Bismarck, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

102
FXUS63 KBIS 191730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week
  over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over
  western and southern locations.

- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances
  returning Saturday/Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Generally clear conditions are found across the forecast area
this afternoon. Patchy fog from earlier this morning has all be
lifted by this time. Winds have started to pick up across the
west as a moderately strong mid level jet has started to move
over. As we start to fully mix out later this afternoon, gusty
winds sustained up to 25 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH are
anticipated this afternoon. Overall, the forecast remains on
track at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 905 AM CDT Thu Mar 19
2026

Pockets of patchy fog linger over portions of northwestern and
central North Dakota, though should begin to lift as we head
into the late morning. Otherwise, mainly clear and dry
conditions are expected through the day today. Regarding winds,
a moderately strong mid level jet expected over western North
Dakota this afternoon, with HREF values around 35 to 40kts up to
750mb. An interrogation of BUFKIT model soundings later this
morning and afternoon reveals strong low to mid level lapse
rates (8.5 to 9 degC/KM) across western and much of central
North Dakota during this time, allowing us to be almost fully
mixed out up to the 75mb level. Thus have opted to slightly
increase winds for today, with sustained speeds peaking around
20 to 25 MPH and gusting up to 35 to 40 MPH this afternoon
across the west. Have also tweaked the sky grids to account for
the latest upstream satellite and model trends with this update.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast remains in good shape with some patches of fog noted on
observations and satellite over central North Dakota into the
James River Valley. Expect these to diminish later this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Current surface analysis places low to the lee of the Canadian
Rockies with trough dipping into the Northern Plains. Upper
level analysis places broad high over the desert southwest,
resulting in broad ridging throughout the western CONUS. Over
our area, low level moisture along and ahead of the
aforementioned trough is resulting in some patchy fog, while
temperatures remain quite mild.

For today, very warm temperatures are expected over most of the
area thanks to broad thermal ridge over the western CONUS and
broad downslope flow. Multiple temperature records are in
jeopardy as highs climb into the 60s and 70s over much of our
area, about 25 to 30 degrees above average. The exception to the
really warm temperatures will be over far north central North
Dakota around the Turtle Mountains where snow cover remains
keeping temperatures notably cooler, though still above average.
Along with the toasty temperatures is dry conditions, most
notably over southwest into parts of west central North Dakota
where dewpoints have been lowered below NBM closer to latest
RAP/HRRR values. Minimum humidity values in the upper teens to
mid 20s will combine with a westerly breeze to bring near
critical fire weather conditions. The toasty temperatures
continue through Friday.

On Saturday, cooler air starts to work its way into the area as
a broad Pacific trough busts through the top of the ridge and a
cold front starts to push in. With the timing of the cooler air
arrival, still expect much of western and south central North
Dakota to be quite mild, but over north central North Dakota,
notably cooler temperatures are possible but in question as NBM
spreads are quite high (example would be Rugby where the
25th/75th percentile spread ranges from 38 to 55 degrees). With
the presence of the trough, low precipitation chances show up
over northern parts of the area Saturday (snow over colder
areas/rain over warmer). Low to medium chances (20 to 40
percent) spread through the area overnight, with chances
transitioning towards snow through the night as the cooler air
pushes in.

On Sunday, cooler air settles in with temperatures near to
possibly even a tad below average with drier conditions. Warming
and continued dry conditions are expected Monday into the day on
Tuesday. Late Tuesday through Wednesday bring precipitation
chances to the area. Question still exists as to the timing of
the thermal ridge building in and the trough breaking it down,
as reflected in rather broad NBM temperature spreads throughout
our area (about a 20 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and
75th percentile). Therefore, confidence in high temperatures
forecast is rather low. Cooldown then expected to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is mainly expected throughout the
18Z TAF period. Patchy fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
to develop tonight through Thursday morning in the north central
and eastern North Dakota where melting snowpack can be found.
Have added MVFR ceilings to KJMS, though confidence is too low
to include visibility reductions due to fog at this time. Gusty
west winds are expected through this afternoon, with sustained
speeds up to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds should
diminish through the evening, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Adam