SPC AC 170100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

   Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA
   AND OVER A SMALL PART OF CENTRAL INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms producing hail remain possible from southern Kansas
   into northwest Oklahoma this evening. Isolated severe hail or wind
   will persist across the northern Plains and into Iowa by Wednesday
   morning. Isolated severe storms may persist from Indiana into
   western Ohio this evening.

   ...IN/OH/MI...
   00Z DTX and ILN  soundings show modest instability but favorable
   shear profiles to sustain cellular storm mode this evening. However,
   storms across this region are beginning to decrease in coverage and
   intensity, though isolated strong to severe storms may persist with
   marginal hail or brief tornado risk before the upper trough moves
   out of the area and the air mass stabilizes.

   ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...
   A mixed boundary layer, increasing low-level jet and northwest flow
   aloft is aiding a few cells over southwest KS into northwest OK.
   Periodic large damaging hail remain possible, and a cell or two may
   persist this evening, perhaps toward the eastern TX Panhandle as
   moisture returns northwestward. However, the cooling boundary layer
   will eventually result in decreasing coverage.

   ...From MT to IA...
   Scattered storms exist from MT into ND, beneath cool temperatures
   aloft with the developing upper trough. Locally severe gusts may
   occur with any of this activity as a relatively dry/mixed sub cloud
   layer exists on 00Z soundings.

   Later tonight, as the low-level jet increases into the central
   Plains, a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints will reach eastern NE into
   IA, and may fuel cells initially producing hail following a possible
   MCS.

   ..Jewell.. 06/17/2026

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z