Grand Forks AFB, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS63 KFGF 162108
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
308 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gusting up to 60 mph in portions of eastern North Dakota
  through early evening.

- A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night
  through Thursday. There is a high chance of blizzard
  conditions in the northern half of the Red River Valley and
  northeastern North Dakota and a medium chance for blizzard
  conditions in southeastern North Dakota and southern Red River
  Valley. The probability of blizzard conditions will be driven
  by coverage of falling snow.

- High winds are expected to develop regardless of snowfall.
  Gusts as high as 70 mph are possible from Wednesday night
  through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Strong shortwave moving into Ontario has helped bring the
surface trough axis and cold front into the CWA this afternoon.
This shortwave will move quickly off to the east tonight, with
an even stronger system digging into southern Saskatchewan and
eastern MT. South winds will return by daybreak Wednesday and
continue for much of the day as the surface low moves into the
western Plains. The upper low will be coming into the Dakotas
Wednesday night, with the surface low somewhere along the
international border. While there is still a lot of variation
with the exact track of the low and heaviest snow band, there is
good agreement with ensemble members with a tight pressure
gradient and very strong cold air advection on the backside of
the system. That cold air advection will continue into Thursday,
and then another shortwave comes across southern Canada for
Friday. A bit of a break over the weekend with northwesterly
flow before flow becomes more zonal for early next week. Could
see a few weak shortwaves moving through during that time period
bringing some light precip and pushing cold fronts through, but
timing hard to nail down at this point.

...High winds this afternoon and evening...

With temperatures this afternoon ahead of the cold front
overperforming and rising into the 40s and even pushing 50 in
some spots, there has been a bit more mixing of the boundary
layer than expected. Then, when the cold front pushes through,
gusts of up to 60 mph are being able to be mixed down from
around 850mb. Winds at Jamestown gusted up to 62 mph, and
probabilities of over 55 mph in much of eastern ND are up to 30
to 60 percent. Probs of over 60 mph are even 30 percent in some
places. Therefore, went ahead and put out a high wind warning
for portions of the Red River Valley and western parts of the
Devils Lake and Sheyenne Basins. Winds should start to come
down quickly this evening as the surface low moves east and the
pressure gradient relaxes.

...Still some spread in how the ensembles are handling the
surface low Wednesday night into Thursday. With warm
temperatures expected to return and even some rain and freezing
rain possible on the backside of the system, most of the current
snow will not be blowable. Will have to depend on falling snow,
and ensemble spread from the 10th to 90th percentiles range as
high as 1 to 8 inches in our northeastern counties. Even with
lower amounts, 1 to 2 inches of new snow should be enough to
blow around and cause widespread whiteout conditions. Confidence
in blizzard conditions is highest near the Canadian border,
decreasing further south towards the Highway 200 corridor. South
of Highway 200, there will be at least a little bit of snow late
Wednesday night and Thursday, but confidence is lower in a long
period of widespread whiteout conditions. Still high enough to
include all our eastern ND and MN Red River Valley counties in a
winter storm watch from midnight to Thursday evening.

...Winds late Wednesday night into Thursday...

With an even stronger system and a short distance between the
surface high over Canada and low along the international border,
the pressure gradient and cold air advection could even
outperform today`s winds. Probability of over 60 mph gusts are
up around 60 percent for portions of the Red River Valley, and
there are even some 20 percent chances of getting to 70 mph.
ECMWF EFI has very strong signal for high winds If for some
reason the snow is further north than we are expecting, will
need a high wind warning for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently VFR with some cirrus overhead, with strong west winds
starting to gust to 30 kts in some spots and an even stronger
low level jet overhead creating some low level wind shear. Will
see a shift to a more northwesterly direction with gusts up
above 40 kts in some locations. The shift to the northwest will
also bring in some MVFR ceilings to the region, starting in the
KDVL area and spreading east throughout the evening. The MVFR
ceilings should improve by tomorrow morning, with decreasing
winds overnight eventually becoming light and variable. Winds
pick up again out of the south by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-014-024.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
     052>054.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for NDZ007-008-
     015-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>029.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for MNZ001>009-013>016-029.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ030>032.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR