Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

552
FXUS63 KFGF 041717
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler to start the week with highs in the 40s and 50s before
  60s and 70s return Thursday onwards.

&&

UPDATE
Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

No changes of significance made to messaging and fcst. Updated
aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. Windy today but based on
soundings and expected degree of mixing peak gusts look to be in
the 30-35 kt range and sustained 23-28 mph range, so close but
just shy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...Synopsis...

A shortwave will dig around Hudson Bay troughing this evening
into eastern North Dakota/Minnesota with a cold front dropping
temps from todays 70s to 40s and 50s for Monday highs. Tuesday
will the cold day of the week with highs only in the 40s as the
core of the 700mb air moves overhead with temps in the -16 to
-18C range (basically arctic by May standards). Could see
showers linger behind the front Monday and Tuesday but
accumulations will be minimal if any. Riding then starts to
build back in through the remainder of the week with highs
slowly climbing back into the 50s and 60s by Thur/Fri and even
some 70s by next weekend in the south. With these increasing
temps will once again come the chance for near critical to
critical fire weather but with a lack of signal from HDWI and
ongoing green-up for most will not focus on that too much just
yet.

-Current Red Flag/SPS

Early day concerns about a deeply mixed boundary layer with
winds being efficiently transported to the surface leading to
more widespread red flag conditions are being quelled. Winds
east of the ND/MN state border are remaining manageable at 10-15
mph with gusts occasionally over 20 mph (RH does remain and
widely 22-27%) so SPS seems to be reasonable. Further west
across ND RH is similar, though winds are slightly stronger at
15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Overall this is currently
marginal RFW conditions for ND but as RH drops another 3-5
points to near 20% this afternoon RFW will become an
increasingly correct decision.

- Rain tonight

As a cold front rolls south tonight a few showers are expected
though they will have to overcome the preceding deeply mixed and
dry boundary layer. Despite this dry air hindrance hi-res
ensembles like the HREF and RRFS both show high probs for areas
from Hallock to the Red Lakes to see > 0.10". Most areas outside
this will only see a shower or two and maybe a couple
hundredths from them. Overall while it will be a "wetting rain"
it wont do much to quell fire weather concerns later in the
week.

Additional chances for critical fire weather conditions arise
later this week. Persistent northwesterly flow continues to
contribute to downsloping and dry airmasses over our region, so
days with increasing temperatures will bring an increased risk
for critical fire conditions. The main question marks will be
wind speeds which do appear likely to meet thresholds of concern
for fire late next week with fuel status also remaining
critical. ERC percentiles are still largely high though HRB is
beginning to respond to green-up so fire spread may become
inhibited. At this time, Thursday and Friday appear to have the
greatest likelihood for critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Patchy MVFR as afternoon strato-CU continually develop and drift
SE. Have seen occasional cigs as low as 2000-2500 but most are
3500+ leading to mostly VFR. These should only increase with
sustained cold air advection and increasing BL depth. Winds
gusting near 30kts but only occasionally over 30kts with the
window for any gusts over 30kts really through about 21z or so.
otherwise NW at 20kts gusting 25-28kts this afternoon. Winds die
off tonight before increasing around 15z tomorrow. Scattered
showers as well this afternoon but confidence in near zero in
timing/placement therefore went with VCSH for all sites. Would
have gone prob30 but coverage is only about 20% of the area thus
not quite high enough to do that. Just know there is a 90+ %
chance of seeing a shower at some point in the next 8 hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT