Islip, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXUS61 KOKX 060618
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
218 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A weak area of low pressure passes to the north Monday night
into Tuesday, bringing a low end chance for precipitation for
the interior.

2. Temperatures warm to near seasonable levels Thursday,
followed by an increasing probability of above normal
temperatures for later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Rain is currently leaving the area with dry conditions expected
the rest of tonight.

A weak low may bring some precipitation for inland areas Monday
night into Tuesday, but PoPs are only 30 percent at this time.
Some snowflakes may mix in, especially for higher terrain. With
temperatures above freezing and light precipitation amounts
forecast, no snow is expected to accumulated.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures will remain below average through the middle of
the week, with the coldest readings on Wednesday. Highs will
only be in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

THe high moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday allowing
for a more moderate airmass to advect into the area toward the
end of the week. Temperature uncertainty increases Thursday,
mainly due to uncertainty around the sfc wind direction. With
water temperatures still quite cold a more southerly or easterly
component to the wind as opposed to a more westerly component
will have a big effect on temperatures. Thus, have stayed with
the NBM temperature guidance through Thursday night. However,
with a cold front that likely washes out with rising heights
just upstream look for the potential for noticeably warmer
temperatures than consensus guidance is currently indicating for
Friday, and on Saturday as well. For now staying close to the
NBM, but there is a higher than average chance for adjustments
going forward in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another cold front approaches the area during the TAF period, moving
through by late tonight. This will bring potentially some rain
showers for some of the terminals.

Mainly a VFR forecast through the TAF period. Terminals north and
east of the NYC terminals have a higher chance of showers late
tonight so a PROB30 group was used for KHPN, KBDR and KSWF for the
showers as well as MVFR conditions.

Steep pressure gradient keeps gusty NW flow through much of the TAF
period. The pressure gradient loosens mid to late afternoon,
allowing for more westerly to even some WSW flow but still gusty.
Winds lighten more tonight as cold front enters the region. Wind
direction becomes more variable.

Sustained wind speeds mainly near 10-15 kts lower tonight to near 5-
10 kts. Gusts are in the 20-25 kts range, which will lower tonight
and eventually diminish altogether.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Rain showers and MVFR possible late tonight.

Gust timing might be a few hours off from TAF.

Gusts into early morning may not occur each hour and thereby be
more occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Tonight: MVFR possible. A chance of rain showers, possibly
briefing mixing with snow northeast of NYC terminals.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Some southerly wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory for the ocean was extended through the day
Monday as wave heights remain above 5 ft, though waves diminish
through the day and SCA may come down for Sandy Hook to Fire
Island inlet before the day`s end.

Marginal small craft conditions are possible in NW flow
Tuesday, possibly lingering on the eastern ocean waters Tuesday
night. Otherwise, sub advisory conditions prevail for mid week
during Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JP/JT/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP