Santa Teresa, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

254
FXUS64 KEPZ 191151
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
551 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

 - Historic March warmth through the weekend. Temperatures will
   peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to
   middle nineties.

 - Very dry conditions over the next several days with single
   digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire
   concerns for the time being.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

There is very little change to the forecast. An anomalously
strong area of high pressure continues to cover the West with it
expected to gradually move east, centering itself toward the NM-AZ
border by the weekend. Highs will be more typical of late May or
early June through Sunday with daily record highs threatened,
along with all-time March record highs. The good news (and bad
news for future fire threat) is the air is extremely dry, so that,
combined with light winds and clear skies, will allow really
efficient radiative cooling at night. Lows will drop into the 50s
with the interior portions of El Paso a bit warmer.

The UL ridge tries to flatten this weekend as s/w troughs cross it
well to our north. The zonal flow will be what helps get
temperatures well above record levels this weekend. By Monday
though, a stout s/w, well to our northeast, will force cooler,
Canadian air southward through the Plains. Both the GFS and Euro
show some of this air making it into Far West TX and Southern NM
with the 18z run of the GFS more aggressive than the 12z Euro.
Operational NBM, which is supported by the 25th through 75th
percentile, shows about 10-15 degrees of cooling, a little less
toward the AZ border, compared to Sunday. This is still well above
normal, but at least it`s a break from the historical heat. This
cool down will be short-lived though as westerly flow and the
rebuilding of the ridge, send temperatures back upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A large dome of high pressure is expanding over the region, and
that will keep flight conditions VFR for all terminals through the
period. Skies generally SKC, with FEW250 streaming over, as they
pass N to S. Winds will be light and variable through the
overnight, and then SW in the 3-8kt range through the afternoon
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A large dome of high pressure is strengthening and expanding
across the Southwestern U.S. This will bring increasingly hot and
dry conditions to the area. The highest temperatures are expected
Friday through Sunday with daily max temperatures as warm as 20
to 25 degrees above normal. At the same time, we will also see the
driest air of the season, with Minimum RH values ranging from
around 4 to 8 percent in the lowlands this weekend, and 8 to 10
percent in the higher terrain. The one weather element keeping
conditions from rising to critical is the winds. The relaxed
pressure gradients under the upper ridge, will keep winds quite
light. This will mitigate near-term fire weather concerns, but
this extended stretch of abnormally warm and dry conditions
rapidly and significantly dry fuels.

A minor cool front will push in from the NE on Monday. This will
drop temperatures about 10 degrees, but they will still be at
least 10 degrees warmer than the daily average. There are some
minor gains in relative humidity behind the front, but it is not
significant, with minRH still in the teens across the region. This
minor dip in challenging fire weather quickly reverses, with more
warming and drying, starting Tuesday, but with a continuation of
generally light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  57  95  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               51  92  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               51  93  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  71  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  92  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  88  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   50  95  50  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                51  94  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       60  93  61  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                48  95  50  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  98  55  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               57  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  96  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  92  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           59  93  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  94  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    48  95  50  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 54  94  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                51  90  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  84  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 50  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  44  86  46  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                46  93  49  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  89  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   50  90  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  96  50  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  91  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  54  90  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   53  94  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  93  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           54  93  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               60  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird