SPC AC 221126

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward
   Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an
   upstream trough now over MT.  Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will
   be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of
   ascent.  Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later
   this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will
   diminish.  Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning
   flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and
   minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening.

   Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough,
   and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated
   thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest
   TX.

   ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z