SPC AC 130537

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
   the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
   Keys this afternoon into Saturday night.

   ...Discussion...

   Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio
   Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper
   trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution
   warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of
   the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA
   Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak
   low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part
   to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will
   eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may
   accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this
   region.  In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper
   TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance
   north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak
   disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development
   across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears
   negligible.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z