Helena Valley Northwest, MT 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

735
FXUS65 KTFX 020807
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
107 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slightly cooler temperatures today and Tuesday, but still well
   above normal.

 - Light mountain snow through Tuesday morning and then turning
   dry through the remainder of the work week.

 - Potential for record warmth from the middle to end of the work
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Northwest flow aloft will settle in over the Northern Rockies
through Tuesday in wake of the departing H500 shortwave currently
over the Northern High Plains. Winds will gradually relax through
the afternoon and evening hours today as the aforementioned
shortwave moves further to the east. Light mountain snow will linger
through Tuesday morning due to the northwest flow aloft, with
temperatures "only" warming into the mid-40s to mid-50s across
Southwest through North Central Montana (still some 10 to nearly 20
degrees above normal).

By Tuesday night the H500 ridge over the Pacific Northwest and
Western Canada will begin to build east all the while amplifying
over the Northern Rockies. This aforementioned ridge will then
become entrenched across the Western CONUS and Canada through the
remainder of the work week, bringing overall dry conditions and
the potential for record "warmth" to Southwest through North
Central Montana. - Moldan

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Temperatures from Wednesday through Friday...

Climate anomaly indicators such as the ECMWF EFIs and NAEFS continue
to support a period of exceptional warmth across all of Southwest,
Central, and North Central Montana with respect to high temperatures
for the month of February. H700 temperatures per NAEFS analysis are
prog`d to warm to between +0 to +2 degrees Celsius throughout the
period, which is anywhere from 1 to 2 standard deviations above
normal. ECMWF EFIs on Wednesday largely range from 0.8 to 0.95
across the region (EFI values in excess of 0.8 support a very
unusual or extreme event relative to climatology), with these values
climbing to 0.95 to 1 with a shift of tails of between 1 and 2 on
Thursday and Friday. NBM50TH Percentile values with respect to
high temperatures are largely in excess of 60 degrees from
Wednesday through Friday, with a 50% chance that any location
could either being warmer or cooler than the values listed in the
table below.

LOCATION        Wednesday    |     Thursday     |      Friday
Cut Bank           64F       |       71F        |       65F
Havre              56F       |       59F        |       54F
Great Falls        66F       |       72F        |       67F
Lewistown          64F       |       69F        |       68F
Helena             60F       |       65F        |       63F
Bozeman            59F       |       65F        |       67F
Dillon             59F       |       65F        |       66F

The final table below reflects the probability of breaking the
current record high temperature for select cities across North
Central, Central, and Southwest Montana on the 4th (Wednesday),
5th (Thursday), and 6th (Friday) of February.

LOCATION        Wednesday    |     Thursday     |      Friday
Cut Bank    62% breaking 63F | 84% breaking 65F | 32% breaking 66F
Havre       10% breaking 61F | 54% breaking 58F |  0% breaking 63F
Great Falls 85% breaking 62F | 94% breaking 62F | 54% breaking 65F
Lewistown   69% breaking 62F | 99% breaking 60F | 59% breaking 66F
Helena      31% breaking 61F | 60% breaking 63F |  9% breaking 67F
Bozeman     17% breaking 62F | 46% breaking 65F | 86% breaking 61F
Dillon      53% breaking 57F | 88% breaking 57F | 89% breaking 59F

- Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF Period

Gusty surface winds and mountain wave activity will be the initial
concern this TAF period, mainly over the plains. A few areas of
light precipitation continue along the Rocky Mountain Front through
the night, with a few additional areas of precipitation on the plains
through the morning Monday. Breezy winds spread across much of the
region through the day Monday before subsiding late day. Mountains
will be obscured around precipitation through Monday morning. -AM

&&

.CLIMATE...

Numerous locations have the potential of setting new all time
record high temperatures for the month of February this week. The
table below reflects the current all time record high temperature
for the month of February for select climate sites across
Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana.

LOCATION
Cut Bank    71F set on February 27, 1992
Havre       74F set on February 27, 1992
Great Falls 70F set on February 27, 1992 and February 27, 1932
Lewistown   70F set on February 27, 1932
Helena      69F set on February 24, 1995 and February 27, 1932
Bozeman     66F set on February 24, 1995
Dillon      64F set on February 27, 1988 and February 28, 1986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  54  35  52  32 /   0  10   0   0
CTB  51  34  50  30 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  49  33  50  29 /  10  20   0   0
BZN  47  31  48  25 /   0  20  10   0
WYS  35  16  36   9 /   0  20  10   0
DLN  45  30  49  26 /  10  10   0   0
HVR  51  28  48  26 /  10  10   0   0
LWT  50  31  46  25 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls