Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS64 KBRO 021116 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
516 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Near to above-normal temperatures are expected through much of the
  week. The next cold front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.

- Periodic adverse boating conditions, mainly Monday night into Tuesday
  and late Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and passage
  of the next cold front.

- There is a moderate risk of rip current Monday through Tuesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light east winds and abundant cloud cover will allow overnight low
temperatures to fall into the mid 40s across the northern ranchlands
to the low to mid 50s across the Rio Grande Valley. Light winds
overnight will increase and become southeast on Monday. Monday will
be mostly cloudy and mild with highs in the mid to upper 70s, except
for the upper 60s at the beaches. The southeasterly flow will
continue to allow Gulf moisture to increase across the area Monday
into Monday night. Lows Monday will range from the 50s across the
Rio Grande Plains and the northern Ranchlands to the low to mid 60s
across the Rio Grande Valley and at the beaches. The clouds
dissipate and the pressure gradient relaxes a bit on Tuesday
resulting in slightly weaker southerly flow with high temperatures
climbing into the 80s, across much of the area.

The next cold front arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Breezy northeast winds and mostly cloudy skies are expected to
develop behind the front. However, post-frontal cloud cover may
present some temperature challenges, with some potential for highs
to struggle out of the 60s on Wednesday. Surface high pressure
builds into the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning as dry
air clears out the lingering cloud decks. Near to slightly below
normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday night with lows
generally in the 40s. Mostly sunny and mild on Thursday with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Clear and
chilly Thursday night with lows in the 40s, except along the
beaches. Friday will be pleasant with mostly sunny skies, low
humidity and light winds. Southerly flow returns for the weekend
with a mix of clouds and sun with above normal temperatures
returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period at all TAF sites. While some middle to low level clouds are
possible, there should not be enough to effect the flight
categories. Gusty southerly winds are expected for most of the
period with winds gusting up to 25 knots possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Light winds overnight will become moderate on Monday as pressure
gradient strengthens. A brief low-end Small Craft Advisory may be
needed for winds on the Laguna Madre and/or portions of the Gulf
waters Monday afternoon into Monday night. Conditions will improve
Tuesday into Tuesday night as the gradient decreases. Breezy
northeast develop on Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.
Another round of low-end Small Craft Advisories will be possible
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Conditions will improve
Thursday into the weekend as high pressure settles across the
western Gulf.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

As mentioned yesterday...January has finished, and the topsy-turvy
nature of the final week was enough to pull top five (for most)
warmest ranks through the 24th down a few pegs.  That said, a
several day window of 15-25 degree below average temperatures was
not enough to lower rankings below the top 25% (quartile) - and when
combined with December to take a look at meteorological (Dec-Feb)
winter so far, most locations are in the top-fifteen warmest (top
decile, or 10%, for most) - which is right in line with the
overall December-February forecast expectations.

Here are select rankings for January 2026, and December 2025-January
2026:

January 2026

Location (since)          Avg. Temp (Warmest Rank)     Warmest (Year)
Brownsville (1878)          64.5 (27th)                 69.2 (1890)
Harlingen (1912)            61.8 (36th)                 70.2 (2023)
McAllen (1942)              64.2 (18th)                 70.4 (1950)
Rio Grande City (1928/full) 58.1 (51st)                 69.2 (1950)
Raymondville (1913)         62.0 (29th)                 68.6 (1952)
Weslaco (1915)              61.7 (37th)                 71.5 (1950)
Port Mansfield (1958)       62.0 (10th)                 65.3 (2000)

December 2025-January 2026 (ending year shown in "since"

Location (since)          Avg. Temp (Warmest Rank)     Warmest (Year)
Brownsville (1879)          66.7 (8th)                  70.2 (1890)
Harlingen (1913)            64.0 (15th)                 67.6 (1950)
McAllen (1943)              66.5 (5th)                  68.3 (1950)
Rio Grande City (1929/full) 62.0 (15th)                 66.8 (1950)
Raymondville (1914)         63.7 (11th)                 67.8 (1952)
Weslaco (1915)              63.8 (15th)                 69.3 (1950)
Port Mansfield (1959)       63.6 (4th)                  64.0 (1971)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  64  78  59 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  59  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  62  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  57  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  64  72  61 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  61  77  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...64-Katz