SPC AC 161232

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   VIRGINIA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTH
   CAROLINA......

   ...SUMMARY...
   Fast moving thunderstorms may become widespread and accompanied by
   the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes across the Mid
   Atlantic today.  There is potential that a couple of storms could
   become capable of producing strong and long track tornadoes.

   ...Southeast States...
   An intense upper trough continues to deepen over the Mid MS Valley,
   with its associated surface cold front surging eastward across the
   Appalachians and into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic.  An active line of
   thunderstorms is accompanying the front from GA into western
   SC/NC/VA.  Low-level winds are very strong along and ahead of these
   storms, encouraging the risk of numerous severe wind gusts and
   embedded QLCS tornadoes along the line.  Clusters of thunderstorms
   have been developing ahead of the line as well, in a moist and
   strongly sheared environment.  These storms will also pose a
   severe/tornado risk through the day as the primary large-scale
   ascent arrives.

   ...Mid Atlantic States into NY...
   Farther north, low-level moisture is a little more limited and CAPE
   values will be slightly lower.  Nevertheless, intense low and mid
   level wind fields will be present across this region as the cold
   front approaches from the west.  Thunderstorms are expected to
   strengthen through the late morning across west-central VA into
   central NY/PA and spread eastward to the coast by early evening. 
   Forecast soundings across this area show very large low-level shear
   values that will favor the risk of widespread damaging winds and
   several tornadoes.  Strong tornadoes will be possible - especially
   from MD southward where the greatest low-level moisture will be
   present.

   In the wake of the main convection, secondary cyclogenesis is
   forecast to occur late this afternoon along the cold front over
   VA/MD.  The initial storms will remove most of the low-level
   moisture/instability, but the extreme intensity of the low-level
   winds fields and large-scale forcing could result in a secondary
   risk of damaging winds from low-topped showers and thunderstorms
   after dark.  This threat could spread northeastward into eastern
   PA/NJ and perhaps southern New England.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 03/16/2026

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