Mooresville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS62 KGSP 182353
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Rain chances remain elevated through tonight as the remnants of
Arthur track across the region. The main hazards with this system
are heavy rainfall capable of producing isolated flash flooding
and isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts. However, there will also be an isolated tornado threat,
mainly along and south of I-85.
2. Increased Fire Danger through 6 PM this evening across the
North Carolina Piedmont.
3. Following a stint of dry and pleasant weather on Saturday
and the first half of Sunday, we`ll settle back into a typical
summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Rain chances remain elevated through tonight as the
remnants of Arthur track across the region. The main hazards with
this system are heavy rainfall capable of producing isolated flash
flooding and isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts. However, there will also be an isolated tornado threat,
mainly along and south of I-85.

The remnants of Arthur will steadily lift northeast across the Deep
South this evening as a cold front approaches out of the northwest.
The remnants of Arthur will track across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia late this evening into early Friday morning before
the cold front pushes across the area behind the remnants on Friday.
Convection has become widespread across the area this evening, and
this is expected to continue into the overnight. This storm system
will be capable of producing isolated severe storms as well as
isolated flash flooding.

The main hazard with any severe storms that develop is damaging wind
gusts. However, there will also be a low-end and conditional
isolated tornado threat. Timing for severe storms still appears to
be from now through around 2 AM Friday. The severe risk was upgraded
to a Slight risk across the North Carolina Piedmont and along and
south of I-85 in South Carolina and northeast Georgia. A tornado
risk was also added, mainly along and south of I-85, where a small
area of storm relative helicity of 200+ J/kg is expected to develop
in the vicinity of a meso-low developing in association with
Arthur`s remnant core. A Marginal risk remains in place elsewhere.
The tornado threat will be highly conditional and dependent on the
exact timing and location of the 850 mb LLJ as well as how much
instability remains in the wake of ongoing convection.

As for the isolated flash flood threat with the remnants of Arthur,
1.5-2"+ PWATs are in place thanks to low-level southwesterly flow
pulling in rich moisture from the Gulf. This will allow moderate to
heavy downpours to develop at times this evening into early Friday
morning. NBM trended up with QPF through Friday morning but it still
appears too low compared to the 12Z high-res guidance. Thus, blended
in 20% of the NBM 90th percentile QPF for this evening and tonight
to better match up with the latest high-res trends. Ended up with
1.5-2.5" across the southern Blue Ridge Escarpment, northeast
Georgia, and the South Carolina Upstate with lower amounts still
expected along and north of I-40. 12Z high-res guidance is still
split on where exactly the axis of heavy rainfall will occur. For
now, it appears that anywhere from the southern Blue Ridge
Escarpment down to northeast Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate
will have the best chance to see locally higher rainfall totals of 3-
4"+. The 12Z CAMs are still split on whether the axis of heaviest
rain will fall along and just north of I-85 or along and just south
of I-85. So, confidence is low regarding the exact location of the
axis of heavy rainfall, thus a Flood Watch will not be issued at
this time. Although most of the ensemble guidance show low
probabilities of >3" of rainfall through early Friday morning, we
cannot rule out the potential for scattered flooding issues, mainly
along/near I-85 but confidence remains low and will depend heavily
on where the axis of heavy rain sets up.

Due to the low confidence on where exactly the flash flooding threat
will occur, as well as whether the tornado threat will materialize,
stay weather aware and make sure you have multiple ways to receive
warnings, especially with the flash flood and tornado threat linger
through late tonight.


Key message 2: Increased Fire Danger through 6 PM this evening across
the North Carolina Piedmont.

In coordination with WFO RAH and the North Carolina Forest Service,
a Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger remains in
effect across the North Carolina Piedmont through 6 PM this evening
despite relative humidity values remaining above critical thresholds
(>30%). The main concern with fire weather this afternoon and early
evening will be the combination of ongoing drought, dry fuels, and
gusty southwest winds (25-35 mph) working together to lead to an
increased risk of fire ignition and adverse fire behavior.


Key message 3: Following a stint of dry and pleasant weather on
Saturday and the first half of Sunday, we`ll settle back into a
typical summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions.  Showers
and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

By Saturday, a weakening frontal zone will be located just to our
south.  A few of 12Z CAMs depict some showers, perhaps even a rumble
of thunder, south of I-85 Saturday afternoon, but generally think
the influence of building high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will
keep convective threat limited...and severe threat virtually nil.
Highs on Saturday will top out around or perhaps a degree or two
below normal.  By all accounts, a pleasant day!

On Sunday and Monday, a series of de-amplifying z500 shortwaves
will dig out of the central Great Plains.  Synoptic guidance is
in good agreement that these waves will generally track across
the central to upper Ohio Valley, remaining embedded within the
stronger upper flow to our north through the first half of the week.
As a result, there`s no real impetus for any severe risk Sunday,
Monday, and Tuesday, with only typical summertime diurnal convection
anticipated.

By Wednesday and beyond, the upper pattern will become more
amplified, as troughing deepens over the Midwest and heights fall
across the Carolinas in response.  There`s not much ensemble
consistency in depicting any specific impulses on Wednesday
thru Friday...but the pattern will be such that a shortwave or
two may eject out of the Ozarks and cross the area late in the
week...possibly resulting in an uptick in convection and severe
chances.  Confidence remains low, however, on anything more than
typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has become widespread across the
Terminal Forecast Area this evening, with at least tempos for TSRA
warranted at all sites except KHKY until late evening. Although TS
are expected to become less common during the overnight, periods of
moderate-to-heavy SHRA are expected through the pre-dawn hours,
as the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur pass over the South
Carolina Piedmont. IFR visby will accompany bursts of heavier
rainfall, while cigs are expected to gradually lower to IFR at
most sites overnight. However, convective activity could result in
highly variable cigs from late evening into the early part of the
overnight. Cigs are expected to improve quickly around sunrise, as
flow turns NW/downslope in the wake of surface low pressure. VFR
is expected for much of the daylight hours. A few showers or a
storm is possible during the afternoon, mainly across upstate SC.

Winds remain gusty from the SW this evening...enhanced by
convective outflow. Gusts should relent by late evening, with
winds turning toward the E or SE in advance of the surface low
later this evening, then turning toward the W and NW in the wake
of the low late tonight. Winds remain NW through the day Thursday,
with some afternoon gusts to around 20 kts possible at KAVL

Outlook: A cold front may trigger shower and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of I-85. Dry and
relatively inactive weather returns Friday night into Saturday
night. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms should
return each day Sunday into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JDL/MPR