Newton, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

835
FXUS63 KICT 161132
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
532 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  throughout the forecast period.

- Breezy northerly winds are anticipated on Thursday behind a
  frontal passage leading to fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Currently, relatively broad upper level ridging is dominating the
middle part of the the country with troughing entering western
Canada into the Pacific NW. At the surface, a low pressure system is
situated across the southern Canadian Prairies. This low will
traverse the southern portion of Canada throughout the day with
troughing extending through the U.S. Plains by this afternoon. This
system will have minimal impacts on our sensible weather other than
winds turning northerly later this evening. Afternoon highs across
the area will manage to reach into the 50s to around 60 degrees for
central Kansas with lows tonight falling to around 30 degrees
areawide.

A more meaningful short wave will move across the northern portions
of the country by mid week. A potent low pressure system will move
from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains on Wednesday and
will drag a frontal boundary across the area on Wednesday night into
Thursday. The 00Z model guidance continues to keep meaningful QPF to
our north and east with this system. Slightly cooler, near normal
temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs reaching into the
upper 40s to around 50 degrees. The main impact from this quickly
passing system will result from a tightening pressure gradient
behind the front on Thursday. This will lead to gusty northwesterly
winds with sustained winds around 25 mph and gusts upwards of 40-45
mph. These winds combined with low humidity and the overall dry
pattern we`ve seen the past month will lead to elevated fire weather
concerns on Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, upper level flow will become zonal allowing
temperatures to warm into the upper 50s and lower 60s each afternoon
under partly cloudy skies. Another quick hitting, weak system will
pass through the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Plains on
Saturday dragging an associated cold front through our area on
Saturday night. This front will act to moderate our warming trend,
bringing temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. Highs
on Sunday and Monday will reach into upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Patchy fog is beginning to develop across south-central Kansas
and is expected to expand northward. Mainly MVFR impacts are
expected with visibility around 3 miles being the primary
concern through 15Z. Patchy fog is expected to then redevelop
again tonight after 06Z for ICT and CNU.

Light southerly winds this morning will turn
southwesterly/westerly this afternoon and increase slightly.
Winds will then turn northwesterly around 00Z this evening for
central Kansas sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Northwesterly winds will strengthen on Thursday with sustained
speeds of 25 mph and gusts between 40-45 mph. Stronger winds
combined with low relative humidity could lead to very high
grassland fire danger on Thursday afternoon. However, there is some
uncertainty given the slightly cooler temperatures forecast for
Thursday as this could mitigate fire weather concerns. Very
high grassland fire danger is possible again on Friday afternoon
as southerly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are
expected. Though slightly higher RH values may negate these
concerns.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...AMD