Medford, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS66 KMFR 200538
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1038 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z TAFs...Inland, VFR will prevail tonight
through Thursday evening. While patchy smoke is possible tonight
into Thursday from local wildfires, smoke impacts should be
fairly isolated. The main aviation impact will be the marine layer
along the coast. Low clouds and fog have returned to areas
from Cape Blanco northward, including North Bend, and also from
near Gold Beach southward. These may completely fill in (except
perhaps right near Port Orford) as winds relax overnight into
Thursday morning. This will bring IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibilities
and even patchy drizzle. Most areas should then clear to VFR
Thursday afternoon, but some lower conditions could linger at the
beaches (and perhaps even North Bend). -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Wednesday, August 19, 2026...Conditions
are expected to improve tonight with relatively lighter winds and
lower seas Thursday into Saturday. A thermal trough will
redevelop along the coast Sunday bringing a return of strong north
winds and steep seas for areas mainly south of Cape Blanco.
-Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 520 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs...Inland, VFR will prevail tonight
through Thursday evening. Wildfire smoke is emanating from the
Wright`s Spring fire and the Mile Post 18 fire. Smoke impacts
though should be fairly localized to their immediate vicinity.
The main aviation impact will be the marine layer along the
coast. Expect low clouds and fog to return to areas north of Cape
Blanco, including North Bend in the next hour or so and also
near/south of Gold Beach overnight into Thursday morning. This
will bring a mix of IFR/LIFR along with patchy drizzle through
Thursday morning. Most areas clear to VFR Thursday afternoon, but
some lower conditions could linger at the beaches. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 201 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather is expected for inland areas through Thursday with
  above normal warmth and fairly typical afternoon breezes.

* Nightly marine pushes will bring cooler air and stratus to the
  coast, and also a chance of drizzle.

* Offshore low pressure brings heightened fire weather concerns
  Friday and Saturday with gusty winds and at least a slight chance
  of thunderstorms.

* Breezy winds continue Saturday with a slight cool down.

* Typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early
  next week.

DISCUSSION...Typical summer weather is expected for much of the
forecast period. Southwesterly flow will persist over the region as
the area remains wedged between low pressure over the eastern
Pacific and high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The pattern
amplifies today into Thursday as low pressure offshore nudges
eastward and the flow will turn a bit more southerly Thursday and
Friday. As the pattern amplifies, temperatures will trend warmer
today and Thursday, with afternoon highs peaking around 5-10 degrees
above normal for inland locations. Persistent onshore flow will
maintain cooler temperatures along the coast, along with nightly
intrusions of the marine layer. Despite the increase in
temperatures, overall HeatRisk remains minor with some areas of
moderate. These temperatures (mid to upper 90s west side
valleys/triple digits in the lower Klamath river valley/upper 80s-
low 90s for East side and Umpqua Basin) are fairly typical for this
time of year, so just be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks if working during the peak of the heat.

Low pressure offshore will move northeastward into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday through the weekend, and this will bring a
general cooling trend Friday into Saturday. We`ll also see an
increase in gusty winds, cloud cover and thunderstorm chances. There
will be an increase in afternoon winds on Thursday, but winds are
expected to peak on Friday with gusty south to southwest winds
across NorCal and from the Cascades eastward and northwest winds in
the West Side Valleys. This will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns if daytime RHs are low enough, and more details can be
found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. Guidance has trended
slower with the progression of this trough, so we expect another day
of stronger winds to continue into Saturday, focused along and east
of the Warner mountains. Aside from cooler temperatures and gusty
winds, thunderstorms will be possible with this system. Current
guidance still maintains the best chances (isolated/15-25%) will be
along the Cascades from Crater Lake northward and across northern
Klamath and Lake Counties. There`s also lesser chances (5-10%)
farther south into western Siskiyou County, but guidance favors the
northern areas. The trough just isn`t in a favorable position to
bring a more widespread thunderstorm threat. It`s too far offshore
when it`s south enough, then to far north when it`s near enough.
That`s not to say thunderstorms aren`t likely, just not as concerned
about a widespread threat. The other aspect we`re monitoring for is
the potential for nocturnal lightning. Still think this is a low
concern, but the most favorable time period would be Thursday night
into Friday morning and over portions of western Siskiyou. While the
moisture is there, the forcing and instability are weak, so at this
time, it looks like about a 5% chance of an isolated thunderstorm
Thursday night. Friday night into Saturday, drier air will have
moved into the region, and the threat will have shifted farther
north.

Thunderstorms drop out of the forecast on Saturday as the trough
finally moves inland near Seattle on Saturday afternoon and drier
air moves into the region. Southwest flow persists Sunday into early
next week with persistent ridging to the southeast and persistent
troughing off the BC coast. Additional shortwaves are likely to pass
through the region in this southwest flow, but there are differences
on strength and timing. Overall, this will maintain seasonable
conditions with temperatures near to slightly above normal (no
heatwaves expected) and periods of enhanced afternoon winds. /BR-y

AVIATION...19/18Z TAFs...Aside from lingering stratus south of Gold
Beach resulting in LIFR conditions along the immediate the coast,
VFR conditions prevail across the region and will do so through the
TAF period for most locations. Marine stratus is likely to linger
through much of the TAF period for the immediate coast south of Gold
Beach, though there could be a brief period VFR conditions later
this afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions in marine stratus will return to
areas north of Cape Blanco this evening once gusty north winds ease
around sunset, then persist well into Thursday morning. VFR
conditions will prevail for all other areas. /BR-y

MARINE...Updated 300 PM PDT Wednesday, August 19, 2026...Gusty
north winds and steep seas are expected south of Cape Blanco through
this evening. Conditions are expected to improve Thursday and
Friday. A thermal trough will redevelop along the coast around
Sunday bringing a return of strong north winds and steep seas. Once
again, strongest winds and highest seas are most likely south of
Cape Blanco.

-Smith

FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, August 19, 2026...Fire
weather concerns will remain fairly standard for this time of year
today. Expect typical summer conditions with dry weather across the
area through Thursday and nightly marine pushes along the coast.
Temperatures will trend upward through Thursday, resulting in a
downward trend in afternoon RHs. Overall, recoveries will remain in
the moderate to good range, though poor to moderate recoveries are
expected along and east of the Warners as well as the Salmon
Mountains in western Siskiyou County through Friday morning.

Thursday will be a transition day into a pattern that brings some
heightened fire weather concerns. A stronger upper level trough,
currently spinning out beyond 140 W, will gradually move eastward
this week, moving inside of 130 W by Thursday. This will start a
period of increased winds that will likely persist through Saturday
as this low pressure gradually moves inland into the PacNW through
the weekend.

Guidance has slowed the progression of this trough, but also come
into better agreement with timing. We still expect an increase in
afternoon winds on Thursday with low RHs, but confidence has
increased on the strength of the winds not quite reaching critical
thresholds on Thursday. Isolated areas of critical conditions are
certainly possible on Thursday, but widespread critical conditions
aren`t expected until Friday. The Shasta Valley could see some
critical winds/RH overlap on Thursday, but we don`t think it will
quite meet the duration requirement. Gusts 15 to 25 mph will be
common across the region, with daytime RHs ranging from the low to
upper teens and this will result in elevated fire weather conditions
on Thursday. Confidence is higher for winds to peak on Friday (gusts
25-35 mph), but daytime humidities will also trend somewhat higher.
Despite the uptick in humidities, it`s close enough with the higher
confidence more widespread higher winds on Friday to warrant a Fire
Weather Watch for Friday. This includes Fire Weather Zones (FWZs)
281, 284, 285 and 624. Decided to leave out FWZ 625 at this time as
confidence is not high enough for sustained winds to reach criteria
on Friday.

In addition to winds/RH concerns for Friday, mid-level moisture
increases Thursday and Friday, raising the concern for thunderstorms
potential. Current guidance maintains that the best chance for storm
development would be along the Cascades from Crater Lake northward
and across northern Klamath/Lake Counties. With the approach of the
trough Thursday night into Friday, we`re monitoring the potential
for any nocturnal convection, but current guidance maintains around
a 5% chance of that for now, primarily for western Siskiyou County.

Despite the slower progression of the trough, confidence is fairly
good that the thunderstorm threat will shift north of the area by
Saturday. What changes, however, is the continuation of stronger
southwest winds over portions of the East Side/Modoc. While it`s
likely to be another breezy day, most areas should see weaker winds
on Saturday compared to Friday. The strongest winds look to linger
along the Warner Mountains and eastward on Saturday, and this is
when FWZ 625 stands the best chance of reaching that sustained wind
criteria for critical conditions. Additionally, daytime RHs trend
downward compared to Friday, so we`ll be evaluating the need for
additional watches for Saturday.

More typical summer conditions return Sunday and persist into early
next week. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for CAZ281-284-285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

MAS