SPC AC 310033

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

   Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
   possible this evening in parts of southern and central Arizona.

   ...Arizona...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
   Desert Southwest with a notable dry slot extending from southern
   California into western Arizona. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is
   located in the Sierra Nevada of eastern California with a trough
   extending southeastward into southwestern Arizona. Surface dewpoints
   along the surface trough are in the upper 50s to mid 60s F.
   Low-level convergence along the surface trough and large-scale
   ascent associated with the upper-level system have contributed to
   recent convective development across parts of western and central
   Arizona. Cell initiation will continue to be possible near the
   surface trough for much of the evening. In addition, the RAP has an
   axis of instability extending from northern Mexico into central
   Arizona, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range.
   The WSR-88D VWP at Phoenix is sampling the wind profile east of the
   instability axis and has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with gradually
   veering winds with height in the low to mid-levels. This should
   support an isolated severe threat with rotating cells. Isolated
   severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats over the next
   few hours.

   ..Broyles.. 10/31/2026

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