Asheville, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

849
FXUS62 KGSP 020626
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
126 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes were made to the Cold Wx Advisory at this issuance,
though temperatures and wind chills have been updated. A Special
Weather Statement remains in place for our entire forecast area
to highlight widespread black ice and hazardous road conditions
this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Very cold temperatures and breezy winds overnight and into the
morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for much of the
area thru 9 AM, with a risk of hypothermia and/or frostbite if
precautions are not taken. Widespread black ice is also expected
thru the morning where roads have frozen over due to snowmelt on
Sunday, causing hazardous road conditions.
2. Temperatures gradually warm thru the first half of the
week. Precipitation chances return late Tuesday and linger into
Thursday with mostly dry conditions expected for the remain-
der of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Very cold temperatures and breezy winds overnight
and into the morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for
much of the area thru 9 AM, with a risk of hypothermia and/or
frostbite if precautions are not taken. Widespread black ice is
also expected thru the morning where roads have frozen over due
to snowmelt on Sunday, causing hazardous road conditions.

Ridge of high pressure extends thru the Deep South and Ohio Valley
from anticyclone near the Louisiana coast, with slightly confluent
northwesterly upper level flow upstream of trough off the East
Coast. On the periphery of the ridge, a modest sfc/upper pressure
gradient persists over the southern Appalachians. Following a
very windy day in the lee of the Blue Ridge, gusts have become
infrequent and less than 20 kt at the airport obs sites, though
sustained winds generally still are reported. Temps have been
running warmer than most guidance, despite the snowpack still on
the ground across most of the CWA. Based on low level progs of the
gradient across the mountains and lee-wave signature, it may take
some time before flow diminishes enough to allow good radiational
cooling, under mostly clear skies. NBM temps are actually proving
too cold at the moment but think obs will catch up with the hourly
values in the last 2-3 hours of the night. Lows mainly end up in
the single digits in the mountains and over the snowier parts
of the I-77 corridor, with lower teens otherwise. Wind chills
will remain largely below -5F in the mountains east/northeast of
Asheville, and mostly 0 to 5 in the lower elevation areas east of
I-26. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for those portions
of the CWA through 9 AM. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and
gloves when venturing out this morning. Ensure portable heaters
are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.

Despite being warmer than originally expected, temps are below
freezing throughout the area as of midnight Monday morning. The
snowmelt which occurred with sunshine Sunday left many areas
with wet roads, but even where roads managed to completely clear
or dry, shady spots likely remained iced over from the previous
night. Temperatures are not expected to warm above freezing until
noonish in the Piedmont and mountain valleys, though some higher
elevation areas will remain below freezing through the day. Sunny
skies likely will lead to more melting/drying over the course of
Monday. However, for at least the morning, be extremely careful due
to the potential for black ice on roads, parking lots, sidewalks,
driveways, bridges, and overpasses. A Special Weather Statement
was issued to highlight this possibility across the CWA. If
traveling, be prepared for hazardous road conditions, especially
on bridges and overpasses as well as on untreated roadways. Use
extra caution when walking on sidewalks, driveways, and in parking
lots. Temperatures are not expected to be as cold Monday night, with
warmer and more humid air beginning to return to the region ahead
of an approaching weak low pressure system. Nevertheless patchy
black ice could remain a problem Monday night into early Tuesday.


Key message 2: Temperatures gradually warm thru the first half of
the week. Precipitation chances return late Tuesday and linger
into Thursday with mostly dry conditions expected for the remain-
der of the week.

Flat upper ridging will be translating across the Ohio Valley and
the Appalachians by Tuesday morning while upper shortwave energy
dives down the eastern flank of a tall west coast upper ridge. This
will carve out a positively tilted upper trof over the Southern
Plains with a broad zone of mid/upper level SW flow extending from
the Gulf states into the Carolinas. At the same time, a sfc cold
front will drop SE across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley/TN
with a broad area of precipitation ahead of the bndy. The leading
edge of the precipitation is expected to reach the NC mtns late
Tuesday evening where rain chances are the highest. The latest
guidance continues to struggle to maintain much precip coverage
east of the mtns due to the upper trof orientation, lack of any
stronger forcing, and a poorly-developed sfc low. The latest gui-
dance hasn`t changed much wrt temperatures late Tuesday thru early
Thursday, with most ensembles members not quite cold enough for
wintry precip east of the mtns. Nonetheless, I still have a low-
end chance for a rain/snow mix east of the mtns but no real accu-
mulations. Any snow accumulations in the mtns are still expected
to be below Advisory criteria. Beginning Thurs afternoon, things
look mostly dry for the rest of the week and thru the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through Tuesday morning. Gusts
are on a decreasing trend over the NC mountains but a few
gusts could persist at KAVL thru the wee hours of Monday
morning. Low-level flow has been enough to seemingly keep many sites
from decoupling following sunset, though gradual weakening of the
winds east of the mountains will lead to increasing instances of
calm/VRB. Otherwise, winds will remain light NW thru daybreak. All
sites except KAVL pick up from the SW by mid-morning Monday; KAVL
remains light NW. A few cirrus will drift in early this morning
with some midlevel clouds also seen during the day over the TAF
terminals; some MVFR level clouds could bank along the TN/NC border
tonight but not likely affecting KAVL or other TAF sites.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least midday Tuesday. A cold
front brings precipitation and possibly periodic restrictions back
Tuesday night into late Wednesday. Brisk winds and some rain or
light snow chances may return to the mountains late Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1989     16 1908     52 1988     -2 1917
   KCLT      80 1989     29 1908     61 1923     10 1917
   KGSP      77 1989     28 1951     60 1923      9 1900

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ033-
     035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ008-
     009-011>014-019-103-106>109.

&&

$$

JCW/JPT