Lower Paxton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS61 KCTP 041715
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
115 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints by a few Deg F below NBM with deep vertical
  mixing up to around 7 kft AGL and significant drying aloft
  this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday, ahead of a
system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday,
ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

Sfc high pressure has drifted east of the Carolina Coast and the
moderately tight pressure gradient across the Mid Atlantic
Region and Lower Great Lakes will support a gusty southwesterly
breeze. Even with the advection of slightly higher dewpoints
into the Commonwealth the significant rise in temps will equate
to similar or just slightly higher min RHs today relative to
Sunday.

High temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with
the crest of this current warmup occurring Tuesday as a
moderately gusty southwesterly flow is sustained  out ahead of
the next, slow- moving cold front, and temps start out the day
Tuesday some 10-15 deg F higher than this morning thanks to the
breeze and more cloud cover.

In fact, we could see some highly infrequent, nocturnal
convection across the NW Mtns and perhaps even as far south as
RT 211 in the Laurel Highlands as the nose of a strengthening
Westerly LLJ advects some modest MU CAPE of over 500 J/KG
across approximately the SW half of PA tonight/early Tuesday.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80
degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will
impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday,
especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers
and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of
a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late
in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns
developing. Medium range guidance indicates showers mixing with
or falling as wet snow across the Northern Mountains and Laurel
Highlands late Wed night through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day with
scattered clouds between 5000 and 7000 feet. Southwesterly wind
gusts of 20 to 30 knots will continue into the early evening,
before tapering off after sunset.

A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet moving in tonight will bring LLWS
concerns to much of Central PA. For now, we have kept wind shear
out of the TAFs at IPT, MDT, and LNS, with the strongest part of
the jet expected to remain west of those sites. The LLJ will
also provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop over western PA after 00Z. All airfields except MDT
and LNS have at least a 30 percent chance of seeing rain from
these showers and storms tonight. Widespread restrictions appear
unlikely, though brief visibility drops will be possible in any
thunderstorms.

Showers decrease in coverage after sunrise on Tuesday, giving
way to mainly dry conditions for the rest of the morning. MVFR
ceilings may develop at BFD, though the rest of Central PA
should remain VFR. Expect southwesterly wind gusts increase to
20 to 25 knots by 15Z.

Outlook...

Tue PM...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

Fri-Sat...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across
central Pennsylvania for May 3rd:

Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the
previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957.

Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties
the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Beaty/Lambrech