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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 210535

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are possible across parts of the Plains this afternoon
   and evening, most concentrated from Kansas into Iowa. Severe storms
   are also expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.

   ...Central Plains and Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
   Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today from the Great
   Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold
   front will advance eastward across the central and northern Plains.
   Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
   F will contribute to the development of a corridor of moderate
   instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are first expected to
   develop along the eastern edge of the instability corridor from
   eastern Kansas into northern Missouri around midday. Further to the
   west, strong surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence
   along the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development
   during the mid to late afternoon from southwest Kansas northeastward
   into southeast Nebraska. MCS formation will be possible across the
   area during the early to mid evening.

   Concerning the severe weather potential, RAP forecast soundings
   along the axis of strongest instability from Wichita, Kansas
   northeastward to south of Omaha, Nebraska at 00Z/Sunday show MLCAPE
   values peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Wind profiles are
   forecast to support supercells with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 kt
   range with substantial directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL.
   Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong speed shear in the mid-levels
   should result in a threat for large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
   inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant
   supercells along the instability axis. An isolated tornado and
   wind-damage threat should accompany supercells. As cell coverage
   markedly increases along and ahead of the front during the early to
   mid evening, the wind-damage threat should become more dominant. If
   an MCS can organize, then the wind damage and hail would be possible
   into the late evening from south-central Kansas northeastward into
   south-central Iowa. 

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the
   northern Plains today as a cold front advances eastward across the
   eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints should reach
   the 65 to 70 F range, contributing to the development of moderate
   instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
   develop along and ahead of the front during the afternoon across
   central and northern Minnesota. Another area of convective
   development could take place in the post-frontal airmass across
   northeastern North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings ahead of the front
   across central and northern Minnesota this afternoon show MLCAPE
   values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range and have strong deep-layer
   shear of 50 to 55 kt. This combined with speed shear in the
   mid-levels and steep lapse rates should support an isolated large
   hail threat, especially if supercells can form. Supercells should
   also be accompanied with an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat.
   Storms should move quickly east-northeastward across central and
   northern Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the southern
   Plains as an upper-level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. A
   lead shortwave trough is forecast to be present in the southern High
   Plains this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm
   development should take place from west Texas northward into the
   Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to remain
   weakly unstable. In spite of this, moderate deep-layer shear and
   steep low-level lapse rates should be enough for a marginal
   wind-damage threat by late afternoon. Hail will also be possible
   with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles/Karstens.. 09/21/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        





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