Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

935
FXUS61 KAKQ 091042
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
642 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for 12z TAFs

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widely scattered showers and isolated storms are
possible this afternoon and evening. Next chance of widespread rain
Sunday night and Monday.


2) Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with
another chance of rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widely scattered showers and isolated storms are
possible this afternoon and evening. Next chance of widespread rain
Sunday night and Monday.

The axis of a relatively weak mid level trough along with embedded
shortwaves will pivot over the east coast today. This, along with
the moisture return via southerly sfc flow, may be enough to trigger
a few showers today. However, the strongest forcing is split to the
FA`s north and south and despite increasing dewpoints, the
overall moisture profile is rather dry. Therefore, coverage
should be rather low. Best chance at rain or even an isolated
thunderstorm will be immediately along the coast (~30% PoP) and
up on the MD Eastern Shore (40-50% PoP) this afternoon.
Otherwise, expecting a mild and breezy day. Highs will be in the
upper 70s and winds will gust 20-25mph. Pleasant weather
continues Sunday. It will be warmer with highs in the mid 80s,
mostly sunny except immediately near the coast, and only light
winds.

A cold front with low pressure developing along it, along with and
UL trough supporting it from aloft, will bring widespread
showers later Sunday night into Monday. The GEFS probs of 0.1"
or greater stayed pretty steady in the 00z suite at 70-90%, but
did note a downward trend in the probs out of the ECMWF Ens
which dropped to less than 50% over much of the FA. As far as
storm potential goes, the timing of front will make it difficult
to get instability far enough north to impact any of the local
area. The NAM (which does tend to run a bit hot) indicates
instability making into NE NC and Hampton Roads, but it`s the
only one so far. Any thunderstorms that do form will likely be
confined to the far SE.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Seasonable temps Tuesday through Friday with
another chance of rain and potential storms Wednesday/early Thursday.

Below average temps behind the cold front expected Tues with highs
in the upper 60s. Near normal temps in the mid to upper 70s then
return for the rest of the week. Still looking at another front
moving through the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing a round of
showers and maybe some thunderstorms. Still a lot of uncertainty
around whether or not we can get strong storms out of the
system. The 00z guidance suite continues to show a strong UL
trough with the UL low potentially dipping as far south as the
Mid- Atlantic. This flow would support strong storms, but the
potential overnight timing would very much limit instability.
Still certainly worth keeping an eye on as a timing shift of 12
hours or so could raise severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 12z/09 TAF period. SCT-BKN high
level cloud cover is spread across the region and will persist
through the evening. A weak system passing overhead may spark a
isolated showers today. Seeing some widely scattered showers
over NE NC already, but overall impact to terminals should be
low. Maintained the Prob30s to ORF, ECG, and SBY, but did bump
the timing a little earlier for ECG based on radar trends. SSW
winds become breezy this afternoon with gusts of 15-20kt, then
diminish again after 00z.

Outlook: An area of low pressure approaches the region late
Sunday into Monday, bringing the potential for additional
showers and flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 555 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Have ended all remaining SCAs across the mid/upper Bay. Sub-
  SCA conditions should prevail through Sunday night.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Tuesday, with
  increasing N winds, as deepening low pressure moves offshore,
  followed by high pressure building in from the NW.

The latest wx analysis depicted high pressure well offshore, and
low pressure across the upper Great Lakes. A somewhat compressed pressure
gradient remains in place, allowing for elevated S winds, but
have allowed the remaining SCAs to end with just a few gusts to
20 kt in the Bay. Across the northern coastal waters, a few
gusts up to 20-25 kt are possible today, with seas around 4 ft,
while conditions farther south will have seas 2-3ft (in general
this has trended slightly weaker so no headlines will be
issued). Fairly benign marine conditions are then expected
tonight and Sunday as the pressure gradient weakens
considerably, allowing for an aftn sea/bay breeze with winds
becoming E-SE at ~10 kt.

The better chance for a more significant event arrives Monday
into Tuesday, as low pressure deepens while tracking along an
advancing frontal boundary, and continues to intensify offshore
Mon night as the next area of high pressure builds in from the
NW Tuesday. There are some model differences with respect to
timing and the exact position of the sfc features, but with
good model agreement that the sfc low tracks through the
Carolinas, northerly winds are anticipated, along with ample
mixing, so SCA headlines are likely for most, if not all of the
marine area. Local wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds in the
Bay are >50% and probs for 25kt gusts on the Ocean are also >50%
except over the far north. Gales are very unlikely unless the
sfc low were to intensify much quicker than forecast with latest
probs <10%. For now, have seas building to 5-6 ft nearshore in
the southern VA and NE NC waters and 4-5 ft N, but a stronger
low could lead to higher seas Waves in the Bay should reach 3-4
ft. Conditions improve later Tuesday as the system moves well
offshore with high pressure becoming centered over the local
area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB