Gulfport, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS64 KLIX 012301
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
501 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Widespread freezing conditions are expected again tonight. Areas
  north of the I-10/12 corridor will see up to 12 hours of
  freezing conditions with temperatures as low as 25 degrees.
  Residents in these areas should continue to protect the four Ps:
  people, pets, pipes, and plants. Areas south of the interstate
  could see up to 6 hours of freezing conditions with temperatures
  as low as 28 degrees. Residents in these areas should focus on
  protecting people, pets, and plants.

- The best rain chances will be Tuesday evening into Tuesday night
  as another cold front approaches and moves into the local area.
  Rain totals are currently forecast to be less than one inch and
  no significant impacts are expected.

- Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing
  temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly
  along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Strong winds in the wake of
  the cold front will also lead to hazardous conditions across the
  coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The biggest forecast challenge in the short term is overnight
temperatures tonight. The forecast is a little tricky owing to
some competing forces at play. On the one hand, the cold and dry
airmass will remain settled over the gulf coast with the surface
high only sliding slightly southeastward. With light to calm winds
and very dry dewpoints, radiational cooling would normally be
extremely efficient. This is evidenced in MOS guidance which is
carrying lows in the low to mid 20s across most northern areas and
in the upper 20s to lower 30s most southern areas. On the other
hand, it looks like warm air advection (WAA) will set in across
the area at the 925 and 850 mb levels tonight, which tends to
inhibit cooling.

Taking a closer look at the 925-850mb WAA component, the GFS
indicates only very weak advection, with more substantial WAA
setting in after 09z. The Euro is a slightly more aggressive with
its WAA setting in closer to 06z. That being said, A LOT of
cooling can happen between sunset and the 06-09z time frame, and
don`t think the WAA will be strong enough to completely turn
things around before daybreak - especially for areas along/east of
I-55.

Deterministic NBM has consistently been on the high end of the
guidance suite with this air mass, and for the most part that has
panned out. Think it may be have adjusted a little too warm
tonight, though, considering the factors above. With that being
said, will make some minor adjustments downward, mainly across
areas east of the I-55 corridor and across portions of the south
shore where WAA will be later to begin. Normally a 1-2 degree
change wouldn`t be worth noting, but in this case, forecast lows
are sitting around freezing for southern areas and around hard
freeze for northern areas, so it does make a difference regarding
impacts.

Based on the adjustment, have upgraded the freeze watch to a
warning and have also expanded it to include most of the NOLA
metro. Have also issued a Cold Weather Advisory for St. Tammany,
and the coastal MS counties. Similar temperatures are also
forecast for Washington and Pike, Walthall, and Pearl River
Counties. However, advisory criteria in these areas is 20 degrees
rather than 25, so we won`t get there. Additionally, since this is
the third night of hard freeze messaging, everything should
already be prepped.

Faster airmass moderation sets in during the day Monday as the
high begins to slide east of the local area. Temperatures will be
near normal for Monday afternoon and Monday night, with warmer
than normal temperatures Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The warmer than normal temperatures won`t last long as another
cold front will move through the local area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Rain chances will be the highest ahead of the
front Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Generally calling for
less than an inch of rain, so we shouldn`t see any significant
issues. However, any storms that produce higher rainfall rates
could lead to localized ponding in some of the typical urban and
poor drainage areas.

In the wake of the cold front, expect another cold and dry airmass
to build into the area. It won`t be as cold as this most recent
one, but there will be at least some threat of freezing
temperatures across areas generally north of the I-10/12 corridor
Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Thursday night into
Friday morning. Current freeze probabilities are highest Thursday
morning across northwestern areas and Friday morning across
northeastern areas owing to the movement of the airmass.

Going into next weekend, the forecast honestly couldn`t look
better for the first "big" weekend of Mardi Gras parades in my
opinion. With the local area currently forecast to remain under
the influence of northwest flow aloft and a cool and dry airmass
dominating the southeastern CONUS, it looks like we`ll see
no rain with near to above normal afternoon highs mainly in the
mid to upper 60s, and overnight lows generally in the 40s.
Granted it`s about a full week out so things could certainly
change, but optimism is currently high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions in place, and expected to continue through the
valid TAF period tomorrow evening. Wind speeds are generally
expected to remain below 10 knots through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

As high pressure settles into the area, winds will continue to relax
over all waters. High pressure will dominate the area through Monday
morning before sliding eastward with return flow setting in late
Monday. The next front will push through the waters Wednesday
afternoon with a return to offshore flow. Exercise caution headlines
appear likely ahead of the front Wednesday with advisory headlines
likely its wake Wednesday evening through Thursday.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ056>060-064>068-077-087>090.

     Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...None.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
     for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...DM