Kirkwood, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

219
FXUS63 KLSX 191949
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
249 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue at least through
  Saturday, and most likely Sunday as well.

- A cold front is expected to pass through the area Sunday
  afternoon which will bring temperatures back down to near
  normal for the start of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Relatively quiet weather with well above normal temperatures will
prevail through Friday as the Mid Mississippi Valley falls under the
influence of a strong upper level ridge centered over Arizona.
Southwest to westerly flow tonight and Friday will continue to
increase temperatures by 5 to 7 degrees with lows tonight mainly in
the mid 40s to around 50.  Guidance is showing less cloud cover on
Friday so expect strong insolation and the warmer start to the
morning to push temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak
cold front tries to push through the area Friday night, however
latest guidance shows it becoming oriented along the Mississippi
River before 12Z Saturday.  Areas to the west of the front only cool
to the low to mid 50s with upper 40s to the north and east.

Carney

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Little change to the weather occurs on Saturday with southerly flow
and strong sunshine warming temperatures into the upper 70s and low
80s across the region.  The next upstream mid level short wave moves
off the Rockies into the Plains by early Sunday morning which pushes
the surface low into the Midwest by 12Z.  Guidance continues to
narrow down the window when the front will pass through the area
with the latest runs pushing it into northeast Missouri around 18Z
and through the rest of the area by 00Z or shortly thereafter.  This
will give the majority of the area all morning and at least part of
the afternoon to warm up.  NBM highs range from the mid 70s in
northeast Missouri to the mid 80s along the Missouri river and
southwest Illinois up to around 90 across the eastern Ozarks.
Confidence in these temperatures varies across the area as guidance
members still show variability with the speed of the front.
Temperature IQRs across the eastern Ozarks are only around 3 degrees
while they jump to 8 degrees in east central Missouri, and up to 10-
13 degrees in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.  The
majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show
the front moving through with no precipitation, and forecast
soundings show a strong low level inversion and deep mixing in the
afternoon ahead of the front which supports a dry FROPA.

Strong high pressure builds into the Midwest Sunday night into
Monday.  This brings temperatures back down to near seasonal normals
for Monday and Tuesday.  The NBM temperature IQRs are around 6-8
degrees both days indicating some uncertainty, although the spreads
are tighter than Sunday in most locations.  The GFS has been moving
a mid level short wave through the Mississippi Valley with some rain
in the warm advection ahead of it for much of Missouri for the past
couple of runs.  However the GFS looks like a far outlier among the
guidance with the ECMWF staying dry and the vast majority of the
LREF members also showing no precip.  Temperatures warm back above
normal for Wednesday and Thursday, although current indications are
that it won`t be nearly as warm as tomorrow through Sunday.
Additionally there are early indications of another cold front
passage Thursday which would actually push temperatures back to near
or possibly below normal.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly
flow will prevail ahead of a weak trough of low pressure which
will drift into the are this afternoon and evening. Winds will
become light and variable as the trough drifts across the area,
and then turn back to the southwest Friday morning.

Carney

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record Highs at STL/COU/UIN for 3/19-3/22
        STL         COU         UIN
3/19    84 (1907)   81 (2012)   80 (2012)
3/20    86 (2017)   84 (2017)   81 (2012)
3/21    90 (1907)   92 (1907)   88 (1907)
3/22    88 (1907)   90 (1910)   84 (1907)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX