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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 200524

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
   the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from
   mid-afternoon to evening.

   ...Central to southern High Plains...
   A moderate mid-level northwesterly flow regime will persist between
   an anticyclone over the Great Basin and a low-amplitude trough from
   the Great Lakes towards the Ozarks. The latter part of this minor
   trough may be augmented by a southeast-moving MCV from remnants of
   weakening convection currently over western KS. Scattered to
   numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon over the
   central to southern Rockies, spreading across the adjacent High
   Plains. An additional corridor of scattered thunderstorms may be
   focused over northwest TX into southwest OK, where differential
   boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced to the
   south-southwest of early-day convection/cloud cover.

   After fairly extensive convection on Friday evening, instability
   will be comparatively weaker this afternoon. Still, with a moderate
   combination of buoyancy, characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg,
   and deep-layer shear, a few clusters and transient supercells may
   develop across the region. Cooler-than-normal surface temperatures
   north of northwest TX suggest the wind threat may be more strong
   than severe, a signal supported by 00Z HREF guidance. Isolated
   severe hail may be the primary hazard over the central High Plains.

   ...Southeast...
   Between a low-amplitude mid-level trough from the Great Lakes to the
   Ozarks and the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic, a belt of
   modestly enhanced southwesterly 700-500 mb winds should exist across
   parts of the Southeast from eastern GA to southern VA. Scattered
   thunderstorms appear most probable during the afternoon in parts of
   AL/GA/north FL, and separately in the lee of the southern
   Appalachians to the VA/NC border. Destabilization within the
   enhanced flow regime should be more pronounced between these regimes
   over the Carolina Piedmont and coastal plain. Upstream convection
   may consolidate into loosely organized multicell clusters capable of
   producing sporadic strong gusts and localized tree damage.

   ..Grams/Lyons.. 07/20/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        





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