopment of
thunderstorms along the front. Besides modest low-level convergence
with the front, large-scale ascent will remain weak across this
region. This, combined with persistently poor mid-level lapse rates,
should limit convective intensity. Still, a locally strong gust or
two may occur until the front moves into the FL Straits.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/08/2025
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
SPC AC 080501
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S Tuesday
through Tuesday night.
...Discussion...
While a blocking high to the north of the Aleutians may undergo at
least some short-lived suppression, models indicate that a
downstream high may become a bit more prominent across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific during this
period. As this occurs, a belt of strong anticyclonic flow is
likely to be maintained across much of the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific through the northern U.S. intermountain region and Rockies.
One of a number of short wave perturbations progressing through this
jet is forecast to emerge and contribute to amplifying mid-level
troughing as it digs across the northern Great Plains through Upper
Midwest, accompanied by a rapidly migrating surface cyclone into the
upper Great Lakes by late Tuesday night. It appears that this will
be trailed by a gradually consolidating and increasingly significant
surface cold intrusion.
A notable preceding surface front may remain a focus for
thunderstorm development near and south-southeast of the Florida
Straits Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trailing flank of this
front is forecast to weaken across the southwestern Gulf Basin, and
some Gulf boundary-layer modification may commence to the north.
However, this is likely to remain rather modest, and an initial
low-level offshore flow across the Gulf Coast, veering to an
increasing westerly component by Tuesday night, will tend to inhibit
inland moistening.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
WUUS02 PTSDY2
SPC AC 080727
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that an increasingly prominent high may build once
again across and north of the Aleutians vicinity, but it appears
that there will be little change to the downstream flow across the
mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North America, through at
least this period. Downstream, there is substantive spread in the
model output concerning the subsequent evolution of short wave
troughing initially digging across the Midwest at the outset of the
period, and another notable perturbation digging toward the Great
Lakes region, after emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity.
Regardless, larger-scale mid/upper troughing to the east of the
Rockies will be reinforced, and related surface developments are not
likely to promote a southerly return flow off the Gulf Basin, where
boundary-layer modification in the wake of the prior front will only
be gradually underway.
..Kerr.. 12/08/2025
WUUS03 PTSDY3
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z
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