Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS63 KLBF 192007
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record temperatures are expected both Friday and Saturday,
  and this warmth will lead to near critical to critical fire
  weather concerns.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and
  north central Nebraska for Saturday due to record
  temperatures, very low relative humidity, and gusty west winds
  becoming north with the passage of a cold front.

- After briefly cooler temperatures on Sunday, temperatures
  quickly warm back to well above average into next week. This
  could bring a return of fire weather concerns to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Currently, temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s and lower
80s under mostly sunny skies. Winds have increased from the west
across western Nebraska, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 miles per
hour. With the very low humidity in place today, see no reason to
make changes to the inherited Red Flag Warning. Winds have remained
weaker further east, keeping fire concerns near critical.

For tonight, expect lows to only fall into the lower 40s, with very
poor overnight humidity recovery to only 45 to 55 percent. Yet
another warm day is in store for Friday, with highs climbing into
the lower to middle 80s across the area. This will again lead to
very low humidity tomorrow afternoon, bottoming out as low as 12 to
20 percent area wide. Weak surface high pressure centered just off
to the southwest of the area will keep winds light from the west
tomorrow, and this precludes any fire weather headlines at this
time. Highs tomorrow may approach records across western and north
central Nebraska.

Attention then turns to Saturday, which has the look of record
warmth across all of western and north central Nebraska. Anomalously
warm temperatures will be in place aloft, with H7 and H85
temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile climo and approaching
climo maximums for middle March. Very strong upper ridging will be
in place also, with H5 heights also approaching climo maximums. As
deep mixing occurs quickly tomorrow morning, compressional heating
of the warm air aloft will lead to temperatures soaring into the
lower 90s for much of the area. The deep mixing does not look to be
in question, with clear skies and increasing downslope westerly flow
in place. This will also mix very dry air to the surface, allowing
relative humidity to crater into the upper single digits to low
teens for all. Unfortunately, this combination of record temps and
very low humidity will also combine with the gusty west winds and
lead to critical fire concerns. Westerly gusts up to 30 miles per
hour will precede an approaching cold front through much of the
afternoon and early evening hours. As for the cold front, guidance
remains at odds with respect to timing of this frontal passage. A
surface low is progged to eject southeast across northern Nebraska,
reaching northwest Missouri by early Sunday morning. As this low
pushes east, the cold front is expected to move quickly from north
to south across the area. Though minor differences remain in timing,
these have largely been tightened to just a couple hours difference
(~06 to 09Z). The more certain aspect will be strengthening
northerly winds with its passage, which is widely supported across
the guidance suite. Strong cold advection will promote ample
mechanical mixing to bring higher momentum flow aloft downwards, and
lead to a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour wind gusts for all behind
the surging cold front. These continued strong north winds, along
with a sharp west to north wind shift, with prolong fire weather
concerns across the area. With this in mind, see no reason to change
the end time (4 AM CDT) of the inherited fire weather watch for
Saturday. Lows Saturday night only fall into the 40s again, with the
gusty winds helping to keep lows more mild. This also impacts
overnight humidity recovery, further supporting continuing the Red
Flag Warning into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Cooler temperatures return briefly for Sunday behind the cold front,
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. That said, these
temperatures are still near average for mid-March. Heights then
begin to rise aloft as we head into next week, with temperatures
moderating back to well above average again. Unfortunately, this
will bring a return of fire concerns, especially on Monday and
Wednesday when the strongest winds are expected. Wednesday looks
particularly concerning, as highs again may soar to near records
across much of the area. Very low humidity may overlap increasing
westerly winds, along with a threat for another cold frontal passage
sometime Wednesday into Thursday. This will need to be monitored
closely, as the early week period may bring near daily critical fire
weather conditions back to the area.

Unfortunately, no precipitation is expected across the entire area
over the next week, likely exacerbating ongoing drought conditions
as well as fire weather concerns.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow
afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Winds remain westerly this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25kts
possible west of HWY 83. Winds then become light from the
northwest tonight, at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

After poor relative humidity recovery, temperatures are going to
warm considerably on Friday, which will allow for a prolonged
period of critically low relative humidity. Winds will be lighter
and generally from the west, but still, gusts to 20 mph will be
possible across much of west central Nebraska.

Attention turns to Saturday when the region bakes under a ridge of
high pressure. It cannot be emphasized enough how warm
temperatures will be Saturday afternoon, with some locations
reaching 30-40 degrees above climatological norms. Relative
humidity values will plummet into the lower teens, if not single
digits across west central Nebraska. A cold front is scheduled to
arrive across the region Saturday evening. Prior to the front,
wind gusts from the southwest to west will increase to as strong
as 40 mph. Behind the front, gusts exceeding 40 mph with
critically low relative humidity will continue well into the early
morning hours on Sunday. A prolonged period of extreme fire
behavior would be possible with any start Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning.

Winds remain on Sunday, but cooler temperatures should prevail.
Highs will trend closer to climatology, but it will remain dry.
Temperatures to warm early next week with the potential for record
highs once again next Wednesday. There appears to be another
frontal passage next Wednesday with the possibility of very strong
winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

               Friday 03/20       Saturday 03/21

North Platte    85/83 (1997)         93/86 (1910)
Valentine       82/83 (1997)         90/84 (1910)
Broken Bow      84/82 (2004)         91/83 (1997)
Imperial        86/83 (1910)         94/87 (1907)

Forecast highs at North Platte, Imperial, and Valentine would break
all-time March records.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Jacobs
CLIMATE...Brown