Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXUS63 KSGF 041750
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and storms will move through the area late
  this evening into Tuesday. Showers and a few storms linger
  into Wednesday.

- There is a Marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms
  tonight into Tuesday with hail to the size to the size of
  quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A weak upper level disturbance is moving east across the plains
and will move across the area today. Some showers and maybe a
rumble of thunder may be able to develop across central Missouri
late this morning into early this afternoon with this
disturbance but most if not all locations will remain dry
through this afternoon.

Surface low pressure will remain over the central Plains today
with gusty south to southwesterly winds developing this morning
and occurring into early this evening. Wind gusts up to 35 mph
will occur at times.

A cold front will move south into the area late this
evening/tonight and move through the area pushing south through
the area by Tuesday evening. Showers and storms will likely
develop along the front this evening to the north and west of
the area and move south through the area late this evening into
the overnight hours. MUCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg will be
in place. Deep layer shear will be around 20 to 25 kts when the
storms first move into the area, and could support an isolated
damaging wind risk and a hail risk up to quarters tonight into
Tuesday morning. The front will continue to move south through
the area on Tuesday. Instability will increase ahead of the
front south of I-44 and especially across south central Missouri
Tuesday afternoon. Scattered strong to severe storms will be
possible along the front. Hail up to the size of half dollars
and damaging winds up to 60 mph will be the main risks with the
storms on Tuesday afternoon. The window for severe storms will
be short for our area as the front moves south of the area by
Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Showers and a few storms will then occur at times behind the
front Tuesday evening/night with light rain/drizzling lingering
into Wednesday as an upper level trough moves east through the
region. No severe weather is expected during this time.

The region will then be in a northwest upper level flow pattern
through the end of the week. Highs in the 50s are expected on
Wednesday with the clouds and light rain/drizzle at times. Highs
on Thursday will be in the 60s with highs in the 70s returning
by the weekend.

The ensemble model members then indicate additional rain
chances late this weekend as an upper level trough moves across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Gusty southwesterly winds at 18-22 kts and gusts up to 28-32 kts
and clear skies will prevail through at least 00Z. Conditions
will then somewhat rapidly deteriorate as a warm nose lifts into
the area from the southwest. This will trigger showers and
thunderstorms as early as 04-08Z (20-50% chance), but most
likely between 07-12Z (75-90% chance). With these storms, small
hail will be a potential hazard, but if any embedded stronger
storms impact the TAF site, hail up to quarters to golf balls
will be a low-end hazard impact (5% chance).

A cold fropa from the north will overtake the warm nose at the
time of storms occurring, which will sharply shift winds to
northeasterly sometime between 10-15Z. The copious amounts of
lift from the front and warm nose should produce numerous
light showers throughout the rest of the TAF period along with
IFR cigs (70-80% chance).


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Price