York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

375
FXUS63 KGID 182359
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of showers with a few non-severe storms may be
  possible to develop across the area Friday afternoon (15-25%
  chances). The coverage of these showers should be more spotty
  and shorter-lived than consistent.

- The potential for severe weather will return mainly Saturday
  evening to night. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
  weather is in place across the full area.

- The strongest storms mainly across the overnight hours
  Saturday will likely possess strong to damaging wind gusts
  with a few pockets of large hail. An isolated tornado or two
  may also be possible.

- Heavy rainfall rates from the storms Saturday night may lead
  to local rainfall rates of up to 2-3+". The Tri-cities areas
  currently has an around 90% chance to receive at least 1", 80%
  chance to receive at least 2" and a 35% chance to see 3+".

- Highs for the start and middle of next week will mainly range
  the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026


Tonight and Friday....

With the last of this morning`s spotty showers now gone from the
area, the rest of the afternoon and night will be precipitation free.
In addition, clearing skies with light to calm winds will allow
overnight temperatures to fall to as low as the mid 50 to lower 60s
tonight. Aloft, the upper level jet rests right overhead with broad
ridging across the western CONUS and broad troughing across the
eastern CONUS. The help of an upstream Pacific shortwave trough and
the strengthening western U.S. ridge will later nudge the jet east.
This Pacific trough will be responsible for some severe weather and
potentially heavy rainfall implications later this week (Saturday
night).

As for Friday, light southerly winds will reestablish at the
surface. Highs, however, should not deviate much from today (low
to mid 80s: a degree or two warmer from today). A few areas of
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon as
some moisture surges northward up from the south (15-25% chances
across the area). The latest high resolution model guidance
(HRRR/RAP/NAMNEST) does not pin point much in terms of precipitation
amounts (<0.05"). These showers, though far stretching across the
area, should be fairly small and more shorter-term lived and spotty in
coverage (sort of like a more hear and there type of deal).


Saturday...

Similar temperatures Saturday (upper 70s to mid 80s highs) will be
accompanied by slightly stronger southeasterly winds blowing between
10-15MPH and gusting up to 20-30MPH. the strongest winds will be
concentrated to the west or across areas closer to the surface
pressure falls (weak surface low forming over east CO and west KS).
The main story, however, will be the potential for severe weather
Saturday evening and night as well as the risk of heavy rainfall
that could effect some hydro concerns. A slight risk of severe
weather (level 2 of 5) now covers the full area Saturday night.

The aforementioned Pacific shortwave trough across the next 2 days
will make a run over the Rockies and into the Central Plains
Saturday afternoon. This disturbance should help initiate some
afternoon and overnight storms, initially expected to form across
the Nebraska sandhills region. These (potentially severe) storms
would be steered east/southeastward and into the area by the evening
to probably more likely overnight period. Conditions wise, up to
3,000J/kg of MUCAPE with 25-45kts of bulk shear should be favorable
enough to help sustain these storms through the night. The primary
hazards that will be possible will be for strong and potentially
damaging gusty winds with areas of large hail possible in a few
places. A tornado or two also can`t be ruled out given what looks to
be a favorable low-level shear (helicity) profile.

The other concern that may need to be monitored closely will be
excessive rainfall for Saturday night. The cluster of storms that
are expected to track across our forecast area will likely bring
heavy rainfall rates as a southerly orientated moisture flux
increases the precipitable water content (1.6-2.5" PWATs). Our
forecast for precipitation amounts overnight Saturday currently
projects at least 1" across the board with a fairly wide swath of 2-
3+" rainfall amounts placed right down the center of the area. For
the Tri-Cities area, the NBM currently projects around a 95% chance
for at least 1" of precipitation, around 80% chance for at least 2"
and around 35% chance for 3+ inches. The WPC has additionally
upgraded a majority of the area now into a Moderate level 3 of 4)
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (>40% chance of rainfall amounts
exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a given point).
Due to the lack of consistent model trends so far, the desire to
issue a flood watch this shift was forgone. If our current forecast
continues to hold consistent, however, it is likely that we may need
to include a considerable portion of the area into a Flood watch for
Saturday night.


Sunday and Beyond....

Temperatures through the middle of next week look to remain somewhat
stable. Highs are currently forecast to cool down to the 70s by
Monday, with highs staying mainly in the 70s to low 80s through the
middle of next week. The long range forecast model guidance
(GFS/ECMWF) both appear to be hinting at a second shortwave
disturbance passing through the area sometime Monday through
Wednesday. This disturbance will likely bring yet another chance for
a few storms in and out of the area. Confidence drops off
substantially after Sunday as timing of any potential precipitation
diverges between the models.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry weather with VFR conditions are forecast for this overall
quiet TAF period. FEW-SCT clouds are expected to remain in the
mid-upper levels. A few models try to bring some isolated precip
into the area late in the period...not enough confidence at this
point to insert a mention. A weak surface pattern will keep
winds through the overnight hours on the light/variable
side...expected to turn more southerly during the daytime hours
Friday, with speeds around 10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...ADP