Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS64 KOHX 122333
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Patchy fog expected after midnight, especially east of I-65.

- Temperatures are forecast to remain well above seasonal norms.
  Heat index values in the 100s are expected every day through
  Thursday, mainly for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- We may start to see a gradual cool-down next weekend, along with
  our next rain chances, but there is a great deal of uncertainly
  regarding specific timing.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

With only a couple of showers remaining on radar, things have
quieted down for the evening. What`s left will be mostly clear
skies and we do expect to see some patchy fog across the whole
area starting around midnight. Focus will be mainly east of I-65,
especially those who saw rain today, but the regular foggy areas
west of I-65 will likely see some, too. Models don`t have it
widespread enough for advisory at this point, but the midnight
crew will be keeping an eye on it for those who get out early
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The 88D continues to show an area of light to moderate rain
impacting areas east of I-65, with a paucity of activity occurring
elsewhere. And the HRRR shows very little convection developing
in the afternoon air mass. So we may very well have seen most of
what we`re going to see with this weather system. The surface
boundary that has impacted our weather the past couple of days
appears to have washed out. Indeed, the only feature remaining
that could trigger additional activity is an upper trough that
will rotate across the region during the afternoon. After that,
the dry weather pattern will resume. In other words, if you don`t
get any rain today, it will likely be several more days before the
next opportunity. The atmosphere across Middle TEnnessee remains
very humid and unstable. The 12Z sounding from OHX shows near-
record precipitable water values with plenty of CAPE, and the mid-
level lapse rates are actually a little steeper than yesterday.
But the existing cloud cover is also keeping a lid on
temperatures. We will likely see additional sunshine during the
afternoon, but by then, the upper trough will have come through
and there will be too little lift left to convert all that
moisture and energy into anything more than isolated cells. As
far as temperatures, expect the unseasonal warmth to continue
through the weekend -- and throughout next week, as well -- as
the much-anticipated initial autumn cold front is agonizingly
slow to come our way this year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Rain chances next week are abysmal until we get to Friday and into
the weekend, and even that`s iffy. With no break in the summer
pattern, heat indices are likely to peak at least in the low 100s
many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau through Friday, and it
now appears that we may actually reach heat advisory criteria on
Tuesday, and perhaps again Wednesday. The NBM continues to hint
at a gradual cool-down beginning next weekend as a cold front
approaches Middle Tennessee. However, individual model solutions
diverge greatly when it comes to pinning down a time frame for
that fropa. Obviously, our next rain chances and the inevitable
drop in temperatures will depend largely on the timing of that
cold front. So plenty of uncertainly remains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As skies clear and winds decouple tonight, areas of fog and low
stratus will develop, especially across the Cumberland Plateau.
LIFR VIS is possible for CSV and SRB with conditions improving to
VFR by mid- to late-morning. Tomorrow, expect fair weather cu
light winds veering from SW to NNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    66  94  69  90 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     63  86  64  86 /  20   0  10  10
Columbia       67  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     66  89  67  88 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      65  86  66  85 /  10   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   66  93  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   68  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        68  94  70  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cahill