SPC AC 010601

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat
   will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the
   southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona
   into southwest New Mexico.

   ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
   A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across
   the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front
   advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A
   north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead
   of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As
   surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector,
   moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of
   the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will
   result in scattered to widespread convective development this
   afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take
   place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional
   more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley.
   By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected
   to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians.

   Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the
   1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee
   northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level
   speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing
   to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
   increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated
   tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The
   tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms
   form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is
   expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can
   become organized, with this potential persisting into the early
   evening.

   ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies...
   North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across
   much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level
   moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New
   Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid
   60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to
   develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher
   terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and
   moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New
   Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during
   the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
   around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will
   likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

   ...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
   An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today
   across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is
   forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to
   mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up
   this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability
   could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

   ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026

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