Wilsonville, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

636
FXUS66 KPQR 020550
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
950 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry and mild on Monday, aside from periods
of light rain over southwest WA and far northwest OR. High
confidence for a prolonged stretch of dry weather and above
normal temperatures from Tuesday through at least Friday as a
strong upper-level ridge builds overhead. Uncertainty remains
regarding the eventual breakdown of this ridge and the timing of
the next precipitation chance, however most guidance suggests
rain will likely return by late Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday night...Radar and surface
weather observations from Sunday evening depict isolated rain
showers occurring over northwest Oregon and western Washington
behind a Pacific frontal boundary that moved inland earlier
Sunday morning and progressed east of the Cascade crest in the
late morning/early afternoon. Hi-res guidance and forecast
soundings continue to suggest isolated light showers linger in
the Cascades and Coast Range through midnight. Light rain will
then return to southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon
Monday morning as a warm front lifts northward. There is a
80-95% chance locations to the south of a line extending from
Lincoln City to Portland will stay dry with high temperatures in
the mid 50s to 60 degrees.

Beyond Monday, models and their ensembles continue to show
excellent agreement for upper level ridging over the Pacific
Northwest, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather with
above normal temperatures and light winds Tuesday through at
least Friday. One exception in regards to winds will be in the
western Columbia River Gorge and far eastern Portland/Vancouver
metro where easterly winds will become quite gusty at times,
strongest on Wednesday and Thursday when models suggest the
surface pressure gradient from Troutdale to the Dalles will most
likely peak somewhere between -6 to
-8 mb according to the ENS ensemble. Given the stable conditions
in lower levels of the atmosphere during that time, expect max
wind gusts up to 80 mph at Crown Point, up to 60-65 mph at Corbett,
and up to 40-45 mph at Troutdale. Note these wind speeds assume the
pressure gradient will peak near -8 mb, which means observed winds
will wind up being lower if the gradient winds up weaker than that.
The NBM v5.0 seems to reflect this well and shows winds quite a bit
stronger than the NBM v4.3, so this was utilized to produce the wind
forecast Tuesday through Thursday night. Some tree damage and power
outages will be possible if the higher gusts to materialize, however
impacts shouldn`t be overly significant for this time of year.

Note with much lighter winds away from the Columbia River Gorge,
air stagnation will be a concern, especially in the central
and southern Willamette Valley where winds will likely be calm
and mixing heights will be low for 3-4 consecutive days. This
may result in degraded air quality over time. It`s also worth
mentioning that uncertainty regarding the sky cover and
temperature forecast is highest in the central and southern
valley, as air stagnation patterns this time of year tend to
favor stubborn low stratus and/or fog for these inland valley
locations, which keeps temperatures quite a bit cooler compared
to the coast, Coast Range and Cascades where warmer air aloft is
tapped into along with sunshine. However, it appears sunshine
is possible for much of the day even in the central and southern
valley by late in the week.

The forecast becomes more uncertain for all locations on
Saturday, as some model guidance suggests dry weather will
continue while other guidance suggests precipitation will return
to the area. There is currently a 20-40% chance rain will
return as early as Saturday, and a 50-80% chance rain will
return as early as late Saturday night. -23

&&

.AVIATION...Mixed flying conditions expected through the
overnight period as clearing skies allow for areas of fog/mist
to develop inland. Along the coast, VFR vis/cigs with light
southeast winds through much of tonight. Inland, chances are
highest (50-70%) for IFR vis within fog along the Willamette
Valley, especially west of I-5 from KSLE north to KHIO. Chances
are lower at Portland- area terminals, but there is still a
20-30% likelihood of restricted vis after 09z Mon.

A frontal system will largely bypass the region as it moves into
western Washington after 12-15z Mon, however the northern Oregon
coast including KAST will be most likely to see MVFR vis/cigs
within steady rain through much of the morning. Terminals in the
northern Willamette Valley and Portland area are less likely to
see impacts, with a 30-40% chance of MVFR vis/cigs from
generally 15-21z Mon. To the south of KUAO/KMMV, rain showers
are unlikely (10-25% chance).South to southeast winds of 5-10 kt
will begin to shift out of the north late in the period, after
00-03z Tue.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flying conditions favored throughout
the period. Chances for vis restrictions within fog overnight
are around 20-25%, with areas of fog/low cloud already observed
downstream on the Columbia River near KSPB/KKLS. Persistent
southeast flow around 5 kt will aid in limiting fog chances.
Rain will most likely remain north of the Portland area from
15-21z Mon, with a 30-40% chance of light rain resulting in MVFR
vis/cigs through Monday morning. -36

&&

.MARINE...Southerly wind gusts have decreased below 20 kts this
afternoon, but another weak front will graze the waters tonight
into Monday, bringing increased south winds with gusts 20-25
kts. Winds will decrease below 20 kts again by late Monday
afternoon, remaining calmer through the rest of the week. Expect
wave heights of 10-13 feet at 11-13 seconds, through Monday
evening, with the period increasing to 14-16 seconds late
tonight into Monday morning. Due to a combination of winds and
seas, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 1 AM PST on
Tuesday. High pressure builds over the waters Tuesday with
southerly winds less than 15-20 kts and seas less than 10 ft. By
Wednesday, an increasing westerly swell is forecast to push
into the waters, increasing seas to around 10-12 feet around
12-16 seconds through the end of the week. -12/03

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A long period westerly swell will result in a
high threat for sneaker waves persisting through Monday
afternoon. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach
than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them
into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or
drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water,
especially those who will be razor clamming this week. -42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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