Detroit, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

966
FXUS63 KDTX 060005
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional light snow through Friday morning, with total
  accumulations of an inch or two. A chance for freezing drizzle
  exists tonight but no significant impacts are anticipated.

- A few snow squalls are possible between Noon and 5pm Friday, as
  northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-40 MPH. Temperatures reaching
  or slightly exceeding freezing Friday afternoon will plummet Friday
  evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 F range Saturday
  morning.

- Dangerous wind chills of around 15 to 20 degrees below zero are
  likely Saturday morning before a modest warming trend occurs over
  the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of
  next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Smaller scale waves of low pressure move in from the Midwest
tonight, around the periphery of the primary system in northern
Ontario, maintaining active aviation weather tonight and Friday. The
afternoon round of light snow has led into a new flare-up this
evening which is then expected to fade toward midnight. Coverage
then wavers off and on during the late night while ceiling is
otherwise firmly in MVFR. These conditions merge with another round
of snow toward sunrise primarily in the IFR visibility range along
the terminal corridor, while more intense/LIFR snow show signs of
sliding south toward the Ohio border. The associated wave of low
pressure ushers a frontal occlusion west to east through Lower Mi
followed closely by an arctic front north to south expected to carry
at least scattered coverage of heavier snow showers/squalls. Bursts
of LIFR visibility along the front are followed by conditions
quickly improving into VFR, but at the cost of northerly wind
gusting in the 30-40 kt range through the afternoon.

For DTW... Rounds of light snow are the weather highlights for the
DTW area tonight and Friday morning, punctuated by the passage of an
arctic front by early afternoon. Flight conditions average MVFR
tonight, IFR Friday morning, and a quick improvement to VFR in the
afternoon as NW wind reaches gusts in the 30-40 kt range.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight through Friday.

* High for wind exceeding crosswind threshold (320-340) Friday
  afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026


A fairly messy forecast for the next 30 hours with as many as three
shortwave maxima and associated cyclonic circulations digging
southward in vicinity of Lower Michigan. Adding to the complexity
are forecasted moisture profiles that are residing closer at the
margins with regards to depth of saturation into the dendritic
growth zone. Trajectories and therefore incoming angle/approach of
the shortwaves and associate midlevel cyclonic circulations will
matter in the timing and duration of saturation. Low confidence
exists in the precipitation forecast and uncertainty cascades from
there regarding potential impacts.

Satellite imagery shows with broad initialization support that
differential cyclonic vorticity advection is occurring through all
of the area between 18-00z. No steep frontal feature to key in on,
rather shallowly sloped isentropic ascent between 10.0 and 15.0 kft
agl through 00z. Surface temperatures creep upward into the lower
20s offering a better than normal accumulation efficiency. Snow
accumulations of a dusting for most areas and up to a half inch in
the Tri Cities will be possible.

Early tonight...500-400mb low pressure circulation will track near
the southern basin of Lake Huron between 00-03z this evening
effectively shunting deeper moisture to the east. Forecast soundings
show midlevel dry air building downward to around 7.0 kft agl or to
approximately the -8C isotherm. Questions arise to whether or not
ice nucleation will be able to persist during the early evening and
about the potential for freezing drizzle. Lower column mean
saturation remains very high tonight, between 80-90%. Did introduce
a chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast. Little to no
confidence exists for any significant impacts if the freezing
drizzle does develop.

Late tonight...The next vorticity maximum is progged to track from
Minneapolis to Northeast Illinois by 12Z Friday morning but with a
midlevel low pressure circulation quite removed to the northeast
over Lower Michigan. This displacement of the low and the vort max
is causing all sorts of uncertainty within the model guidance. Plan
view progs of moisture on isentropic surfaces supports an additional
period of midlevel moisture advection spilling to the northeast,
tracking with the midlevel low center through the northern cwa and
the Thumb between 05-12z tonight. While model signal is not
overwhelmingly convincing, did increase 6 hourly forecasted snow to
around a few tenths to a half inch prior to 12z. Confidence is low
in any widespread impacts to the Friday morning commute. For
context, NBM 5.0 24 hour snow accumulations ending at 18Z Friday has
the 25th percentile at near 0.0 inches and the 75th percentile at
around 1.0 inch.

Friday...Lift from true differential vorticity advection will
largely remain to the south and west of Lower Michigan. Will likely
see some light snow lingering from seeder feeder processes from the
I 96 corridor southward 12-14z.  A lull is quite possible during the
midday period as some active subsidence works to dry the column
between 7.0-12.0 kft agl. The big forecast issue for the late Friday
period will be the arrival/passage of arctic front north to south
between 17-22z. Quite normal to wonder on potential snow squall
development with weak instability developing due to the shallow cold
front. At this time, the signal is not overly strong for a large
coverage. The reasoning is that convective depths and saturation
will be a struggle to extend upward into the Dendritic Growth Zone.
Additionally, northwest flow trajectories takes any moisture fluxing
off of a iced Saginaw Bay or Lake Huron off of the table. With all
of that stated, expecting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph which may cause
a blowing and drifting component to freshly falling snow so impacts
to travel and the evening commute may arise. Given the lower
coverage, the thinking is short fused products may best handle the
messaging.

Saturday morning...A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for
the morning hours with current forecasted winds holding 15 to 20
mph. Forecasted wind chills are ranging 15 to 20 degrees below zero
which would result in dangerous conditions.

A slow warmup is anticipated to close out the weekend with a better
moderation of temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures in
the midweek timeframe could reach approximately 5 degrees above
normal.

MARINE...

Low pressure tracking toward Hudson Bay leads to active marine
conditions through early Saturday morning. Current conditions are
governed by a leading upper level wave, which has generated light
snow across most of Lake Huron. Organized southwest flow generally
between 15 to 20 knots is also ongoing. This low begins to occlude
Friday morning, sending an arctic front across the Great Lakes
region mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds become
northwesterly and quickly ramp up as mixing depths rapidly increase
in the wake of strong cold advection and an elevated low level jet.
Upgraded the existing Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Watch to
Warnings with this update. Main question going forward is whether to
add in the far northern Lake Huron zone and outer Saginaw Bay, where
there is a mixed signal for stability due to the existing ice cover.
Local probabilistic guidance is trending upward, so an expansion of
the warning may be necessary in subsequent updates. Quieter
conditions arrive this weekend as high pressure fills in.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday
     for LHZ361>363-462.

     Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363-
     441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......MV


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.