Huron, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

752
FXUS63 KFSD 210923
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
323 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence remains high in an extended period of warmer
  weather through the holiday travel week. Temperatures may
  approach or surpass record values mid to late next week,
  including Christmas Day.

- Dry weather is expected for the vast majority of the upcoming
  week. One exception will be this evening with a low (15-25%)
  chance for a light wintry mix toward Highway 14 and into
  portions of southwest Minnesota.

- Breezier days will bring elevated fire danger to snow-free
  areas, mainly across south central South Dakota and through
  the Missouri River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Main concern for today and through the week ahead will be
temperatures, especially for our current snow-free areas and
expanding with the expected additional loss of snow-pack as we
continue to see daytime temperatures climb above freezing. NBM
has been under-performing the past couple of days in areas with
little to no remaining snow and as such, have adjusted today`s
forecast toward warmer/drier/breezier conditions, similar to
early Spring/late Autumn when RAP/HRRR tend to perform a little
better. This leads to minimum humidity this afternoon of 30-40%
through the Missouri River Valley, with occasional wind gusts
over 30 mph in northeast Nebraska supporting locally Very High
grassland fire danger. Lighter winds toward south-central South
Dakota will hold the fire danger in the High category.

The gusty winds today precede a subtle mid-level wave which will
slide east across the Dakotas/Minnesota late this afternoon and
tonight. After a mostly sunny morning, expect increasing high to
mid level clouds with this feature, with continued uncertainty
whether the combined forcing from the wave and associated strong
warm advection will be able to overcome a very dry sub-cloud
layer below 8-10kft AGL. High-res models indicate at least a
low chance of very light precip (a hundredth or two at most)
reaching the ground toward the Highway 14 corridor and perhaps
as far south as I-90 in southwest Minnesota this evening to
shortly after midnight. With low confidence, will keep precip
chances below 25% for now. However, think it`s worth mentioning
over the NBM dry forecast as the wet bulb temperatures in area
soundings would support a threat of very light freezing precip.

Weak warm advection continues through the day Monday, with a
west-southwest low level flow supporting decent mixing of 925MB
temperatures which climb into the double digits across south
central South Dakota and down the Missouri River Valley. This
should lead to highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s through this
region, with readings tapering down to mid 40s along/northeast
of a Huron-Sioux Falls-Storm Lake line. Wind speeds are not as
strong as today, which should keep fire danger in check, mostly
in the Moderate category with locally High conditions.

Temperatures continue to see some fluctuations through the week,
slightly cooler Tuesday, then warming Wednesday/Thursday as an
upper ridge builds over the region. NAEFS ensemble seems to be
trending toward the ECMWF ensemble with the strength of the
upper ridge and associated warming in the low-mid levels, though
still some uncertainty regarding timing of an expected wave and
cold front which could limit potential warming by Christmas Day
in some locations. Both ensembles are showing a high (80-100%)
probability of temperatures topping 50 degrees through the
Missouri River Valley on Wednesday, with a very sharp gradient
to low (<20%) probabilities near and northeast of a Huron-Sioux
Falls-Storm Lake line. The gradient of this same probability
broadens by Christmas Day, indicative of greater uncertainty,
but also pointing to a slightly higher chance (20-40%) that 50
degree readings could expand into the I-90 corridor. Current
forecast highs still flirt with records for some areas west of
I-29 on Wednesday, and along/east of I-29 on Christmas Day.

While confidence is low due to diverging model solutions, the
aforementioned late week wave could bring light precipitation
to mainly portions of the forecast area by Christmas night or
Friday. Those with post-holiday travel plans should monitor the
forecast for updates throughout the week, as precipitation type
could be light snow or even a wintry mix.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions continue through the period. Light winds tonight
continue to shift southerly, increasing Sunday morning. Gusts
around 20 to 25 knots expected late Sunday morning through the
evening hours. Periods of LLWS possible south of I-90 Sunday
morning and again Sunday night, and have included mention at
KSUX.

Can`t entirely rule out some light mixed precipitation after
22.00z north of I-90; however, confidence and chances remain
below 30% so will continue to omit mention at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...SG