Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

789
FXUS64 KMAF 182219
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
519 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Dangerously hot temperatures continue today, followed by
  relatively cooler weather Friday behind today`s front.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today into
  tonight (10-30% chances). Low-to-medium rain chances (20-40%)
  stick around Friday, mainly along and south of I-10.

- Above-normal temperatures redevelop this weekend and continue
  through the extended forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Hot temperatures persist for much of the area today. Many locations
across west Texas in particular have already hit (or are very close
to hitting) 100 degrees this afternoon. However, a cold front has
begun slowly making its way across northern and western portions of
our area. This front has brought cooler temperatures and breezy
northerly winds to southeast New Mexico and northern portions of
the Permian Basin. The front will continue pushing across the
region this evening before it stalls around the higher terrain in
southern portions of the CWA and begins to wash out. Both the Heat
Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning are maintained and will remain
in effect through 10pm CDT tonight. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are still forecast to develop in the
higher terrain this afternoon. Additional development is expected
as the front pushes southward into the Trans-Pecos and towards the
mountains. Impressive DCAPE values (on the order of 1500-2000
J/kg in general) suggests storms that do develop would be capable
of producing damaging downburst winds. Rain chances generally
range between 10-30% this evening and tonight areawide.

Behind the front, lows tonight generally stay in the upper 60s and
low-to-mid 70s. Friday`s highs end up in the low-to-mid 90s for most
of the area, with 100s sticking around along the Rio Grande. Moist
upsloping winds, a disturbance in the upper-level flow, and the
presence of the decaying front helps maintain low to medium rain
chances (20-40%) tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly along and
south of I-10. Rain chances taper down that evening. Low
temperatures Friday night end up similar to tonight`s.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Upper-level ridging begins to build this weekend. This causes
temperatures to once again warm through early next week. Highs
Saturday top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, with temperatures reaching
or exceeding 100 degrees along the Rio Grande and in portions of the
Trans-Pecos. Highs near or above 100 degrees become more widespread
Sunday and Monday. Low rain chances (10-20%) become confined mainly
to the mountains Saturday and beyond. However, some long-range
guidance still tries to bring convectively-induced boundaries into
northern portions of our area early next week. As a result, low rain
chances (10-30%) are maintained for these northernmost counties.
Otherwise, above-normal temperatures stick around through the rest
of the extended as we remain on the eastern periphery of a
strengthening upper-level ridge over the Desert Southwest.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, w/the exception
of KHOB, which could see a couple of hours of post-frontal MVFR
cigs Friday morning. Surface winds will decouple/relax after
sundown, then veer to northeast Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  91  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 69  96  71 101 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   76  98  73  96 /  30  40  20  10
Fort Stockton            71  96  71  98 /  30  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  88  68  93 /  30  20   0   0
Hobbs                    65  91  67  97 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    62  92  61  94 /  30  40   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     71  92  71  96 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                   70  92  71  96 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                     70  96  72 100 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Loving-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves
     County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Glasscock-
     Howard-Lower Brewster County-Mitchell-Reagan-Terrell.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99