Ardmore, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS64 KOUN 161105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

 - Patchy to areas of dense fog with a short window for freezing
   fog will be possible by mid-morning across western into
   portions of northern Oklahoma. Fog will also be possible again
   on Wednesday morning.

 - A dry forecast with warmer than average temperatures each day.

 - Monitoring fire weather potential for Thursday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A potential for dense fog with a short window for freezing fog this
morning and MaxT`s this afternoon will be the main issues in the
near term for today.

Moisture advection within our warmer air mass has been
strongest/moistest across our western CWA with mid to upper 30s
surface dewpoints currently as per the Oklahoma Mesonet.  Not
convinced the weak surface winds will advect any more moisture
tonight but diurnal cooling within the moister surface air may be
adequate for the development of fog by mid-morning across much of
our west.  The latest HREF as well as the previous two runs remain
consistent with at least patchy fog developing across western into
northern Oklahoma staying north of the Red River while latest HRRR
runs also in general agreement.  The last 2 DESI ensemble runs are
also consistent with up to a 60% probability for dense fog with
visibilities below 1/4 mile across southwest Oklahoma between 6-9 AM
which would include the I-40 corridor between Weatherford & Elk
City.  The only spoiler would be the broken to overcast mid to high
cloud cover coming through a dirty upper ridge which could inhibit
cooling to the dewpoint as much of this cloudiness may not begin
scattering until the afternoon hours.  As a result will have fog in
the forecast grids for mid-morning although not enough confidence to
early issue any advisories.  However, there is a potential for a
Dense Fog Advisory being issued across our western CWA by mid-
morning.  Should any fog develop it should start gradually burning
off as the morning progresses.

The mid-to high cloud cover should it linger and how long into the
afternoon hours may also impact how much solar heating will impact
our afternoon temperatures.  However confidence is high enough with
the NBM taking this into account with this afternoons MaxT as warm
advection will start up with increasing south winds and temperatures
rising to near 60 degrees across much of our area.  Far southwest
Oklahoma into western north Texas may have the most solar heating
and warmer with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A weak surface low under a trough moves in Tuesday night with winds
going light & variable.  Another round of patchy to dense fog may
also develop early to mid-morning Wednesday across much of
westcentral into portions of central Oklahoma.  The upper trough
will push a weak cold front across our area during the latter half
of Wednesday morning perhaps stalling near the I-40 corridor with a
near repeater of high temperatures in the afternoon.   Wednesday
night our next large scale system comes through although another dry
system with the upper low tracking across the U.S. Northern Plains
through Upper Midwest Regions.  This system will push a fairly
robust cold front across our area early Thursday morning with gusty
north winds.  The NBM default was a bit weak with the post-frontal
winds so increased them a little bit using the NBM 90th Percentile
winds.  Thursday will be a bit windy behind the front but not seeing
any strong cooling behind this mild air mass which will be
California Pacific-based in our area. Although up to a 5 degrees
cooldown, temperatures on Thursday afternoon still expected to be
well above normal.  The drier air behind Thursdays cold front and
gusty north winds will increase the fire danger risk across all of
western Oklahoma into adjacent western north Texas on Thursday
afternoon. High surface pressure building in Thursday night which
will be fairly colder in comparison to the previous night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Weak troughing from Thursdays system will be moving out with near
zonal milder Pacific-based upper flow.  A return of south winds on
Friday will advect warmer air with mild yet very unseasonably warm
air with highs in the 70s possible on Saturday.  Southwest Oklahoma
may come close to breaking or tying a record.  Another system
training along the Canadian/U.S. borders will push another dry cold
front through our area on Saturday although models inconsistent with
the timing with a faster GFS solution aggressively pushing it
through during the afternoon to the evening hours with the slower
ECMWF solution.  Very dry and unseasonably warm air could increase
the fire danger risk across western north Texas on Saturday
afternoon with gusty southwest pre-frontal winds. With the surface
high over the Upper Midwest Region, there could be a moderate cooler
air mass coming in Saturday night with MinTs down to the 30s across
much of our area and perhaps a 10 degree cooldown for Sunday
afternoon yet still climatically warmer than average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Patchy areas of fog are beginning to develop across western
Oklahoma early this morning. While the overall spatial coverage is
expected to remain rather limited, will include TEMPO mentions of
reduced vis through the mid-morning at KWWR & KCSM.

Otherwise, slowly clearing mid/high clouds and an occasionally
gusty southwest wind are expected during the daytime on Tuesday.
An additional, likely more widespread, bout of early morning fog
(and stratus) is anticipated on Wednesday morning across portions
of central and southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  36  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         63  32  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  39  62  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           62  29  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  32  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         58  43  64  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09