Burnsville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXUS63 KMPX 041727
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze concerns
throughout the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be present throughout the
week, mainly due to low dew points/relative humidity. Winds will
generally be the limiting factor.

- Small chance for showers Thursday, otherwise dry weather
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds are the primary driver behind the local forecast today
thanks to efficient mixing and an inverted V lower level profile
promoting winds mixing down from aloft. Gusts heading into the early
afternoon are ranging from low to mid 20s in western Wisconsin to
30mph in western Minnesota. Dew points generally range in the 30s
with relative humidity in the 40s this afternoon as temperatures
reach the mid to upper 60s in southern Minnesota tapering to the
upper 50s in central Minnesota. The breezy winds coupled with RH int
the 40s is leading to elevated but not Red Flag fire weather
conditions this afternoon, however fires may still spread quickly
due to the strength of the winds. The concern overnight transitions
to frost/freeze as skies are expected to clear out later today,
allowing for temperatures to fall below freezing in portions of
central Minnesota and remain in the mid 30s across southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Frost/freeze headlines are
possible, however it would be a good idea to bring any sensitive
plants inside regardless as the crux of the forecast will end up
being whether we have few/scattered cloud cover or clearer, which
still has some lingering uncertainty. Winds are expected to weaken
once we lose daylight, with weaker gusts returning tomorrow.

The forecast for the remainder of the week largely remains the same
with the primary concern rotating between partially elevated fire
weather conditions during the day due to low relative humidity and
marginally breezy winds, becoming frost/freeze overnight as winds
weaken and temperatures fall into the 30s. Dew points will remain in
the 20s and 30s throughout the week with a lack of any significant
moisture advection into the region, as our large scale pattern
remains a broad upper level trough bringing northwesterly flow
suppressing the southern stream jet and any Gulf moisture to the
south. Any of the 7 day QPF maps from various model guidance will
paint a similar picture, with all of the rainfall focused over the
SE US and next to nothing for the northern plains/Great Lakes. The
longer range pattern shows hints that the upper level pattern will
finally break down in a couple weeks, which would open the door for
a more active pattern. Temperatures will be coolest this week,
especially overnight, with a general trend towards near normal
temperatures as the upper level pattern shifts towards the middle of
the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds for the first 6-10 hours of the period are the
greatest concern with a primary direction of 300-330 throughout,
with speeds starting at 15-20G30kts falling below 10kts after
02-05z. Winds will increase slightly after sunrise tomorrow,
with a few gusts to around 20kts with a similar direction by the
end of the period. VFR cigs/visibility are expected, with
100-150 level cigs towards 00z before we clear out back to
few/sct250 after sunset, followed by a return to SCT060-080
level by the end of the period.

KMSP...Gusty winds at 310-330 are the primary concern, with VFR
throughout. Mid level clouds are possible after 18z tomorrow,
generally within the 050-070 level with even a brief period of
MVFR not anticipated at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH