Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

938
FXUS64 KEPZ 151643
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
943 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 945 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

 - Dry conditions through the week ahead with no rain chances
   into the Christmas holiday.

 - Seasonal temperatures today, then a rapid warmup after Tuesday.
   Lowland highs in the lower seventies will be near daily records
   for mid December.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 945 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

The CONUS remains entrenched with a ridge west / trough east
pattern, which has been the case for what feels like forever. To
mix things up a little, we have a s/w trough traversing the Desert
SW. It is quite moisture starved, but it is producing an area of
high clouds but no precip. We remain within the edge of a colder
air mass, so highs today will be near normal.

The s/w trough will exit the state later this afternoon into
evening, taking the clouds with it. A very slowly deepening trough
over the Pacific will begin a very slow transition to our weather
pattern as flow becomes zonal across the CONUS. This will send
temperatures to near record territory with the warmest day
projected to be on Saturday. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny
while winds remain light. Christmas looks warm and dry with the
25th percentile already well above normal in the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 945 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected with BKN-OVC200-250 becoming SKC west
to east this afternoon and evening. Winds will be light and
variable throughout the period with direction favoring north at
KELP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 945 AM MST Mon Dec 15 2025

A dry pattern is expected for the next several days, but winds
will be light. This afternoon`s min RH will be somewhat higher
with cooler temperatures, bottoming out in the upper 20s and lower
30s. Warmer weather is expected beginning for Tuesday, which will
push min RH values into the mid teens. That will remain the case
for the rest of the week as will well above normal temperatures.
Skies will be clear or mostly clear after today.

As mentioned, winds will be light with speeds less than 10 MPH
each afternoon. This will keep venting in the poor to fair
category much of the week. The warmer temperatures on Saturday
will help foster fair to good vent rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  38  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            36  65  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               31  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               31  66  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               30  47  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    34  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              35  65  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   33  71  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                31  68  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       39  68  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                28  70  26  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             37  71  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               38  61  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   35  69  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             33  67  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           39  68  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            28  66  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    30  70  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 35  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                31  64  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  36  62  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 31  57  29  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  29  64  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                36  68  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                28  65  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             31  65  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   33  68  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    27  70  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               31  68  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  36  68  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   34  70  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  31  70  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           35  72  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               42  67  42  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown