Shelby, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXUS65 KTFX 041957
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
157 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - This afternoon through Tuesday there will be cooler
   temperatures with isolated rain/snow showers.

 - Wednesday through Friday it will warm back up.

 - Thursday through Saturday there will be isolated showers and
   thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern
   Montana.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there is northwest flow aloft over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a cold front
that moved through last night/early this morning will bring well-
below seasonal average temperatures to the area. This afternoon due
to the northwest flow aloft there will be isolated showers over
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This afternoon
due to a strengthening pressure gradient it will be windy. On
Tuesday an upper-level ridge begins to approach Montana and this
will bring northerly flow aloft to North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon there will be isolated
rain/snow showers across the area. Due to northerly flow aloft on
Tuesday it will be cold across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon due to an increasing
pressure gradient it will be windy across North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana with the strongest winds in north-south
orientated valleys of Southwestern Montana.

On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to
warm up with mostly dry weather. Wednesday morning due to clear
skies and the cold temperatures on Tuesday it will be chilly with
wind chills in the 10s to 20s across North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. On Thursday there will be northwest flow aloft
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will
bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana. On Friday an upper-level ridge briefly
builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
This will bring warm and mostly dry weather to the area on Friday.
On Saturday and Sunday northwest flow aloft returns to North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures to the area on
Saturday. On Sunday it will be warmer and mostly dry. -IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

On Tuesday across north-south oriented valleys of Southwestern
Montana and the Judith Gap area there is greater than a 50% chance
for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. Wednesday morning along the
Hi-Line and across the lower-elevations of Fergus and Judith
Basin Counties there is greater than a 50% chance for low
temperatures of 25 degrees or colder. Wednesday morning there is a
50% chance for wind chills to be 20 degrees or colder along the
Hi-Line. On Thursday there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder
across the majority of North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. On Friday there is a 15 - 25% chance for thunder in Hill,
Blaine, and Fergus Counties. On Saturday there is a 15 - 25%
chance for thunder across the majority of North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
04/18Z TAF Period

Broken mid-level cloud cover and areas of mountain obscuration are
likely to exist through the TAF period.

Scattered rain/virga will continue across the region with
generally little precipitation expected to reach the ground. Gusty
northerly winds will develop this afternoon with gusts up to 30kts
possible at KCTB, KHVR, KLWT, KGTF, and KEKS. Winds will taper off
during the overnight hours before picking back up towards the
afternoon hours on Tuesday with a slight chance of showers across
north-central, central, and southwest Montana.  -thor

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  34  51  28  69 /  20  40   0   0
CTB  30  50  26  69 /  10  30   0   0
HLN  35  52  30  67 /  10  30   0   0
BZN  30  51  24  63 /  40  30  10   0
WYS  28  46  19  55 /  20  30  10   0
DLN  33  52  24  65 /  20  10   0   0
HVR  27  52  24  65 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  28  46  24  59 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls