Salisbury, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS61 KAKQ 190058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
858 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussions

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid with rain chances increasing overnight, an
isolated strong storms are possible. Locally heavy rain expected
Friday.

2) Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower humidity for the
weekend. Showers and storms return Monday.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and humid with rain chances increasing
overnight, isolated strong storms are possible. Locally heavy
rain expected Friday.

The latest analysis indicates a strong upper level trough across
the deep south, with the remnant low of Tropical Storm Arthur
slowly moving NE through AL/GA. Another sfc low pressure system
is situated over Quebec, with the associated cold front extending
into the northern mid Atlantic and OH Valley. The main H5-H7 trough
and height falls are still well SW of the local area, and this
has led to a relative lull in evening storm coverage, with intensity
further being limited with the loss of daytime heating.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts ~1500 J/Kg of ML CAPE across our
Nc zones, with little to instability farther north, though CIN
is in place area-wide. The models show a gradual increase in
CAPE overnight, with some loss of CIN noted as the 700-500mb
trough reaches into the area (at least over NE NC and far southern
VA zones). Rain chances increase overnight, and especially
closer to daybreak early Friday morning. The area remains in a
Slight Risk overnight, though with this will be conditional upon
developing greater levels of instability later tonight. At this
time, the southern areas look to have the best chc for isolated
strong to SVR storms (with straight line winds). Still think the
greater threat will be from heavy rain as the sfc cold front
drops int from the N, in tandem with the deeper moisture from
the remnants of TC Arthur moving in from the SW. This will
likely occur in a narrow band along the frontal zone, though the
warm rain processes with the tropical moisture should make for
highly efficient rain producers capable of producing briefly
impressive rain rates. Have increased QPF across the far SE and
there still may be a narrow corridor that sees 1-2" of rainfall
between sunrise and midday Friday, with locally higher totals
possible. Moisture slides offshore tomorrow afternoon, with
quick clearing from SW to NE tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
evening.



KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with seasonable temperatures and lower
humidity for the weekend. Showers and storms return Monday.

Subsidence develops in the wake of the departing low Friday
evening, with weak high pressure settling across the region for
the upcoming weekend. GEFS and Euro ensembles show PWAT values
dropping down to about 50% to 60% of normal, leading to dry Wx
and seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s and low
mainly in the 60s. The next system is set to affect the area
Monday with shower and storm chances returning, along with
higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions to start the 00Z/19 TAF period with W-SW winds
and variable cloudiness. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible after
02Z, but the coverage remains uncertain so have only gone with
VCSH wording for much of the night. A more significant surge of
moisture lifts NE into the area from the Carolinas, bringing
high probs for SHRA (and possibly a few tstms), after 06-09Z.
Have included MVFR/IFR flight restrictions area-wide from 09/12Z
to ~18-21Z Fri, lingering the longest at the SE terminals. Winds
shift to the N-NE in the aftn as conditions improve as showers
move offshore.

Outlook: Drier conditions/VFR conditions prevail Fri evening
through the upcoming weekend. Shower/storm chances return
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated SW winds continue today into tonight, with Small Craft
  Advisories remaining in effect for all waters.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore 20-60nm zone south of
  the VA/NC border this afternoon into tonight.

Deep low pressure has moved into Ontario and New England this
afternoon with a cold front extending to the SW across the Ohio
Valley. SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt are noted over the
local waters. A few gusts have approached 30 kt, mainly just
downstream of land areas where deeper mixing is present vs farther
offshore. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay with seas building to 3-4 ft.

SW winds continue this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front.
SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters. A few strong
storms remain a possibility this evening and tonight but outflow and
debris cloudiness from early morning convection over the Midwest
lends considerable uncertainty to the storm coverage and intensity
forecast. However, the environment will support the potential for
strong to severe wind gusts with any storms that manage to form. The
Gale Warning for the far offshore zone south of the VA/NC border
continues through late evening with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas will
peak this evening at 4-6 ft nearshore and 5-8 ft in the 20-60nm
zones. Winds are expected to gradually decrease after midnight
tonight with Small Craft Advisories coming to end for most of the
area around sunrise. The southern Chesapeake Bay may linger in
marginal SCA territory through mid morning.

The latest model guidance has thrown a wrench into the Friday
afternoon portion of the forecast with the remnant circulation from
TS Arthur expected to quickly translate eastward across the
Carolinas tomorrow. At the same time, the previously referenced cold
front drops southward across the local waters with W/SW flow
becoming N and NW behind the boundary. The ECMWF and NAM are farther
north or stronger with the remnant circulation, which would allow
winds to briefly increase again as the low makes its closest
approach during the afternoon. Have increased winds to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt across the southern Chesapeake Bay and adjacent
waters southward Friday afternoon. This portion of the forecast is
very low confidence, however, with the GFS continuing to show a much
weaker and more suppressed low. Will hold off on extending current
SCA headlines given substantial model disagreement but the areas of
most concern for brief SCA conditions are the southern bay, lower
James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters S of Cape Charles
Light. NW winds 10-15 kt are expected to continue into early
Saturday. High pressure builds into the region Saturday into Sunday
with southerly flow expected to strengthen ahead of the next system
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

No records were set today with highs generally in the mid 90s.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-639-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ688.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...MAM