Vancouver, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

565
FXUS66 KPQR 061925
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
1225 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm and dry weather will persist through
Thursday. Weak offshore flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday, before a trough brings a return to
cooler temperatures with chances for light rain Friday into
Saturday. Cool nights will bring chances for morning frost in
rural valleys away from urban cores this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...There has been minimal
change to the short term weather forecast with this morning`s update.
The region will remain under a persistent weather pattern through
Thursday, with conditions staying dry and much warmer than average. A
broad but low amplitude upper ridge will steadily build over the West
Coast, supporting the development of weak thermal troughing at the
surface along the coast and light offshore flow. With temperatures
aloft warming slightly and less morning cloud cover over the next two
days, expect high temperatures to trend several degrees warmer. The
NBM 10th-90th percentile for high temperatures depicts very narrow
spread, suggesting confidence in the temperature forecast is high.
Highs are still expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s on
Wednesday and lower 80s on Thursday, which is 10-15 degrees above
normal. Daily records on Thursday at most climate sites appear to be
out of reach with a 5% chance or less of tying or surpassing existing
record values, except for slightly higher chances of 15-20% at Salem
and Eugene. See the Climate section below for a full list of record
temperatures for October 8.

The latest suite of hi-res model guidance now suggests fog and low
stratus will be much less prevalent tonight into tomorrow morning and
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with most locations
experiencing sunny skies from sunrise to sunset. REFS probabilities
for low clouds are less than 10-20% tomorrow morning, except 30-40%
in the Cowlitz Valley. Probabilities for fog are also generally under
20%, except 30-40% along the central Oregon Coast from Lincoln City
to Florence. Based on the lack of widespread fog observed Tuesday
morning and how quickly low clouds were able to dissipate compared to
previous mornings, the trend of even less stratus and fog the next
two mornings seems reasonable, especially given the return of light
offshore flow and the extended duration of the ongoing dry stretch.
-23


.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...Model ensemble guidance is in
better agreement on Friday and Saturday in regards to the
synoptic-scale pattern and the potential for light rain. WPC`s
cluster analysis for 500 mb heights and anomalies suggests a trough
will move over B.C. and western WA Friday afternoon before becoming
more amplified and forming a potential closed cut-off low on Saturday
over the Pacific Northwest. This will bring two separate chances for
rain. The first chance will be with a weak Pacific cold front
associated with the incoming trough on Friday; rain chances begin
Friday morning for much of southwest WA and the north OR Coast/Coast
Range before spreading inland Friday afternoon/evening. Model
ensemble guidance suggests eastern slopes of the Coast Range and
locations to the west of the I-5 corridor within the Willamette
Valley will be mostly rain-shadowed, with only a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch of rain falling, if any at all. The NBM backs
this up, as PoPs only peak around 10-15% in these areas. Meanwhile,
PoPs and forecast rain amounts are relatively higher for the coast,
Willapa Hills, Cowlitz Valley, western slopes of the Coast Range and
Cascades, Cascade foothills, and locations east of the I-5 corridor
within the Willamette Valley and Portland-Vancouver metro. That said,
even these areas have low forecast rain amounts, with only a 15-35%
chance for 0.10 inches of rain or more, except a 30-50% chance along
and near the south WA/north OR coast, and in the south WA/north OR
Cascades and adjacent foothills. Therefore, no impacts are expected
with this frontal passage. QPF guidance suggests minimal post-frontal
showery activity Friday night, except for the Cascades and foothills
where orographic lift will allow showers to linger for a bit longer.

Chances for rain then increase again on Saturday as the cut-off low
moves over the area, especially for locations north of Florence,
Eugene-Springfield, and Oakridge. Northern zones have a 20-40% chance
of rain Saturday afternoon and around a 10-25% chance for 0.10 inches
of rain or more. Rain chances fall below 5-10% on Sunday and Monday
as dry low-level offshore flow develops, bringing breezy easterly
winds to the Cascades, foothills, western Columbia River Gorge, and
eastern Portland-Vancouver metro. Meanwhile, breezy north winds will
develop in the Willamette Valley.

The set-up this weekend will finally bring noticeably cooler
temperatures, with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees on Friday,
lowering to the upper 50s to lower 60s on Saturday. Sunday and Monday
trend a touch warmer as upper level heights rise again and offshore
flow strengthens, however guidance is confident temperatures will be
much closer to seasonal normals compared to what has been observed
thus far this month. Morning lows
will similarly cool, yielding increasing chances for frosty
temperatures in the low to mid 30s from Friday night through
Monday night. Frost may occur as early as Friday night in the
Upper Hood River Valley, with 30-40% chances of falling to 36F
or lower near Parkdale and Dee. Saturday and Sunday nights look
to be the coldest, with nearly 10% chances for frost in Hood
River proper, 50% near Odell, and 90% in Parkdale and Dee.
Elsewhere, frost chances reach 15-35% in north Oregon Coast
Range valleys, the central and southern Willamette Valley away
from urban cores, and the Cascade foothills from Cowlitz County
south to Lane County on Sunday night. Chances for a true freeze
peak Sunday night at 50-60% near Parkdale and Dee and 15-20%
near Odell in the Upper Hood River Valley, and at 20-35% along
the OR-58 corridor between Eugene and Oakridge. Those with
agricultural interests or home growers with sensitive outdoor
plants should continue to monitor the forecast this week. -23/36

&&

.AVIATION...Through 18z Wednesday...At 19z Tue, stratus has mostly
dissipated across inland and coastal areas. Any terminals with
lingering MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions should improve to VFR by
20z Tue. Winds increase and turn north to northwesterly this
afternoon, up to 5-10 kts inland and 10-15 kts along the coast
with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds decrease by 03-06z Wed, turning
more east to northeasterly along the western Cascades, Coast
Range, and into the coast into Wednesday morning. These easterly
winds should limit the amount of marine air able to infiltrate the
coast and inland, likely preventing another round of widespread
stratus and fog Wednesday morning. There are pockets of 10-20%
chances of MVFR/IFR conditions along the coast near KNOP and in
the Portland metro area, with 20-40% chances in the SW Washington
lowlands including KSPB, mainly after 13z Wed for inland areas..

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions have returned and are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. There`s a low
(10-20%) chance of stratus returning MVFR conditions 13-18z Wed.
Northwest winds 5-7 kts today, becoming light after 03z Wed. -03

&&

.MARINE...High pressure offshore will continue to maintain
diurnal northerly winds through the week with peak afternoon
and evening wind gusts of 20-25 kt today through Thursday. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect across the waters from 2 PM PDT
this afternoon into tonight, and another round of Small Craft
Advisories have been issued for 2 PM PDT Wednesday through
Wednesday evening. Expect largely wind- driven seas around 4-6 ft
through midweek, with a west- northwest swell of 3-4 ft at 10-12
seconds. High pressure aloft will also support areas of dense fog
developing nightly through the morning hours as cloud bases are
compressed down to the surface.

More active marine conditions are likely in the latter half of
the week as troughing over the Gulf of Alaska generates a
building northwest swell. Seas will increase to 7-10 ft
Wednesday into Thursday, with the longer-period swell also
supporting a moderate risk for sneaker waves at the coast.
Chances for rain return to the region Friday into the weekend,
though rain amounts are not expected to be impactful. -36/03

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures for October 8

LocationValue (Year)

Astoria 81 (1951, 1971)
Portland Int`l87 (2022)
Vancouver, WA89 (1891)
Hillsboro89 (2022)
McMinnville88 (2022)
Salem84 (1971, 2022)
Eugene83 (1934, 1943)

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 2 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ210-251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251>253.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271>273.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
x.com/NWSPortland