Truth Consequences, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

949
FXUS64 KEPZ 042329
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

 - An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of
   rain showers into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday. West
   winds will gust 30 to 40 mph across the region.

 - Warmer weather will arrive later this week. Temperatures will
   rise into the 90s across the lowlands this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026
Plenty of high clouds streaming into the area this afternoon, all
steered into the area around an upper low over central
California. Breezy conditions will continue to develop through the
early evening hours, with some gusts 25 to 30 mph possible.

The upper low will slowly roll towards the lower Colorado River
valley Tuesday afternoon. Some deeper moisture will work into the
area, with a band of showers diminishing in intensity as they move
into southwestern New Mexico. Best chance for light wetting rain
will be in the Gila Region, and to a lesser extent the Sacramento
Mountains, as most of the showers will dissipate as they approach
the Rio Grande.

For the rest of us, breezy to windy conditions are expected, with
gusts 35 to 40 mph in the afternoon. This is not likely to raise
up much dust, but we`ll have to keep an eye on Lordsburg Playa.

The original upper low will lift into northern New Mexico as an
open trough Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
diving down the backside of the upper low will pinch off into
another upper low over the northern Gulf of California by
Wednesday night. This low will drift east, only reaching the Big
Bend by Saturday. But, it will be completely void of upper level
moisture. Models suggest some very light precip will try to get
coughed up south of the border, and behind a very weak backdoor
front on Thursday, but precip chances on our side of the border
look to be very low.

In the wake of the low, increasing westerly flow aloft will bring
temperatures back up into the 80s by Friday, with 90s possible in
the lowlands this weekend, something we haven`t seen since... oh
right, March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusty W winds
last into the overnight to 20-25kts with low-level winds near or
above 30kts. Sfc winds increase further Tue afternoon, gusting to
30-35kts. AWW criteria is likely to be met later in the period at
KELP along with possible BLDU and VIS to MVFR thresholds. Lowered
VIS is also possible at KDMN and KLRU, but confidence is lower.
BKN200-250 continue to pass overhead into tomorrow with CIGs down
to 10kft for KDMN and KTCS. Cannot rule out isolated sprinkles out
west Tue AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of showers
into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, along with breezy to windy
conditions. Despite wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon,
fire weather conditions will be mitigated due to recent rainfall
(ERCs mostly around 50th percentile now), and an increase in
humidity with the incoming system (minimum RHs 25 to 30 percent
lowlands, 35 to 55 percent higher elevations).

Lighter winds are expected from Wednesday as conditions become
warmer and drier. A very weak backdoor front will bring a reversal
to easterly flow Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, and help
keep high temperatures about 4 to 7 degrees below normal.

Temperatures will begin to rebound late week, with 90s returning
to the lowlands for the weekend, along with single-digit RH
values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  80  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            62  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  75  46  74 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  73  50  75 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               44  50  36  51 /  10  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    59  73  47  75 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              47  64  39  65 /  20  40   0   0
Deming                   55  77  46  76 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg                53  72  41  71 /  20  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro       62  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                59  78  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             64  84  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  72  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   64  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  76  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           64  76  55  75 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range            55  74  45  76 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                    57  77  46  77 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                 58  78  51  78 /   0  10   0   0
Orogrande                59  74  50  74 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                  51  64  41  64 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                51  61  39  64 /  10  30   0   0
Timberon                 45  59  38  61 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  46  64  34  68 /  20  40   0  10
Hillsboro                57  70  43  72 /  10  20   0   0
Spaceport                52  73  42  75 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             32  64  28  67 /  30  50   0   0
Hurley                   48  68  37  69 /  20  20   0   0
Cliff                    46  70  34  72 /  30  50   0   0
Mule Creek               39  66  29  69 /  50  60  10   0
Faywood                  49  67  43  69 /  10  20   0   0
Animas                   53  73  43  73 /  10  20   0   0
Hachita                  54  73  44  73 /  10  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           57  74  46  75 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               49  67  40  71 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson