Murfreesboro, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS64 KOHX 200926
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
426 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 416 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms
  early Thursday morning along and north of I-40. Damaging winds
  and heavy rain are the main concerns.

- A new marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms is out
  for Thursday afternoon and evening mainly south of I-40 and
  along the Cumberland Plateau.

- Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected
  this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

It appears that our overnight event has evolved into more of a
flooding threat than anything. A broad area of rain and storms
continues to spread across Middle Tennessee right along a surface
boundary that is providing plenty of lift. It`s safe to say that
the activity that we`re seeing at this unseemly hour is elevated
given the stable surface-based layer that has developed by now,
so the severe potential is greatly reduced, but several of these
cells are producing some very high rainfall rates, so we`re
monitoring for flooding more than anything. There are no plans to
expand the existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but we`re also not
quite ready to start clearing counties, either. We are expecting
storms to redevelop later this afternoon and evening, more or less
in the vicinity of the current surface boundary. In fact, the SPC
has drawn up a new day 1 marginal risk area that includes most of
Middle Tennessee south of I-40 and along the Cumberland Plateau.
Once again, there is a damaging wind threat and also the potential
for heavy rainfall, and perhaps even some small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Short range models have been a complete mess handling upstream
storms over MO and this has complicated our storm forecast for
tonight. Latest trends bring storms in later than our previous
forecast, perhaps as late as 2 or 3 AM CDT in our northwest. How
far south storms develop is also a bit uncertain, but even if the
main MCS tracks up in KY, it should still push some outflow storms
down into the Mid State. Our far southern counties may not see
any rain through the night.

A severe risk continues with the storms, mainly damaging wind gusts.
A brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out, but storms should be
outflow dominant with relatively stable boundary conditions here
compared to upstream areas. Local heavy rain will be a concern,
mainly in the northwest.

Pockets of showers and storms will linger into the morning as a
diffuse frontal zone approaches the area. Much of midday will be
rain-free. Then, after the atmosphere recovers, additional
scattered storms will form along the weak frontal zone as another
impulse crosses the area. This time the greatest severe storm and
heavy rain potential will be located across our southern and
Plateau counties. Local damaging wind gusts will be the concern
in the afternoon as capes climb above 2000 with dcape values over
1k.

Some additional shortwave energy will cross the area Thursday and
Friday with a low chance for more showers and storms, mainly south
and Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Slightly less humid air will move in with temperatures staying
around normal through the weekend and into early next week. Rain
chances look very low for the weekend. The upper high will push
eastward early next week which means temperatures and humidity
will start to creep up toward mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Conditions will deteriorate into this morning, with all sites
seeing -TSRA through this morning. Afterwards, winds will begin to
turn northerly, with ceilings rising. FG will become an issue
after 00z on the 21st, slowly settling in as winds go calm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  69  90  65 /  40  30  10   0
Clarksville    89  70  89  66 /  50  10   0   0
Crossville     86  66  84  63 /  50  30  30   0
Columbia       93  70  91  67 /  40  30   0   0
Cookeville     86  68  85  65 /  60  30  20   0
Jamestown      85  67  84  64 /  60  40  30   0
Lawrenceburg   92  69  89  66 /  40  30  10   0
Murfreesboro   93  70  91  67 /  40  40  10   0
Waverly        90  70  89  67 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Holley