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Current U.S. Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussions
Current United States Mesoscale Discussion Legend
   SPC AC 281616

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

   Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of severe storms appears negligible through tonight.

   ...Mid-South to Southern Appalachians...
   A shortwave impulse over the Lower MO Valley will progress
   southeast, aiding in scattered shower development during the late
   afternoon across the Mid-South. Despite surface dew points only in
   the low to mid 30s, steep lapse rates through a combination of
   boundary-layer heating and very cold 500 mb temperatures near -32 C
   may support scant buoyancy (SBCAPE up to 250 J/kg). Here, convection
   could become sufficiently deep and cloud tops sufficiently cold to
   support mixed phase and charge separation, with a threat for
   isolated thunderstorms containing small hail and gusty winds.
   Farther east, shallow convection is expected during the late
   afternoon across the southern Appalachians with a leading shortwave
   impulse, but even less buoyancy and shallower convective depths
   suggest that thunderstorm probabilities are below 10 percent. 

   ...Coastal WA/northern OR...
   An offshore shortwave trough near 48 N and 132 W will move inland
   near the WA/BC border area by evening. Cooling mid-level
   temperatures and steepening lapse rates in the post-frontal
   environment should be sufficient for scant buoyancy near the coast,
   and an associated threat for isolated lightning flashes after 03Z.

   ..Grams.. 02/28/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        





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