Wakefield-Peace Dale, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS61 KBOX 192343
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
743 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast during this
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy conditions Friday ahead of an approaching
  frontal system. Periods of rain develop Friday night as the
  front pushes through but we`re not expecting a washout at this
  time.

- Breezy and unsettled through early next week. Another round
  of showers Sunday night into Monday. Cooler, but still near
  normal, temperatures expected Monday through mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mild and breezy conditions Friday ahead of an
approaching frontal system. Periods of rain develop Friday night as
the front pushes through but we`re not expecting a washout at this
time.

Fairly strong frontal wave dives SE from Ontario later Friday
bringing a period of breezy and rainy conditions. Breezy weather
will be driven by a robust south westerly low level jet that
will strengthen to 45-55 knots by the evening. Otherwise, mostly
sunny conditions should prevail at least during the morning
hours Friday. Expect thickening mid and high level clouds Friday
afternoon as well as an increasing southwest breeze. Wind
speeds increase around 10-15 mph and gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range, with the higher end of that range more confined to Cape
Cod and the Islands which typically gusts pretty well with SW
flow (tempered by the cooler water temps). Should be a fairly
mild day with highs in the lower 50s in most areas and perhaps
as high as the upper 50s in the CT and Merrimack river valleys.
Cooler with max temps in the upper 40s over the south coast,
Cape and Islands due to persistent SW flow over the waters.

Increasing chance for POPs Friday evening and overnight as a broken
band of rain and showers moves from NW to SE. This will also lead to
decreasing SW wind gusts as the column stabilizes. As it does so, it
will act on a modest PWAT plume increasing to around 0.75-0.8
inches, which is really not that impressive. Kept PoPs at high
Likely to lower Categorical, although this doesn`t look to be a
significant precip-maker, with ensemble QPF probs still indicating
low (< 30%) probs of rainfall totals greater than 0.50". The NBM has
about a 50-50 chance of seeing greater than 0.20 inches of rain.
Given stable thermodynamics and only modest PWATs to work with, the
rainfall probs seem reasonable. May have to watch for a slowing
frontal zone though, as the orientation of the front becomes nearly
parallel to the 500 mb height contours, which could result in
lingering showers into early Saturday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy and unsettled through early next week.
Another round of showers Sunday night into Monday. Cooler, but still
near normal, temperatures expected Monday through mid-week.

We will still be dealing with a pesky front late Sunday into Monday
as it gets hung up by a low pressure moving over the Great Lakes.
This low pressure is anticipated to move just south of New England
late Sunday night into Monday, finally dragging this front away from
our region.

While there is a chance for some rainfall Sunday afternoon, we`re
thinking the majority of precipitation will be Sunday night. It`s
then a race between the precipitation leaving and colder air trying
to overspread southern New England. At this time, there does appear
to be a brief window where light snow is possible late Sunday night
into Monday morning. That said, this would be mainly for areas along
and north of Route 2 in MA, but could also impact the east slopes of
the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Given the brief duration of any
snow, little to no snow accumulation is expected.

High pressure over the central Appalachians Tuesday then takes over
our weather for a brief time, before moving offshore from the Mid
Atlantic coast Wednesday.

Still not certain about the impacts from another cold front some
time late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This front looks to be
moisture-starved, so thinking mainly clouds. The next chance for
rainfall could be Thursday as a warm front tries to pass us by.

Above normal temperatures Sunday trend to below normal Monday and
Tuesday. Looking like near normal temperatures should return for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update:

Tonight: High confidence.

OVC VFR/MVFR ceilings, bases in the 020-050 range. Conditions
should trend to SCT-OVC VFR bases after 03z, with optimism for
bases lifting further or clearing entirely 07-10z. S winds 5-10
kt, though shifting to SW under 10 kt around 03-05z.

Friday: High confidence.

VFR, though ceilings trend toward an OVC midlevel deck with some
lower-end VFR underneath by 20-23z. Winds start off SW under 10
kt, then back to S (SE for BOS) around 10 kt by ~15-17z, then
shift to SSW/SW around 21-23z and increasing to 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt, and around 15-18 kt with gusts 25-30 kt for the
Cape airports. Left LLWS mention in the TAF for the late
afternoon period but surface gusts could be enough to mitigate
the risk; if gusts are slow to develop, then LLWS risk
increases. Finally, included VCSH mention in most airports
during the 20-23z timeframe, but steadier rain not likely to
arrive any sooner than 23z in NW MA.

Friday Night: Moderate confidence.

Ceilings deteriorate to MVFR-IFR with 5-6SM RA around 23-03z NW
to SE. SW gusts easing some as rain moves in. Cold front should
clear a BED- ORH- BDL line by ~05z with improving ceilings and
drier conditions on WSW winds; the front could be slower to
clear into the waters leading to a longer duration of MVFR-IFR
ceilings and rain elsewhere.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. OVC VFR ceilings tonight
with SW winds. Possible period of SE winds ~15-17z Fri before
turning SW 15kt, gusts 25 kt. Ceilings lower to MVFR-IFR in 5 SM
rain after 00z Sat.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. MVFR/VFR ceilings trend
SCT-BKN VFR by 03z Fri. Rain arrives around 23-00z Sat bringing
MVFR/IFR ceilings.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up
to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Winds and seas will remain below marine headline thresholds
through tonight. SE winds today around 10-15 kt to shift to S
and then SW tonight into early Friday. Seas 4 ft or less on all
waters.

SCA issued for the outer waters from 00z Sat thru 00z Sun. SCA
in effect from 00z-09z Sat for Buzzards, Nantucket, and Cape Cod
Bays. While a few gale-force gusts are possible, shallow mixing
depth over the cooler marine boundary layer likely results in
gusts in the 25-30 kt range. Areas of rain and showers likely
result in areas of reduced visibility.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain likely.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/FT
AVIATION...Loconto/Mensch/FT
MARINE...Mensch/FT