Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

903
FXUS63 KSGF 190422
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through
  Sunday. Slight risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across the
  region, but confidence in details remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level low was located over the Great Lakes region early
this afternoon with an attendant cold front sagging south
through the Ohio Valley before turning more westerly into
northern Arkansas under zonal flow aloft. On radar, widespread
precipitation was ongoing across central and southwest MO with
several embedded thunderstorms across southeast Kansas.

Scattered Showers and a Few Storms Today:

High resolution guidance shows any appreciable MUCAPE values
(500-1000 J/kg) remaining confined to southeast Kansas through
the afternoon. So far, radar returns have behaved as if this is
true with an overall weakening as convection approaches
southwest Missouri. Cannot completely rule out a strong storm
capable of producing small hail clipping portions of extreme
southeast KS and southwest MO this afternoon, but this will be
the exception rather than the rule. Precipitation will decrease
tonight as drier air filters into the area along with synoptic
scale descent.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface high pressure overspreads the area on Friday along with
seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the afternoon.
Weak shortwave energy transiting the northwest flow aloft may
allow for a few isolated showers or storms Friday night, but
confidence remains low.

Weekend Showers and Thunderstorms:

A strengthening lee-low beneath an upper-level shortwave across
the High Plains will be the focus for thunderstorm development
Saturday afternoon and evening. Some guidance suggests this
activity grows into an MCS as it shifts east. Should this occur,
Corfidi vectors suggest the northern portion of the system would
follow a more easterly storm motion, while the southern end may
follow the east-to-west instability gradient somewhere across
central/southern Missouri. From a deterministic standpoint,
inter-model and run-to-run variability in MCS track persists,
resulting in overall lower confidence.

Another shortwave and frontal system will move through the area
Sunday into early Monday, bringing additional chances for rain
and storms. Confidence in this system is actually higher than
the Saturday system, and PoPs are high (80-90%).

NBM 48-hr Rainfall Totals 7am Sat thru 7am Mon:
Prob >0.5 inch: 75-95%
Prob >1.0 inch: 60-75%
Prob >2.0 inch: 20-50%
Prob >3.0 inch: 5-30%

Note: Global models will not be able to accurately resolve
smaller mesoscale features that could result in locally higher
rainfall amounts due to the potential for training
thunderstorms, so the true flood risk will be better assessed as
we get in range of the hi-res guidance.

Mostly Dry Early Next Week:

Ensembles depict an upper-level ridge developing across the
western CONUS next week with northwest flow aloft over the
Missouri Ozarks, which should keep rain chances low. However, a
stalled front will be located south of the region, which could
open the door to some low precipitation chances across southern
Missouri. Confidence is low, and most areas will likely remain
dry through early week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are slowly moving
south across the area and will continue to move through the area
overnight pushing south of the area Friday morning. Brief period
of MVFR visibilities may be possible with the storms tonight.

Light and variable winds will develop tonight into Friday
morning then will become more east to southeasterly Friday
afternoon and evening. Mid level clouds will remain over the
area into Friday morning then will slowly clear but high clouds
will likely remain over the area through much of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Wise