Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS61 KBUF 161759
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Surface visibilities were lowered through Friday due to wildfire
smoke.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will
continue to impact our region through Friday.

2) Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances of showers
and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Smoke from active wildfires across south-central
Canada will continue to impact our region through Friday.

A west-northwest flow aloft will continue to support a considerable
amount of smoke from Canadian wildfires across the eastern Great
Lakes region through Friday. Vertically integrated smoke from the
HRRR showing the worst smoke conditions will be through this
evening. This model showing a gradual northeast to southwest
decrease in smoke "denseness" tonight, with a gradual return of
smoke during the day Friday, as the environmental flow starts to
shift more to the west-southwest, bringing the smoke back across the
region. A continued west-southwest flow should mostly eliminate the
smoke across the region by this weekend.

Key Message 2...Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances
of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.

A potent shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes region
Saturday. An initially broad surface low will deepen as it tracks
just north of the region, with a deep southerly flow advecting
abundant moisture into the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will develop into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning
as a warm front lifts through. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms will form along and ahead of a cold front Saturday
afternoon and evening. Increasing instability and modest wind fields
may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Near surface dense smoke from northern Minnesota and Canadian
wildfires has led to widespread IFR conditions this morning.
Over the last hour or so, visibilities have started to improve
with most stations now between 2-3 sm. The expectation is for
visibilities to hover in this range for the rest of today, with
a mix of IFR and MVFR conditions across the TAF sites.
Thereafter, visibilities will likely improve from north to south
gradually overnight. Across the Southern Tier, smoke may become
trapped in valleys until sunrise, which would allow IFR/low end
MVFR conditions to continue. Short term modeling currently
shows near surface smoke and visibility improvements for most
locations tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions returning.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Restrictions likely in
periodic showers and thunderstorms. Lingering smoke and
visibility impacts possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly fair weather and VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
West-southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will continue on the lower
Great Lakes through this evening, with the stronger end of the range
on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. Wave heights will likely remain
under 4 feet, but choppy conditions are expected through this
evening.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will result in periods of reduced
visibility on the lower Great Lakes through Friday. The worst of the
conditions will be through tonight on Lake Erie, where a Dense Smoke
Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM Friday for visibility down
to one nautical mile.

A warm front will pass across the lower Great Lakes late Friday
night into Saturday with south-southwest winds freshening to 15-20
knots. Waves will build to near 3 feet Saturday. A cold front will
move across the region late Saturday with west and northwest winds
developing behind it, with a period of small craft conditions likely
developing on Lake Ontario late Saturday and Saturday night.

Thunderstorms chances will increase starting early Saturday with the
warm front and be possible throughout the day until the cold front
moves through.

High pressure builds in Sunday and persists through Monday with
winds and waves subsiding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...HSK/TMA