SPC AC 021953

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

   Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
   central Florida Peninsula through early evening.

   ...20Z Update...
   The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
   probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
   stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
   1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
   band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
   shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
   of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
   tornado.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

   ...Northern/Central Florida...
   At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends
   northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
   nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
   far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
   inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
   conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
   more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
   focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
   severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
   a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
   two could occur aside from damaging winds.

   ...Western Oregon/northern California...
   Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
   coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
   the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
   winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
   severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
   weak deep-layer shear.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z