Kalamazoo, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS63 KGRR 050512
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1212 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of light snow late Friday and again Sunday

- Accumulating snow possible with systems mid to late week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

While it will be a quiet overnight period there is the potential
for record lows south of the I 96 corridor. Latest satellite
shows clouds along the lake shore and through the north portion of
the Lower Peninsula. However, clear skies, low dewpoints and
winds that should be fairly light should allow for lows to drop
near zero along and adjacent to the I-94 corridor. Clouds should
move in from the west overnight, however those clouds are expected
to infiltrate through the southern most portion of the lower
peninsula.

Forecast lows for tomorrow morning for Kalamazoo, Battle Creek
and Holland are all at or below the record for December 5th. Grand
Rapids and Muskegon would be within 5 degrees. For more
information refer to the climate section below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Periods of light snow late Friday and again Sunday

As noted previously, we are looking at a brief window of lake effect
flurries by the lakeshore this afternoon thanks to a thin layer of
convective cloudiness in the DGZ. Surface observations and satellite
indicate a land breeze induced convergence band that is slowly
pushing offshore between Little Sable Point and Holland, which
will similarly displace the area of flurries offshore.

No changes in expectations regarding the next system beginning later
Friday and Friday night. The 04/12Z HRRR looks scary in terms of
forecast reflectivity during this time, especially over Lake MI,
but this is likely related to the HRRR`s Thompson microphysics
scheme that has a penchant for creating water-coated crystals.
This yields large simulated reflectivity, but not necessarily
large precipitation rates. Best accumulations still look to be
over the northwest forecast area. Lake Michigan, being
substantially warmer than the surrounding coastal areas, will be
able to induce a thermal pressure trough that could enhance
convergence along the eastern lakeshore, but even with this in
play, we are dealing with limited moisture, sub-optimal crystal
growth, and therefore modest accumulations.

Farther south, along and south of Grand Rapids, there is a signal
for brief freezing drizzle Friday night towards midnight that,
from a time of day/week perspective, may pose limited risks, but
could still be sneaky in terms of causing slippery travel on
overpasses and other exposed areas.

Our next accumulating snow episode arrives Sunday morning. This will
be associated with somewhat more phasing between the northern and
southern streams. However, it appears that the best PV forcing
manages to bifurcate our area, meaning limited snowfall
accumulations for much of southwest Lower MI, albeit a better
chance for some snow along and south of I-96 compared to Friday
night.


- Accumulating snow possible with systems mid to late week

As noted previously, we expect at least one potentially impactful
system towards mid-week with a seasonably deep surface low expected
to cross Lower MI around Wednesday. Any time a surface low is
forecasted to cross directly over the forecast area, this often
sets the stage for a potentially diverse and complex precipitation
type forecast that is also highly susceptible to change based on
the track of the surface low. This system is no exception and will
be a chief focus for concern in the coming days.

There is a signal for yet another shortwave trough and round of
winter precipitation towards the end of the work week - but all
we can really say now is that the latter half of the week looks to
be unsettled with perhaps a favoring of more lake effect by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue through Friday afternoon. Light and
variable winds continue to shift southwest overnight and increase
to near 10 knots especially along the lakeshore. Wind gusts near
Lake Michigan over 20 knots are possible beginning late tonight.
Areas of LLWS are possible across parts of western Lower Michigan
late tonight into Friday morning.
 Stronger wind shear will move Friday night into Saturday. Snow
showers should move in between 03Z and 06Z Saturday with lower
cigs and vsbys. Expect MVFR possibly IFR cigs after 03Z for GRR,
MKG, AZO and BTL. Vsbys will lower in snow showers after 00Z for
MKG with MVFR periods, possibly IFR.



 &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Have maintained the Gale warning and added a Small Craft Advisory
for all remaining marine zones to the south that will last well
into Saturday. It still looks like the Whitehall to Pentwater
region immediately south of the Gale warning could see 2-3 hours
of gale conditions tonight, but this is a pretty borderline
situation and have therefore elected to leave things as is for
now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 724 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Overnight Min Temp Forecast and Record Lows for December 5th

                          Forecast(F)   Record(F)(Year)
            Grand Rapids       7           4 (1964)
               Kalamazoo       1           9 (2002)
            Battle Creek       1           3 (1991)
                 Lansing       5         -11 (1886)
                 Holland      10          12 (1926,1931,1991)
                Muskegon      15          10 (1926)

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LMZ844>848.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for LMZ849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ceru
DISCUSSION...TJT
AVIATION...Ostuno/Ceru
MARINE...TJT
CLIMATE...Ceru