Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

830
FXUS63 KSGF 191845
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
145 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures possible Friday through Sunday.

- Elevated to significant fire weather concerns Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record high temperatures possible Friday through Sunday:
 - Impacts: None
 - Details: Highs climbing into the 80s to low 90s Friday and
   Saturday.
 - Confidence: High. NBM 25th-75th percentile spreads are
   generally < 5 degrees, showing agreement among models.
 - Meteorological Analysis: Warm air continues to push into the
   region ahead of a cold front that moves through on Sunday.
   Resulting high temperatures are expected to break record
   levels at some point through the day Sunday, but the greatest
   likelihood for breaking records will be on Saturday and
   Sunday. See climate section below.

Elevated to significant fire weather concerns Sunday.
 - Impacts: Elevated fire danger, especially west of Highway 65.
 - Details: Near record highs in the 80s and low 90s starting
   Friday will persist into Sunday. MinRH values on Sunday are
   expected to be in the 20-30% range, if not a little lower,
   with several days of similar dryness preceding. Gusty winds
   are expected Sunday behind a dry cold front with forecast
   gusts of 20-35 mph.
 - Confidence: Medium-High. Ensemble probabilities for sustained
   winds > 20 mph are 30-50% along/west of Highway 65, with
   probabilities for gusts > 30 mph at 50-80%. Forecast minRH
   values of 20-30% and dry fuels due to multiple prior dry days
   are expected. These factors give an increased confidence in
   reaching at least elevated to significant fire weather
   threat.
 - Meteorological Analysis: The abnormally warm pattern will be
   disrupted by a dry cold front Sunday, but record highs are
   still expected at almost all sites on Sunday, depending on
   frontal timing. Confidence in exact temperatures has
   increased and frontal timing confidence has trended slightly
   later. Monday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s,
   but temperatures rebound back into the 60s Tuesday and
   possibly 70s by next Wednesday. No rain is forecast over the
   next 7 days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Return to above normal, possibly record, temperatures toward the
middle of next week.
 - Impacts: None.
 - Details: Highs warming back into the 80s by Wednesday next
   week.
 - Confidence: Medium. NBM 25-75th percentile spread is around
   10 degrees, but even the 25th percentile is around 80,
   indicating most of the ensemble guidance has temperatures
   above 80.
 - Meteorological Analysis: After a cold frontal disruption,
   upper ridging will build back in toward the middle of next
   week, resulting in a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026


Record High Temperatures:

March 19:
KSGF: 86/1907
KJLN: 89/1912
KVIH: 81/1995
KUNO: 81/1969

March 20:
KVIH: 83/2017
KUNO: 89/2017

March 21:
KSGF: 88/1916
KJLN: 91/1907
KVIH: 85/1904
KUNO: 79/2011

March 22:
KSGF: 88/1907
KJLN: 90/1995
KVIH: 78/1904
KUNO: 85/1997

March 25:
KSGF: 83/1910
KJLN: 88/1910
KVIH: 80/1959
KUNO: 79/2012


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus