Lower Makefield, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS61 KPHI 020753
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
253 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic coastal waters were extended
to 1 AM Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Another frigid morning expected with wind chills below zero for
most of the area.

2. Widespread minor coastal flooding expected for much of the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware with the Monday morning
high tide.

3...Below normal temperatures will continue this week with many
areas remaining below freezing. Dangerously cold wind chills return
for the weekend.

4. A couple opportunities for light snow to occur across the region
this week. The first coming Tuesday night and the second coming on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Another frigid morning expected with wind chills
below zero for most of the area.

Lows this morning will be between 5 and 15, combined with a steady
breeze (or even outright gusty conditions in the Poconos) will
result in wind chills below zero for most of the region. As a
result, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for central and
most of southern NJ, northern Delmarva, and SE PA including
Philadelphia, valid through 10 AM Monday morning.

North Jersey and the Lehigh Valley were left out as their criteria
for cold weather headlines are lower than what is forecast. For
areas in southeast NJ and lower Delmarva that were left out, wind
chills should stay just above 0. Outside of SE NJ and lower
Delmarva, wind chills region-wide will hover between 0 and 5 below
zero. In the Poconos, wind chills as low as 15 below zero are
expected.

Overall, this looks like it will be the last morning for the Cold
Weather Advisory for at least a few days. Temperatures on Monday
climb into the upper 20s/low 30s but unlikely any locations gets
above freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread minor coastal flooding expected for much
of the Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware with the Monday
morning high tide.

Another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected to
occur with the Monday morning high tide. Tidal levels remain higher
across multiple observing sites due to higher astronomical tides
with the full moon this evening, as well as continued swells from
the offshore system. As a result, with the higher of the high tides,
water levels will once again increase and result in widespread minor
coastal flooding for coastal areas from Ocean County southward along
the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, as well as the coasts of Sussex
County, Delaware. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for 7 AM -
 1 PM Monday as a result. Spotty minor flooding may occur along the
coasts of Monmouth and Middlesex County as well as the Delaware Bay
and along all the aforementioned coasts with the high tide tonight.
Impacts of tidal flooding will continue to be complicated by ice
that is already developing along the back bays and could be pushed
onshore during high tide, as well as flood waters potentially
freezing on roadways.

The threat for coastal flooding will decrease following Monday
morning`s high tide as we move away from the full moon and the
offshore coastal low continues to track further away. Tidal flooding
is not expected along the coasts of the tidal Delaware River, or the
Chesapeake Bay in the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Below normal temperatures will continue this week
with many areas remaining below freezing. Dangerously cold wind
chills return for the weekend.

High pressure will be situated off the coast of the Southeast US on
Tuesday, where return flow will allow for somewhat warmer
(relatively speaking) temperatures. Regardless, temperatures this
week will remain below normal for the entire week ahead. Highs on
Tuesday for the Delaware Valley, including Philadelphia, southern
New Jersey, and Delmarva will top off in the mid to upper 30s with
highs near 40 in southern Delaware. North of that area, for the
southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley, highs
will mostly be in the upper 20s to low 30s with some spots possibly
touching the freezing mark depending on the amount of sunshine.
Temperatures for the rest of the work week will then remain mostly
below freezing where highs will generally be in the low 20s to low
30s. Another Arctic front arrives by Friday night and highs next
weekend look to be in the teens and 20s once again.

In terms of low temperatures, despite highs mostly in the 30s or so
this week, lows will be in the single digits and teens with the
exception of Tuesday night. By next weekend, lows will range from
the single digits to as low as 5 below zero by next weekend. Wind
chills will once again return to dangerously cold levels over the
weekend, where another round of cold weather headlines may be
warranted towards the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A couple opportunities for light snow to occur
across the region this week. The first coming Tuesday night and the
second coming on Friday.

Surface high pressure remains over the Southeast coast on Tuesday
before moving out into the western Atlantic by Tuesday night. A
broad upper trough digs down into the Southern Plains and into the
Gulf Coast states while a closed mid-level low tracks across Ontario
and Quebec. Associated strong shortwave energy passes across the
Northeast as a weak surface low originating from the Midwest
approaches the Mid-Atlantic late Tuesday. These features then pass
through the area overnight on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This
system is quite weak in nature and moisture starved, but with strong
shortwave energy and sufficient cold air in place, anticipate an area
of light snow to overspread the area overnight. In terms of snowfall
amounts, expecting a coating to an inch of snow in most places,
especially south of I-78. Localized amounts over an inch possible,
with the greatest chances across northern Delaware and southern New
Jersey. For areas north of I-78, perhaps some flurries but no
accumulations expected. Overall, minimal impacts are expected with
snow ending by Wednesday morning.

The next chance for snow arrives on Friday and possibly into Friday
night as a strong clipper system ahead of an Arctic front passes
through the region. Too early for any specifics on this system, but
a period of light snow and/or snow squalls appear to be on the
table.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Early this morning (through 12Z)...VFR. Northwest winds 10-20 knots
with gusts to 25 knots, then some diminishing overnight. Moderate
confidence.

Monday...VFR. Northwest to west-northwest winds 10-15 knots, with
some gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday night...VFR. Winds becoming light and variable. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR with increasing clouds in the afternoon. No
significant weather expected.

Tuesday night...Prevailing VFR with sub-VFR conditions possible.
Periods of light snow expected overnight.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR. A chance of light snow on Friday,
otherwise, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory goes through Noon Monday on Delaware Bay and
through 1 AM Tuesday for the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic
coastal waters. Elevated seas will gradually subside through Monday
given the offshore wind component. Light freezing spray possible
through Monday afternoon.

Regarding the river ice threat...Ice has formed across area bay
waters and inland estuaries. This includes, but is not limited to
the Delaware estuary. On rivers, the ice has grown in thickness
enough to start causing restrictions in flow. An example of this can
be seen at the Trenton River gauge. Per satellite imagery, the
Delaware River is pretty much ice covered from just south of Trenton
upstream to about Washington Crossing.

The most common ways river ice can break up is either through a
thermal or mechanical means. We would like to see temperatures rise
into the 40s for a few days, but that`s not expected this week into
the weekend. Rainfall, producing river rises, can also break up ice.
But again, that`s not in the forecast either this coming week.

As a result, we expect the ice we`re seeing to expand before it
contracts. Even though there may be a pause in the growth during the
daylight hours this coming week, temperatures at night will support
expansion.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...No marine headlines expected as winds
mainly remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Periods of
light snow possible on Tuesday night, otherwise fair weather.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ054-
     055-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NJZ009-
     010-012>022-026-027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for NJZ020-022>027.
DE...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for DEZ001-
     002.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this
     afternoon for DEZ003-004.
MD...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ012.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/DeSilva/Hoeflich/MJL
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL
MARINE...DeSilva/MJL