Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS64 KAMA 060603
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the north
today, while elevated conditions persist across most of the
southern Texas Panhandle. Conditions remain favorable for fires to
spread quickly.

A pattern shift starting Tuesday will see chances of showers and
thunderstorms possible clear into next weekend. Chances for
impactful rainfall continue to increase.

The potential for severe thunderstorms late week remain low, but
we cannot rule out the threat Thursday through Saturday at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

H500 high pressure continues to be suppressed in the short term
period. A surface low remains anchored in eastern Colorado during
this period, and mid level winds stay strong over the CWA. At the
surface, expect strong winds both today and tomorrow afternoon.
Overnight, wind speeds may still be breezy. The direction of the
winds today will be southwesterly. Tomorrow, winds take on a more
southerly flow. Highs in the 70s are forecast for today across the
FA. On Tuesday, highs may actually remain in the 60s for some
areas due to increased cloud coverage and potential showers during
the day time. Tuesday`s PoPs are still not high for any
particular area, but confidence is increasing for western zones to
receive precipitation. QPF remains on the lighter side areawide.
Critical fire weather conditions stay forecast for our northern
zones this afternoon and evening. For more details see the FIRE
WEATHER discussion.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Signals for the weather pattern shifting are still strong in the
extended period. Upper level troughing in the west continues even 7
days outs. Yesterday`s model runs show the upper level low hanging
further back than previous runs. The slower this system takes to
move into our region, the more chances for rainfall we`ll have as
quality Gulf of America moisture surges in. Late in the long term
period, the operational GFS show the upper low accelerating into the
Plains while the operational ECMWF holds the system back further
west. If the ECMWF solution pans out, this may also aid in extending
rain chances into next week.

Generally, high temperatures in the long term period remain bound
to the 70s and 80s. 70 degree highs are more likely for the days
where afternoon cloud cover or precipitation will be prevalent.
PoPs Thursday onward continue to be moderate to high (50-80%)
daily for the rest of the period. Though these values are high
late week, concerns are still present that the storm mode will
limit QPF more than what long term models suggest, given their
broad spatial resolution. Still, medium to high chances remain for
certain areas to receive >0.5" of rain, especially in the
southeast Texas Panhandle. Concerns for severe weather remain
present, though the details continue to fluctuate since models
still don`t agree of the timing of the shortwaves or the placement
of instability this weekend.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours over all sites. Low
level wind shear is still forecast to affect KDHT and KGUY tonight.
Speed shear is forecast with 40 kt winds possible at 2,000 ft
AGL. The winds aloft are expected to mix down to the surface by
the late morning hours today, and strong, southwesterly winds
should persist until the evening hours. Though wind speeds
decrease marginally, breezy winds are expected to continue at all
sites even after sunset.

Rangel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Strong, southwesterly surface winds and low minimum relative
humidity will create critical fire weather conditions across the
northern Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle today.
Elevated conditions are expected for the remainder of the area,
barring the far southeast, due to winds being slightly weaker and
RH values being slightly higher. If the surface low remains
positioned over eastern Colorado, surface winds have the potential
to stay up overnight. The wind direction will shift slightly from
SW to S by tonight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>007.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55