Detroit, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS63 KDTX 232320
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
720 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend mid week with dry conditions expected Tuesday and
  possibly Wednesday.

- The best chance of rain and possible thunderstorms arrives
  Thursday into Thursday evening.

- Temperatures cool back down below normal on Friday before warming
  back to more normal values over the course of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure approaching from the Midwest brings decreasing clouds
and wind this evening leading to clear sky and calm wind late
tonight through sunrise Tuesday. Surface Td in the teens presents
little to no fog concerns in an otherwise ideal radiational cooling
setup that carries temperatures well down into the 20s Tuesday
morning. It`s always a good idea to monitor conditions off the west
end of Lake Erie where a stray patch of low clouds or fog could
occur early in the morning. Otherwise, high pressure drifts eastward
during the day while reaching back into the Great Lakes to maintain
dry air in the low levels while high clouds increase ahead of the
cold front entering the northern Great Lakes. SW wind increases into
the 10 to 20 knot range in the pressure gradient between systems
during the afternoon, however dry weather holds under thickening mid
and high clouds into Tuesday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less early this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds will hold through the remainder of the afternoon
while ridging aloft and surface high pressure gain greater influence
into this evening. Scattered snow showers will gradually decrease in
coverage as dry air erodes the lower level lake moisture and the
diurnal heating supporting these snow showers ends. Model data
suggest that any mention of snow showers will be mostly done by
around 8 pm this evening, so will continue to leave mention out
beyond this time. The center of the surface high pressure will slide
over Lower Michigan tonight bringing clearing skies. This should set
up a favorable radiational cooling environment. While there will be
some subtle warm air advection with the passing of the ridge axis,
low temperatures tonight should still be able to achieve lower to mid
20s for most of the area.

Tomorrow will see the surface high pressure move to the southeast as
a trailing low amplitude trough moves across Ontario and the
northern Great Lakes. This system will have minimal impact locally
with better forcing tied closer to the mid level wave. The warm air
advection will counter the increased clouds from the wave to help
lift temperatures up compared to today. Forecast afternoon
temperatures for tomorrow should reach into the 40s as 850mb
temperatures climb towards 0C.

Wednesday and Thursday will see greater warm advection ramp up each
day as stretch of zonal flow carries portions of the thermal ridge,
tied to the southwest CONUS high pressure ridge, into Michigan. This
will help push temperatures up into the 50s for most areas with some
60s near the southern border for Wednesday. For Thursday, another
jump in daytime high temperatures with upper 50s into the 60s for
bulk of southeast Michigan and some 70s achievable across the south.
Meanwhile, a lower level baroclinic zone sets up across the northern
CONUS stretching across the central Great Lakes. Embedded waves
riding the mid-upper jet within the zonal flow look to generate a
surface reflection Wednesday night into Thursday. The result will be
increasing rain chances mainly Thursday and Thursday evening along
with the prospects for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening
ahead of an advancing cold front. Cold air will offer a small chance
for some snow to mix in with the rain on the tail end of the event
late Thursday night and Friday morning. Temperatures fall back below
normal for Friday before a warming trend builds temperatures back up
over the weekend.

MARINE...

Moderate northwest winds continue into the evening as Midwestern
high pressure is slow to fully establish overhead. As a result,
Small Craft Advisories have been extended through the evening before
waves begin to lessen overnight when winds finally weaken. Said high
is quick to depart Tuesday morning as a cold front tied to northern
Ontario low pressure glances Lake Huron. The central Great Lakes
reside along the fringe of strong upper jet over the upper
Midwest/Superior through midweek offering periodic rain or rain-snow
showers and generally modest winds as low pressure systems pass just
to our north. A strong cold front is looking probable Friday
ushering in a renewed shot of strong cold advection and a chance to
reach gales for a few hours (~35% currently).

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK


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