Johnson City, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

988
FXUS64 KMRX 050535
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1235 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Winter Weather Advisories continue for light snow/sleet
accumulations in SW VA and NE TN mountains.

- Drying aloft should end measurable precip a little after
  sunrise, but drizzle may linger until noon.

- Dry Saturday, rain returns Sunday with a possible transition to
  snow in northern sections Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Overall, the previous forecast is handling the situation pretty
well, considering the mix p-types across the area. Sleet has been
more prevalent than models projected, but the placement of the
Advisory has been nicely aligned with the rain-sleet-snow transition
area based on reports we have been receiving. Radar is showing
precip coverage being more scattered in western sections as dry air
aloft builds in and cuts off the dendrite growth potential. Parts of
SW VA may continue to see several more hours of snow/sleet with some
additional light accumulations of ~1 inch in Wise and Russell
counties where surface temps have been near to below freezing,
possibly up to 2 in higher elevations like High Knob, so the Winter
Weather Advisory will continue. The Plateau counties will likely be
able to be canceled before the 12Z end time, and additional
accumulations there should not be very significant. Low level
moisture will remain in place through most of the day, with a slow,
gradual scouring from the top down, suggesting a light drizzle may
linger into the early afternoon.

A westerly flow aloft and surface high pressure keeps dry conditions
in place Saturday. Another disturbance brings a chance of rain back
into the forecast on Sunday. There could be some wintry precip
Sunday night as cold advection sets in, but confidence is low on the
depth of moisture available and the timing of the cold air arrival
with adequate moisture to produce any measurable snowfall.

Broad troughing over the eastern Conus will persist through the rest
of the forecast period, with some disturbances moving across our
area, but with limited moisture. A potential stronger shortwave may
bring better precip chances in the Thursday/Friday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Poor aviation conditions are expected with TYS and TRI still
remaining MVFR to VFR, despite persistent rain and brief wintry
mix. The expectation is for them to deteriorate to IFR like CHA
has and for this to continue into at least early Friday afternoon
as rain and snow diminish. Winds will remain light and somewhat
variable through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             49  37  51  35 /  10   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  45  37  49  32 /  20   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  35  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              41  36  45  29 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Anderson-
     Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-
     Scott TN-Southeast Carter-Sullivan-Unicoi.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-
     Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...BW