Waterford, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

851
FXUS63 KDTX 030059
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
759 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- Next likely chance for accumulating snow arrives Thursday night
through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...

In light of the widespread light snow, an earlier forecast update was
issued to boost evening pops. Upstream radar is showing some
semblance of a release of the low level moisture flux off Lake
Michigan. This will result in a decrease in the coverage of the
light snow/flurries which have been so persistent across the area
this evening. A secondary cold front will advance across Se Mi from
the north late tonight into Tues morning. The residual low level
moisture will warrant at least a chance for light snow
showers/flurries along this front. An additional update will be
issued later this evening when the coverage of the light snow
decreases.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 549 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

AVIATION...

Subtle sfc troughing and lingering low pressure overhead along with
low level moisture flux off Lake Michigan suggests a persistence of
flurries/light snow showers and MVFR ceilings. Visibility
restrictions in fog also look to persist given the ample low level
moisture. A secondary cold front is forecast to advance from north
to south across the area Tues morning. This will likely sustain MVFR
based clouds with some flurries. Much drier air advect into Se Mi in
the wake of this front, supporting a clearing of the low cloud deck.

For DTW...Radar trends are at least supportive of occasional
flurries/light snow showers into the evening with fluctuations
between MVFR and IFR.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday morning. Low
  Tuesday afternoon.

* High for ptype as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

Flanking axis of CVA ahead of a cold front has exited this afternoon
which has lightened snowfall rates. KDTX reflectivity returns are
also a bit weaker, compared to late morning and midday snowfall
rates. These increasingly light and scattered snow showers should
linger into the evening hours as the shallow boundary layer remains
sufficiently moist and weakly forced ahead of the passage of a cold
front. Areas of mesoscale convergence offer localized enhancements
to snow production this evening, but new accumulations should remain
AOB a quarter inch. An elevated warm front attempts to lift north of
the Michigan/Ohio state line tonight, while surface winds remain in
west flow. Additional light snow/flurry potential exists. A canopy
of cloud should improve nocturnal insulation, and keep overnight
lows between 10F and 15F.

Snow chances drop throughout the day Tuesday as high pressure builds
southeastward into the Upper Midwest. Low-level anticyclonic flow
limits the productivity of northwest flow across Lake Michigan, in
spite of ice coverage only hovering around 40 percent. Forecast
soundings and moisture progs indicate the influx of drier air from
north to south, generally between 12Z and 21Z Tuesday, with an
eroding omega signal through the drying shallow stratocumulus layer.
This does leave the southern half of the forecast area more
susceptible to pockets of light snow showers, but only through the
midday hours. Tweaked PoPs to include mentions of isolated light
snow showers. Some clearing expected Tuesday night, enough to get
lows to drop back into single digit territory.

850 mb temperatures persist in the minus double-digit (Celsius)
range on Wednesday which ensures cold conditions continue. Morning
wind chills could minimize as low as -5F. The upstream ridge axis
starts to shear out as it crosses over the Great Lakes, and the
surface circulation becomes more diffuse, lending a weakening WNW
gradient wind trend. Highest confidence of the week in a snowless
forecast Wednesday based on the lack of ascent and lowest PWATs. The
arctic airmass dislodges Thursday with lower column flow backing WSW
ahead of the next system. Lead isentropic ascent develops by
Thursday evening as light snowfall spreads southeastward. Meanwhile,
a seasonably strong jet axis will move overhead and become quasi-
stationary through the weekend with various jet enhancements and
geopotential height perturbations. Several rounds of snow are
possible Thursday night through Friday with accumulations. The most
intense low-level jet offers the gustiest winds on Friday, possibly
in excess of 35 mph.

MARINE...

Weak clipper begins to depart the region this evening tapering off
lingering light snow showers save for a few lake effect snow showers
over mainly eastern Lake Huron. Northwesterly winds develop as this
occurs tonight with strongest winds occuring over the northern and
central portions of Lake Huron given the fetch. Over these waters,
winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range
are possible over the north-central waters; which also would support
some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. High pressure
dropping out of Canada then expands over the region through midweek
promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. Another clipper
swinging out of northern Ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold
front over the central Great Lakes late Friday-Saturday. Strong
trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and
heavy freezing spray for Lake Huron.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......KDK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.