Islip, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS61 KOKX 261522
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1122 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer through Wednesday, with a late afternoon/evening
shower or thunderstorm possible on Wednesday.

2) Moderate risk of rip currents today and Wednesday.

3) Seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week
through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A subtropical ridge will remain anchored over the western
Atlantic, while northern branch energy carves out an upper
trough by midweek. At the surface, weak high pressure builds in
today. On Wednesday, the frontal boundary well to our south may
nudge far enough north to bring some showers to the area
Wednesday morning, mainly for northeast NJ, NYC and western Long
Island. Later in the day on Wednesday, a cold front will move
through with associated aforementioned northern branch energy
bringing a slight chance for a late afternoon/evening shower or
thunderstorm. At this time, any thunderstorms don`t look to be
too impressive. If there will be any stronger storms they will
likely be over southern CT where instability is maximized before
the front moves through. Model consensus shows MLCAPE
potentially reaching 1000 J/kg with decent shear for southern
CT. CSU MLP guidance has been going back and forth with a
marginal wind risk. Strength of storms will become clearer with
subsequent model runs, especially now that we are within the
CAM window.

Before the frontal passage, temperatures today and Wednesday top
out in the 80s for most. With a light onshore flow, Long
Island and coastal CT will be a few degrees cooler, in the mid
and upper 70s. The NBM was generally followed, with corrections
made to Long Island for the recent high bias.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Moderate risk of rip currents today with residual 3-ft SE swell
and 2-ft S wind waves.

Low to Moderate risk of rip currents likely on Wednesday with
residual 2-ft SE swell, and 2-ft S wind waves.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures return closer to normal for the end of this week
into early next week. An upper level low originating in the
Arctic and associated surface low drop down to the area late
Friday into Saturday. This may lead to some showers for southern
CT and Long Island. Much of the guidance has 850 temps near 0C
with this feature on Saturday. This is well below normal for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will slide to the south and east through tonight.
A weak cold front will approach on Wed.

VFR. SW sea breeze has already developed at KBDR/KGON, and
should also develop early this afternoon at KJFK/KISP. KLGA will
hang onto ENE Sound breeze until 20Z-21Z. Winds at KEWR/KTEB
have veered from northerly to ENE which should enable afternoon
sea breeze development early this afternoon.

MVFR/IFR cond likely toward the Wed AM push for most terminals
except perhaps KSWF/KBDR.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD still possible to adjust timing of sea breeze onset if later
than fcst. Potential for MVFR/IFR cond for the Wed AM push.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with slight chance of a shower before 14Z.
An isolated late day or early evening shower or tstm
also possible.

Thursday: Chance of an afternoon shower at KGON, otherwise VFR.

Friday: VFR. Chance of showers/MVFR after midnight mainly at
KGON/KISP/KBDR/KSWF.

Saturday: Chance of morning showers/MVFR mainly at
KGON/KISP/KBDR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon and
early evening.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions look to remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BG/NV
MARINE...JT