Artesia, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

179
FXUS64 KMAF 020659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- A quiet weather pattern persists with near to slightly warmer
  than normal temperatures and dry conditions throughout the
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mid to upper ridging over the Great Basin and Desert SW today
continues the large scale sinking motion and warm and dry weather.
VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning depict mid to high level
clouds mainly south of Culberson County and the northern Permian
Basin drifting in a clockwise direction in the west/southwest mid to
high level flow off the northern MX plateau. These higher clouds are
limiting overnight cooling and will result in less chance of
mist/fog formation than past mornings except perhaps regions of
clearer skies over northern parts of the forecast area. Highs today
rise 5F to 10F warmer than yesterday under increased ridging and
continued warm air advection from west/southwest flow. NBM and high-
res ensembles are still in agreement in forecasting 60s F, 50s F
higher elevations, and 70s F Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos
(and possibly Pecos River Valley in SE NM plains) and Presidio
Valley into Big Bend by this afternoon. As a disturbance develops at
the crest of the mid to upper ridging over the northern Rockies and
propagates southeast, ridging will begin to break down and allow for
the sharpening of a cold front over the central High Plains and CO
Rockies that surges south through the area. Timing of the front in
high-res ensembles is later than the Monday evening timing the
NBM is suggesting - instead pushed back to early morning through
mid- morning Tuesday. Ensembles also indicate timing of peak
northerly winds sustained 20 to 30 mph for higher elevations of
Guadalupes through Lower Trans Pecos during Tuesday morning. At
this time, winds even for highest elevations remain below high
wind criteria for highest elevations, so did not issue any wind
products. However the situation progresses with timing of the
front, tonight will still continue the warming trend in low
temperatures for one more night under dew point
temperatures/boundary layer moisture remaining in the upper 20s F
to mid 30s F easternmost parts of the forecast area and inhibiting
overnight cooling, as both NBM and ensembles indicate mid to
upper 40s F southwest of Pecos River over the Stockton Plateau
into Rio Grande basin, mid to upper 30s F only far northern SE NM
plains, Permian Basin, and peaks of Davis Mountains, with upper
30s to lower 40s F elsewhere.

By Tuesday afternoon both deterministic and ensemble models are in
agreement that the cold front will have cleared the area, with CAA
keeping highs again in the upper 50s to lower 60s F, 50s F higher
elevations, and upper 60s to lower 70s F only along and within a few
hundred miles of the Rio Grande. With this having been a relatively
fast developing frontal feature, we are not expecting any
precipitation with the front at this time. As the cold front clears
the area and northerly winds decrease in speed and shift to
east/northeast, dew point temperatures settle into the upper 20s to
lower 30s F areawide, reduced large scale sinking motion from subtle
troughing aloft, and light drainage winds allow lows to cool back to
within a few degrees of below freezing for foothills of Marfa
Plateau, Pecos River valley of Eddy County Plains and much of Lea
County into Permian Basin, with mid to upper 30s F north of the Rio
Grande basins elsewhere, and 40s F over the Rio Grande basin.
Despite light winds and high relative humidity, especially over the
Western Low Rolling Plains, no fog/mist is expected at this time.
Even as we likely avoid high winds and any precipitation chances
Monday into Tuesday with a cooldown, temperatures will again take
some time to warm back above average. Read the long term discussion
for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The forecast remains relatively unchanged from the previous package.
A slightly cooler day is in store on Wednesday thanks to surface
northeasterly winds associated with a surface high pressure north of
the region. This will yield high temperatures in the 50s to low 60s
with the exception of areas along the Rio Grande and Presidio valley
spanning in the upper 60s to low 70s. In the upper-levels, guidance
has a shortwave trough passing near the region Wednesday afternoon.
Precipitation chances remain near zero due to the favorable ascent
and moisture for rain staying east of the forecast area. By
Wednesday night, the aforementioned surface high shifts into west
Texas. Clear skies and light winds will create ideal conditions for
radiational cooling, dropping lows in the mid 20s and mid 30s.
Temperatures warm back up from this point forward. Cluster analysis
continues to show an upper-level ridge axis beginning to develop
west of the region by Thursday. All solutions have the ridge axis
over west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday, placing highs
back in the 60s and low 70s. This upper-level pattern looks to
persist through the weekend keeping our weather dry and warmer than
normal for this time of year.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions and light winds continue this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  38  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  39  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  41  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  42  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  40  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  36  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    67  35  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     65  40  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   65  40  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     67  38  62  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10