Chaparral, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

652
FXUS64 KEPZ 192003
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
203 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

 - Historic March heat through the weekend. Temperatures will
   peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to
   middle nineties.

 - Very dry conditions over the next several days with single
   digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire
   concerns for the time being, but some afternoon breeziness is
   possible Saturday and Sunday across the Gila Region and Black
   Range.

 - A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures on
   Monday, albeit slightly. Temperatures look to tick upwards
   again towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad, dry ridge centered over
Arizona. RAP analysis shows the max geopotential height under the
high at 597dm, but a couple of RAOBS from Yuma Proving Ground in
SW Arizona checked with 500 mb heights of 598 dm at 18 and 20Z.
Very much a late May/June type pattern, but in mid-late March.

The high at ELP yesterday eeked out 90 degrees, tying the record
for earliest 90+ reading. Considering 850mb temps look to be about
2 degrees (C) warmer today versus yesterday, and another 1C
tomorrow, I bumped highs up a 1-2 degrees versus the NBM for the
next couple of days. The NBM has crude bias correction, but that
has its limitations when dealing with such a highly anomalous
event. So, we may break our all-time March high (93) as early as
tomorrow, then pad that by a degree or two Saturday or Sunday.

The lowest elevations of Hudspeth County could even reach 100,
most likely along the Rio Grande below Fort Quitman, but we`ll
never know it given the lack of observations (or even people) down
that way.

Sunday night`s backdoor cold front still looks to arrive on time,
but the latest GFS has it just reaching the Continental Divide and
mixing out to the Rio Grande late Monday afternoon. So, we can say
with confidence that`ll push west of the Sacramento and Guadalupe
Mountains, but it`s shallow enough that 90s will still be possible
in far SW New Mexico on Monday, while El Paso and Las Cruces will
probably dip into the upper-80s... still 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

The mid-week shortwave over Colorado has trended weaker, and the
ridge a bit stronger and centered closer to ELP. 90s are likely to
return to El Paso on Tuesday, and while winds look a little
lighter on Wednesday than they did 24 hours ago, that`s near the
end of the forecast period with considerable uncertainty.

A stronger backdoor cold front is possible late Thursday, but the
ensemble ranges for highs on Tuesday at ELP have a 17 degree
spread between the 25th and 75th percentile, so that`s still up in
the air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions with light/variable winds through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026
A strong and sprawling upper level ridge will bring hot and dry
conditions to the area through the weekend. High temperatures will
range from 20 to 25 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday.
At the same time, minimum RH values may drop below 5 percent in
lowlands, and range from 7 to 10 percent in the higher terrain.
winds will be fairly light through the hot and dry period,
mitigating fire weather concerns. Some weak lee troughing in the
Middle Rio Grande Valley may produce some gusts around 20 mph
Saturday and Sunday afternoon over the Gila Region and the Black
Range.

But, we`ll reiterate that this stretch of hot and dry weather
will allow fuels to dry rapidly, leading to higher wildfire risk
for any future windy days in the days and weeks ahead.

A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures slightly
on Monday. The risk of stronger east winds will be offset by the
continued lee troughing that shifts north towards central New
Mexico, reducing the pressure gradient in the SW portion of the
state. We still need to keep an eye on Wednesday as a weak
shortwave trough passes through Colorado. It`s trended a little
weaker, but there`s still a lot of uncertainty with the details.
Temperatures also look to return to the 90s across the lowlands,
and we may well see 5% RH values again as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  56  95  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            59  90  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  91  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  92  52  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  71  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    57  91  58  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              54  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   47  94  50  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                45  92  47  95 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       56  92  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                45  94  46  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             47  97  49  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               46  87  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  95  56  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             53  91  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           58  93  64  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            40  92  41  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    43  95  45  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 53  94  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                49  90  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  85  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                41  82  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 40  79  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  45  85  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                56  90  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                45  92  46  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             29  88  35  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   49  90  50  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    39  94  39  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  90  35  91 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  54  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   51  92  52  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  92  53  95 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  92  51  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               53  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman