Belen, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXUS65 KABQ 191930
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
130 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Widespread record high temperatures into the weekend posing
  heat-related illness for those most sensitive to heat. Heat Risk
  peaks Saturday in east-central and southeast NM.

- Exceptionally dry conditions prevail through the weekend. There
  is a low chance of critical fire weather conditions in northern
  and eastern New Mexico Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

- A backdoor cold front arrives in eastern NM Sunday, lowering
  high temperatures. Gusty east canyon winds likely to push
  through the central mountain chain Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

It was a cool morning around much of the area, but temperatures have
rapidly warmed up (already 50+ degrees in some areas). The 500mb
height from the 18Z sounding at KABQ was 595mb, which is 4mb more
than the previous record of 591mb (set yesterday). This is quite
exceptional and has translated to exceptionally warm temperatures at
the sfc as well. Daily and monthly record highs are on tap to be
broken today in just about every corner of New Mexico. High
temperatures Friday will be very close to today`s highs as the ridge
weakens slightly. Many more records are likely to fall tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The record-setting ridge will begin to flatten this weekend,
creating light breezes around central and northern New Mexico.
Despite lower 500mb heights, the downsloping breeze will likely
translate to even warmer temperatures in lower elevation locations
such as the Rio Grande Valley and the Eastern Plains. As a result,
the probability of reaching at least 90F is 99%+ in all of the
Eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, with a 10-40% chance of reaching
100F. Saturday will be Albuquerque`s best chance to reach 90F, with
a 80% chance at the Sunport and even higher probs lower in the
valley. Albuquerque`s record first 90 degree day is May 3rd so 90-
degree weather in March would be truly extraordinary. Temperatures
trend a tad lower Sunday, but there will still be record-breaking
heat for much of the area. Temperatures finally begin to trend lower
on Monday behind a potent and gusty backdoor front. The front will
also bring higher dewpoints with it and this density gradient should
help to drive some gusty east winds through the gaps of the central
mountain chain Sunday night. Even in the wake of the front,
temperatures will threaten records in central and western NM.

The heat turns up again early to mid-next week as highs rise over 20
degrees above normal yet again. There are signals in the ensemble
data that the ridge will begin to break down late next week,
dropping temperatures slightly. However, probabilities are very high
for the continuation of the seasonably warm weather persisting
through the end of March.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions with light winds will continue to prevail through
the TAF period. Record heat will likely result in higher density
altitude readings than normal for late March.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The record-setting ridge will begin to flatten this weekend,
creating light breezes around central and northern New Mexico.
Despite lower 500mb heights, the downsloping breeze will likely
translate to even warmer temperatures in lower elevation locations
such as the Rio Grande Valley and the Eastern Plains. As a result,
the probability of reaching at least 90F is 99%+ in all of the
Eastern Plains Saturday afternoon, with a 10-40% chance of reaching
100F. Saturday will be Albuquerque`s best chance to reach 90F, with
a 80% chance at the Sunport and even higher probs lower in the
valley. Albuquerque`s record first 90 degree day is May 3rd so 90-
degree weather in March would be truly extraordinary. Temperatures
trend a tad lower Sunday, but there will still be record-breaking
heat for much of the area. Temperatures finally begin to trend lower
on Monday behind a potent and gusty backdoor front. The front will
also bring higher dewpoints with it and this density gradient should
help to drive some gusty east winds through the gaps of the central
mountain chain Sunday night. Even in the wake of the front,
temperatures will threaten records in central and western NM.

The heat turns up again early to mid-next week as highs rise over 20
degrees above normal yet again. There are signals in the ensemble
data that the ridge will begin to break down late next week,
dropping temperatures slightly. However, probabilities are very high
for the continuation of the seasonably warm weather persisting
through the end of March.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The all-time March record high (85F) for Albuquerque was tied
yesterday and is expected to be broken this afternoon and likely
again Friday and Saturday. The best chance to reach 90F in
Albuquerque is Saturday afternoon (~80% chance). Albuquerque has
never reached 90F during the months of March or April.

Roswell will be near the daily record high today and Friday and will
very likely break a record high on Saturday. The current forecast
high for Roswell on Saturday is 96F, which would break the March
record of 95F. There is even a 20-40% chance that Roswell reaches
100F on Saturday, which would be the earliest ever 100-degree day by
over 1 month.

Clayton is unlikely to break a record high today, however we are
forecasting record highs on Friday and Saturday. The current
forecast high for Saturday is 93F, which would break the previous
March record of 92.

All locations in central and northern New Mexico will at least
threaten daily record highs each day through Saturday. Many areas
will break March record highs and by several degrees in some cases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  84  39  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  32  83  31  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  38  82  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  28  84  30  88 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  82  38  85 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  33  85  33  88 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  83  40  86 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  82  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  82  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  89  37  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  94  41  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  77  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  49  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  82  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  37  78  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  35  69  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  18  76  19  77 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  31  83  32  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  42  80  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  42  88  42  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  48  82  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  42  84  42  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  87  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  89  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  91  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  89  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  42  89  42  93 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  89  48  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  41  90  41  93 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  47  90  47  92 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  40  89  40  93 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  51  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  89  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  52  92  52  94 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  49  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  85  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  87  33  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  43  82  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  85  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  84  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  88  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  40  79  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  35  83  34  88 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  36  84  35  91 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  82  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  47  86  49  93 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  42  84  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  92  44  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  45  88  44  94 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  90  44  97 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  49  92  50  97 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  94  47  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  93  44  97 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  46  92  47  96 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  50  90  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  50  89  49  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16